The War on Bengal and the Party Left: The Grand Betrayal: A Quick Note

[Sukla Sen]

That Mamata Banerjee, the embattled incumbent Chief Minister of the state, was an ally of the BJP is hardly any news. 

She was, in fact, twice a minister in the Vajpayee cabinet. Kept completely mum during the Gujarat pogrom. 

But, after persistent electoral failures she effected a pretty radical shift in 2009.

Forsook BJP and instead allied with the Congress. 

Against the backdrop of her tremendously courageous fight back against the CPM misrule in the state in general and campaign of terror in Singur, Nandigram and Lalgarh in particular, it paid rich dividends. 

Would make commensurate pragmatic adjustments in government policy when in power. 

Thus Mamata became "Mumtaz Begum" in the Sanghi lexicon. 

It's just not West Bengal, by leveraging capture of power in Delhi in 2014, the BJP went on a countrywide expansion spree -- well beyond the traditional cowbelt. 

Thus displaced the Left Front dominated and led by the CPI(M) -- dislodged from power in 2011 -- as the main opposition in 2021.

In 2021, the shift was pretty radical.

The %age voteshares of the LF, TMC and the BJP, in the state polls, since 2006:

2006: LF (50.6) TMC (26.6) BJP (2 approx)

2011: LF (41.05) TMC (38.9) BJP (4)

2016: LF (19.8) TMC (44.9) BJP (10.2) / Congress (12.25 -- as a separate player)

2021: LF (5.67) TMC (47.9) BJP (38.1)

The first spike in the BJP voteshare in 2011 was preceded by two significant events: (i) the rulership in the state was in 2011 transferred from the LF to the TMC and (ii) in 2014, Narendra Modi, the BJP Supremo, became the Indian Prime Minister replacing Manmohan Singh.

For a comparison, in Bengali dominated Tripura:

2013: LF (48.1) TMC: (1.6 approx) BJP (1.5)

2018: LF (44.35) TMC (0.3) BJP (43.6)

2023: LF (25-26 approx and together with ally Congress 32 approx) TMC (0.9 approx) BJP (39)

The voting patterns over the same periods in both the states in the parliamentary polls too followed broadly similar trajectories.

The comparison rather unambiguously brings out the criticality of the change of the baton at the Centre in 2014.

Now, a look into the most major state in the immediate neighbourhood -- Assam.

2011: Congress (39.4 approx) BJP (11.5 approx)

2016: Congress (31.0 approx) BJP (29.5 approx)

2021: Congress (29.7 approx) BJP (33.2 approx)

The picture is somewhat similar. However, the decline of the original ruling party, Congress, is far less dramatic and the rise of the BJP is much less spectacular despite having a very significantly larger starting voteshare.

(Quite interesting. Undoubtedly.

Empirical facts pretty often turn out to be strikingly subversive.)

Right now, the Modi regime has launched a full-scale war on Bengal in order to unseat her.

Deeply miffed by the loss of power (and pelf) over a decade and a half ago and thus pursuing the idea of "Pehle Ram Pichhe Bam", the Ram-Bam is doing its utmost to deny that too glaring reality. Desperately trying to chip away her Muslim votes -- as many as possible. And add to BJP's Hindu votes by training its guns primarily on Mamata -- on grounds both legitimate and illegitimate.

This is in a way comparable to the role played by the CPI in 1942.

The defining difference, however, is that on that occasion it was suitably rewarded by the British colonial ruler. The ban on the Party was lifted. This time, if it succeeds, it'll also face doom together with the rest of the nation. 

That id going to be the reward!

Seized with a mysterious death wish -- to borrow from the late Girilal Jain.

Peace Is Doable