West Bengal 2021 Poll: Some Speculations

[Sukla Sen]

<https://m.thewire.in/article/politics/watch-mamata-banerjee-anti-incumbency-bjp-west-bengal-assembly-polls>

At one level, it echoes "Ekushe Raam / Chhaabbishe Baam!".

But, that doesn't necessarily mean it's all bogus.

Some quite sophisticated sociological explanations have been put forward: shift from "class" to "social identity".

As "influencers", techers getting replaced by (small?) contractors.

Politics of memory.

Etc., etc.

But, that's not so relevant here.

What's relevant is the claim that 2011 is going to be reenacted - with some shifts in the actors.

Now, the TMC takes the place of the CPI(M) and the BJP that of the TMC.

On the face of it, quite plausible.

But, there're a few problems here.

One, 2011 had set in well before 2009.

Had been to Haripur in 2007, as a member of a team and representing the CNDP.

Witnessed massive resistance on the ground.

Haripur itself was a no-go zone for the state.

(Btw, happened to have come across both the senior and junior Adhikari - the former in Contai and the latter in Haripur.

Our guide was (late) Harekrishna Debnath - an ally of Medha Patkar.

Debnath was leading one of the two (competing) organisations of local fishworkers - the force fighting against the proposed nuclear power plant. The other one was led by Anuradha Talwar.)

Mamata herself was on the ground leading the heroic fight in Singur and, then, Nandigram.

Medha and many others were force-multipliers.

The bulk of the radical Left had also collaborated - post-Lalgarh, in particular. 

(Tapashi Malik, in Singur, had been raped, murdered and burnt in a pit dug for the (never-to-be-built) Nano factory, at the fag end of 2006: <https://rationalistdebashis.wordpress.com/old-write-ups/singur-tapasi-malik16-years-raped-and-burnt-alive-in-singur/>.)

In 2008(?), there was Panchayat poll.

That gave out the first indication that the protective wall surrounding the Left citadel has started cracking up.

The Zilla Parishad seat from Haldia - the home turf of Lakshman Seth, the strongman and the force behind the proposed Nandigram SEZ, was won by a woman candidate of the TMC.

The crack further widened in 2009 parliamentary poll.

I'd observe, in the immediate wake of the declaration of poll results: "going beyond the immediate, given the culture of brutal violence and retribution that has been nurtured over the decades, one only shudders in terror at imagining the prospects that would follow in the event of the rather likely defeat of the Left in the next assembly election."

(Ref.: <https://www.alterinter.org/?15th-Lok-Sabha-Election-The-Right-Is-Snubbed-Left-Faces-Debacle>.)

In the following assembly poll, the Left would be routef by an alliance of the TMC and the Congress.

This time:

I. There's no (even remotely) comparable resistance on the ground.

No recognisable face representing the (absent) resistance.

II. The LF regime did nothing to allay the negative feelings generated.

The last election (2016), their candidate in Singur campaigned in a Nano car.

This time too, the poll campaign was inaugurated by performing a symbolic ground-breaking ceremony for a (whatever) industrial plant in Singur.

III. Mamata, personally, isn't identified with ground-level corruption or terror.

She does command the loyalty of large sections.

Buddhadeb - despite his, reportedly, mild and refined manners, had been indistinguishable from the state terror further aided by gangs of ununiformed armed hoods - labelled as "Harmads".

Rather she kept announcing welfare programmes till the last moment.

IV. Very much like 2011, this time as well there's a broad coalition of civil society organisations/individuals and the radical left outfits - not against the TMC, but against the BJP.

With the rise of the subalterns, even if their influences have waned, it's definitely not reduced to nullity.

V. The BJP is constantly being projected as an alien/raiding force.

(Mamata had very different sorts of negative baggage, but was also recognised as a street-fighter.)

This campaign has, in a way, acquired extra credibility when the special guest Mithun - a retired film actor, brought in to counter Mamata, in the sparsely attended Brigade meeting of Narendra Modi, suddenly broke out in Hindi to promise protection to the local Hindi-speakers.

Regardless of the fact that no one is reported to have complained about lack of security. 

On the flip side, 

I. The BJP is the party in power at the Centre - led by a "strong" PM-HM duo, that automatically inspires confidence among the followers.

II. The BJP is endowed with extraordinarily high level of resources. 

III. In the preceding parliamentary poll, the BJP could quadruple its vote-share in the state - primarily, at the cost of the Left and also Congress.

IV. The TMC also dipped from preceding 45% to 43%.

The BJP, interestingly, had raised its vote-share at the national level from 31 to 37%.

So, in absence of a fatal suicidal attack or such, the vote-share of the BJP is quite likely to come down.

Moreover, this being a state poll with Modi as the mascot - unaccompanied by a recognisable local face, the BJP should even otherwise lose (some) support, as has happened in case of other state polls post the parliamentary poll. 

V. The point, however, is that one of the most major props of a strong-arm rule is the air of invincibility.

The smallish setback that the then ruling LF had suffered in 2008 Panchayat poll woul trigger its speedy eventual collapse.

The issue is whether the 2%point dip is that *tipping point* for the TMC.

There's as yet no corroborative evidence.

Rather in the three assembly bypolls that followed the parliamentary one, the TMC staged a huge comeback.

There can be two counterarguments.

One, during these bypolls, the issue of NRC caused large-scale panic and got reflected in the outcome.

Now, the BJP having dropped the issue from its campaign line, it won't make much impact.

The second one, which has actually been offered here, is that the (massive) Amphan corruption did happen after the LS poll and this caused a tectonic shift in the ground-level sentiments.

Both these arguments are, essentially, speculative and the second one, in particular, depends on the subjectivity of an observer.

As regards that of the subject one, a sure giveaway is the way he equated Mamata's attempt at building various localised social coalitions with the BJP's bid to build a "Hindu" bloc - cemented by anti-Muslim hatred.

And, he's not the only one covering the poll and voters' mood.

Of course, the LF, and BJP, supporters are highlighting "anti-incumbency" - caused by corruption and highhanded manners of the local cadres.

But, others have not reported so much of anti-incumbency.

And the parliamentary poll, held just two years back after eight years of Mamata rule, is a very definitive reference point.

One, now, has to assess what are the changes between then and now.

The three bypolls are also to be factored in.

Btw, quite unlike the LF, in 2011, Mamata is far more alert to the challenges ahead - perhaps, thanks to Prashant Kishor.

She has dropped a number of sitting MLAs - including Arabul Islam from Bhangar, a sort of counterpart of Lakshman Seth of the CPI(M), who had reigned unhindered till the fall of the LF.

Would also imagine that the sparse attendance in BJP shows is not exactly comparable with the situation prevailing in the run-up to 2011.

And the defections from the TMC to the BJP can very well have drivers quite distinct from the sense of a looming defeat.

In this context, the quantum of votes the LF-Congress-ISF alliance(?) is going to gain or lose as compared to the preceding occasion would also be a factor.

Let's see and, in the meanwhile, keep doing our bits.