Bihar Poll and Its Stunning Outcome: Dipankar Bhattacharya Calls for Investigation and Introspection

[Sukla Sen]

Here's Dipankar Bhattacharya: <https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/bihar-polls-an-abnormal-unnatural-result/20251114.htm>.

In my own estimate, there are three primary factors:

I. Severe mutilation of the voters' lists, tagged as SIR -- with wanton deletions and additions -- done by the ECI.

(In all 68.5 lakh were deleted and 21.5 lakh added. 

Thus the net deletion from the last (summarily) revised list published as recently as in January 24 is 47 lakh.

This had listed approximately 7.64 crore electors, reflecting an increase of about 12.09 lakh voters from the previous roll.)

II. Phased cash transfer of Rs 10,000 to each of 75 lakh listed women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana that commenced on September 26 and still continues. Very much overlapping with the poll process. As it appears, maximum beneficiaries received their amounts in October -- very much on the eve of casting their votes.

III. The prolonged wranglings among the Mahagathbandhan partners over seat allocations -- eventually resulting in "friendly fights" in about 12 seats -- denting the credibility of the alliance as a cohesive bloc.

The ruling alliance, despite considerable tensions, could apparently avert that.

And all these three, in combination, came on top of the constantly running theme of noxious communal propaganda.

In the meanwhile the final results are in.

BJP: 89 (with 101 seats contested) (Vote share: 20.08%)

JD(U): 88 (with 101 seats contested) (Vote share: 19.25%)

(For both, the strike rate is just a tad below 90%. That's quite extraordinary.)

RJD: 25 (with 145 seats contested) (23.00% vote share)

LJPRV: 19 (with 29 seats contested) (4.97% vote share)

Congress: 6 (with 61 seats contested) (8.71% vote share)

AIMIM: 5 (1.85% vote share with 25(?) seats contested)

HAMS: 5

RSHTLKM: 4

CPI(ML)(L): 2 (with 20 seats contested) (2.84% vote share)

IIP: 1

CPI(M): 1

BSP: 1

The sharp (and unprecedented?) spike in the polling percentage this time surely presaged a wave.

Of course its direction was not known.

The overall voter turnout of 67.13% this time is the highest in the state's history since 1951. This represents a significant spike of 9.84 percentage points compared to the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, which had an overall turnout of 57.29%. It also marks an even sharper increase of approximately 10.85 percentage points over the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, where turnout stood at 56.28%.

Now, it's fairly evident that the disbursals of cash to (a very large number of) voters, virtually on the very eve of casting votes, did the trick.

Women achieved 71.6% turnout (vs. 62.8% for men), outpacing male participation by 8.8 percentage points -- the widest gender gap on record. This translated to over 2.51 crore women voters (50.4% of total votes cast), despite comprising just 47.2% of the electorate.

In the preceding assembly poll, female voter turnout reached 59.7%, outpacing male turnout of 54.6% by 5.1 percentage points.

That indicates how Nitish Kumar has further consolidated his hold over women voters.

This -- the last moment disbursal of benefits -- adds yet another dimension to the election process that deserves serious consideration.

Sukla

Peace Is Doable