COP26: A Damp Squib (or Fiasco) in-the-making?

[Sukla Sen]

The ongoing show is pretty much on the verge of the scheduled end 

The last (even if somewhat doubtful) chance to avert disaster slowly slipping out of hand!!!?

The voice of the "Climate Vulnerable Forum" group of 48 countries must be heard and paid attention to with all the seriousness that it deserves.

The group is the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the whole of humanity.

<<After nearly two weeks of talks, the almost 200 countries represented at the summit remain at odds over a range of issues from how rich nations should compensate poor ones for damage caused by climate-driven disasters to how often nations should be required to update their emissions pledges.

“There is still a lot more work to be done,” Alok Sharma, Britain’s president of the COP26 summit, told reporters on Thursday about the state of negotiations.

The COP26 conference set out with a core aim: to keep alive the 2015 Paris Agreement’s aspirational target to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and avoid the worst impacts of climate change [and it's just about 0.5° C away].

But under countries’ current pledges to cut emissions this decade, researchers say the world would hit levels of global warming far beyond that limit, unleashing catastrophic sea level rises, floods and droughts.

While there’s little hope that new promises will appear in the final day of talks to bridge that gap, negotiators are attempting to impose new requirements that could force countries to hike their pledges in future, hopefully fast enough to keep the 1.5C goal within reach.

A draft of the COP26 deal circulated earlier this week, for example, would force countries to upgrade their climate targets in 2022, something climate-vulnerable nations hope they can strengthen into forced annual reviews to ensure the globe remains on track.>>

(Excerpted from: <https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/pressure-mounts-un-climate-negotiations-enter-final-day-2021-11-12/>.)

In Paris, it may be recalled, Barack Obama had, in a very big way, immersed himself in the talks so as to hammer out an agreement.

This time, there's no Obama - to steer; not by the furthest stretch.

For further updates:

I/III. "India, China and 20 Other Nations are Dead Set Against COP26 Draft on Climate Mitigation. Here's Why" at <https://www.news18.com/amp/news/india/india-china-and-20-other-nations-are-dead-set-against-cop26-draft-on-climate-mitigation-heres-why-4433636.html>.

II/III. <https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/cop26-amid-debates-final-deal-eludes-glasgow-climate-talks/article37458970.ece>.

III.

<<A second draft of the outcome of the Cop26 climate summit has been published. It will be subject to many further revisions before the final outcome is published, probably on Saturday or even Sunday.

Key provisions are still in there, including one calling for countries to return to the negotiating table next year because current targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the tougher of two goals in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

There is also a reference to phasing out coal and fossil fuel subsidies, which has not been substantially weakened, though some civil society groups have complained that it should be stronger.>>

(Excerpted from: <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2021/nov/12/the-changes-to-the-cop26-draft-text-and-what-they-mean?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other>.)

So, let's wait and watch whether something more meaningful than a merely face-saving text can still be salvaged.

For a backgrounder: 'Earth, Its Ecology and Human Footprints – The Necessary Struggle' by Sukla Sen at <http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article13133>.

In this context, it'd be pertinent to keep the following in mind.

The earth's ecology performs two major life-sustaining functions: (i) as a vast, but not unlimited, reservoir of useful resources and (ii) a huge - but, again, not limitless, sink to absorb harmful wastes - solid, liquid and gaseous, almost without exception, produced by the living inhabitants of the planet.

In the event, both the extraction of non-renewable resources and dumping of waste products are, almost entirely, the doings of humans - in course of their "economic activities".

While in pre-industrial societies the "economy" used to grow only at simple rates, "industrial civilisation" has changed all that. Now it grows at compound rates and so do (broadly) the rates of "extraction" and "dumping".

In case the "economy" grows @3%, it doubles in (less than) 25 years, (more than) 4 times in 50 years, 16 times in 100 years and 256 times in 200 years.

Incidentally, the long term growth rate of the "global economy" is round about 3%.

The earth's life-sustaining "ecology" has now, as a result, started to collapse.

That's, precisely, the very long and short of it.

The "climate crisis" is a definitive indicator that the "sink" has started sinking.