Implications of Poll Results

[Sukla Sen]

Not so bad, really, as it had appeared initially.

In fact, a mild setback for the BJP, despite the landslide in Gujarat. 

It has lost the MCD and is set to lose Himachal.

As far as Gujarat is concerned, mainly four factors appear to have worked.

I. Last time, there was a big Patel rebellion.

This time, Patels, along with Hardik Patel, are back to its fold. Not for nothing, the party installed a Patel chief minister in the run-up to the poll. Rather uncharacteristically, it was announced that he would continue even after the poll.

Still, a fraction may have strayed in the direction of the AAP. (The picture would be clearer in case any CSDS survey outcome is made available later.)

II. In the run-up, three major proposed projects were just snatched away from neighbouring Maharashtra.

III. Regardless of everything else, the Gujarati identity has come to be fused with the persona of the incumbent Prime Minister.

IV. Anti-Muslim hatred has come to be a part and parcel of the average (Hindu) Gujarati mindscape.

That's the huge elephant in the room.

Finally, it's pointless to curse the EVM or the AAP.

<https://youtu.be/N5I-xJZCoa0>

[Sukla Sen]

Thanks for the well thought out response.

Just to clarify, mine was the first tentative response, based on inadequate info.

To further clarify, I'd still hold on to the point no. 1, unless it's negated by a credible voters' opinion survey.

Just to recall, last time, the Congress had three newly acquired young leaders: Jignesh Mevani -- a Dalit activist; Hardik Patel -- a newly emerged militant Patel leader; Alpesh Thakore -- an OBC leader.

Mevani, then, had not formally joined the Congress. This time he is one of the nine(?) Working Presidents in the state.

He has probably lost -- haven't checked as yet. It's North Gujarat. The shift of Patel votes must have mattered.

The other two have gone over to the BJP, as have been done by a host of other elected ones.

(So, it was a pretty tough situation to begin with.)

As regards the point no. 2, it's actually a subsidiary point of the point no. 3.

It has further reinforced it: Aapru Modi (please excuse me, if it's less than accurate).

It won't, of course, count as a standalone factor.

On that we agree.

As far as the AAP is concerned, it, obviously, cannot harvest exclusively either BJP or Congress votes. That goes without saying.

My guess is that being a BJP lite, it'd affect the BJP more than the Congress. Those BJP voters disenchanted with the party but won't vote for the Congress --  (quite unreasonably) presumed to be a Muslim party -- would tend to vote for it.

But, again, your guess is as good as mine.

We need some credible survey.

The last point that you have made too, to me, appears to be absolutely valid.

Guess, Arjun Modhwadia has issued a statement to that effect.

In this context, on another list, Teesta Setalvad has referred to a Quint comment as under:

<<Congress' Inability To Benefit From the Anti Incumbency

In 2017, Congress party's tally of 77 seats and a vote share of 41.4 percent was its best performance in over two decades. The party, however, failed to build on the 2017 performance and has shrunk to 20 seats with a vote share of 27.04 percent.

The party has lost ground in its tribal strongholds. The tribal belt of Gujarat has 27 seats and the BJP is leading in all tribal seats.
Gujarat has a tribal population – 89.17 lakh – comprises 15 percent of its total population, as per the 2011 census data.

4. A Drop in First-Time Voters
As per EC data, Gujarat has 16 percent fewer first-time voters in 10 years. The state has seen a 60 percent rise in voters aged 50+.

Since the BJP has been in power in the state for 27 years, this data indicates that more BJP loyalists turned out to vote which might have benefited the saffron party. https://www.thequint.com/gujarat-elections/gujarat-elections-2022-six-reasons-why-bjp-managed-a-historic-victor#read-more>>

Of course, the BJP/RSS was/is steadily and diligently expanding its influence in the tribal belts -- all over the country.

Even then, it indicates failure on the part of the Congress organisation.

To sum up, on the one hand the BJP -- by taking, due and undue, advantage of its expanding and tightening grip over the various levers of the state, including the watchdog bodies -- was increasing its strength at an accelerating raate and, on the other, the Congress -- the only other national party -- was dying a slow death.

The Bharat Jodo Yatra has stated -- to be sure, only started -- bringing in a new element into the equation.

It's a hugely audacious move to change the mood of the nation -- by raising the call of "Jodo" as opposed to the incessant moves in the direction of "Todo". All at the same time, it'd, hopefully, also open up the possibility of the renewal of the Congress -- both ideologically and organisationally.

Even in the event of achieving that -- which is far from guaranteed -- it won't be too easy to overpower the BJP electorally. More so, given the situation with the ECI and the MSM, in particular.

But, that appears to be the only possible escape route from the looming doom. 

And giving up is just no option.

Sukla

Show quoted text

On Thu, Dec 8, 2022, 14:56 Dipak Dholakia <dipak.d...@gmail.com> wrote:

Good analysis but I give 50% to your point no.1 

Point no. 2 could not have made any difference. People usually do not bother about such things.

Point no. 3 and 4 are perfect.

However, the role of AAP should not be ignored. Despite the hype it was not going to sweep the poll. As the Second Hindu Rashtra party it was to project the main Hindu Rashtra party as failure but it can damage only the Congress and it did a massive damage. My brother never voted for BJP but he never liked Congress. He voted for it without conviction  This time he used the option and voted for AAP So AAP took away the Congress votes.  Congress leadership in Gujarat, like anywhere in the country is unimaginative. In crucial times it is silent and actually hides from the public. Its invisibility as a challenger also counts.

Thanks.

Dipak 

[sukl...@gmail.com]

You are receiving this message because you are a member of the community Dalits Media Watch.

View this contribution on the web site

A reply to this message will be sent to all members of Dalits Media Watch.

Reply to all community members | Unsubscribe