'The Bengal Election - Who's Winning?' Some Very Valuable Data Crunching
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Sukla Sen
Dec 22, 2020, 3:03:54 AM12/22/20
to foil-l
[A goldmine of relevant data.
What it, however, completely misses that there were two (critical) - just not one, factors underlying the spectacular victory of the BJP in the last parliamentary poll.
On top of Modi's popularity - Hindutva+charisma, there was Pulwama-Balakot, triggering an upsurge in jingoistic nationalism.
The second factor was/is, obviously, absent in the assembly polls - before or after.
Added to that, the higher salience of the local issues somewhat dim the "charisma" bit of the "leader".
That's why: One Nation, One Election!
But, then, there're more things in heaven and earth.
That's why a poll prediction is always a tricky business, that too, months in advance.
"Events" may have huge impact.
Pulwama-Balakot is a graphic illustration (ref.: <https://docs.google.com/.../2PACX-1vSX4J7wt12TDUlBKNQ.../pub>).]
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/the-bengal-election-whos-winning-2341797?amp=1&akamai-rum=off&fbclid=IwAR1_NEwu1oqXnhyIvbFEh4wbZPUgonmS3xzpdwbToPN5oT1hW3i7pJOeeMs
The Bengal Election - Who's Winning?
NDTV Election DeskUpdated: December 22, 2020 9:29 am IST
Snipped
-- What it, however, completely misses that there were two (critical) - just not one, factors underlying the spectacular victory of the BJP in the last parliamentary poll.
On top of Modi's popularity - Hindutva+charisma, there was Pulwama-Balakot, triggering an upsurge in jingoistic nationalism.
The second factor was/is, obviously, absent in the assembly polls - before or after.
Added to that, the higher salience of the local issues somewhat dim the "charisma" bit of the "leader".
That's why: One Nation, One Election!
But, then, there're more things in heaven and earth.
That's why a poll prediction is always a tricky business, that too, months in advance.
"Events" may have huge impact.
Pulwama-Balakot is a graphic illustration (ref.: <https://docs.google.com/.../2PACX-1vSX4J7wt12TDUlBKNQ.../pub>).]
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/the-bengal-election-whos-winning-2341797?amp=1&akamai-rum=off&fbclid=IwAR1_NEwu1oqXnhyIvbFEh4wbZPUgonmS3xzpdwbToPN5oT1hW3i7pJOeeMs
The Bengal Election - Who's Winning?
NDTV Election DeskUpdated: December 22, 2020 9:29 am IST
Snipped
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