Re: Sea Ice Loss Stuns Scientists

[Sam Carana]

Posted by Sam Carana, as original message was removed for technical
reasons.

Hi,

An interesting question. There is biomass stored in permafrost, of
frozen tundra type, ready to decompose through biological processes -
both aerobically producing CO2 and anaerobically producing methane,
with the latter likely to predominate. Then there are clathrates -
formed from a low temperature mixture of methane and water under
pressure. The methane is released when the temperature rises or
pressure reduced. There is a further complication in that some
methane released will be converted to CO2 by bacteria before it
reaches the atmosphere. So I don't suppose anybody knows the answer
to your question! From press coverage, there seems to have been more
concern about the methane from land permafrost, until recently when
methane bubbling from lakes and shallow seas has been in the news.

But I'm copying this to David Lawrence, who might throw some better
light on the current situation. I'm also copying to signatories of
the letter.

Regards,

John

========== in response to: ============
> What percentage from the methane release that will result from warmer
> arctic temperatures will be abiogenic and what percentage will be the
> result of new living organisms?
>
> Posted Jul 5, 2010, by:
> InventorofcenturyXXI

[Sam Carana]

Open letter on Arctic Sea Ice Loss


The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror to reflect sunlight back
into space and cool the Earth. The sea ice has been retreating far
faster than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
predicted only three years ago [1]. After the record retreat in
September 2007, many scientists revised there predictions for the date
of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean from beyond the end of century
to beyond 2030. Only a few scientists predicted this event for the
coming decade, and they were ridiculed.

In 2008 and 2009 there was only a slight recovery in end-summer sea
ice extent, and it appears that the minimum 2010 extent will be close
to a new record [2]. However the evidence from PIOMAS is that there
has been a very sharp decline in ice volume [3], which is very
worrying.

The Arctic warming is now accelerating, and we can expect permafrost
to release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards,
which could lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt
climate change. All this could become apparent if the sea ice
retreats further than ever before this summer. We could be
approaching a point of no return unless emergency action is taken.

We suggest that the current situation should be treated as a warning
for us all. The world community must rethink its attitude to fighting
global warming only by cutting greenhouse gas emissions sharply. Even
if emissions could be cut to zero, the existing CO2 in the atmosphere
would continue to warm the planet for many decades.

Geoengineering now appears the only means to cool the Arctic quickly
enough. A geoengineering project of the intensity of the Manhattan
Project is urgently needed to guard against a global catastrophe. A
multi-disciplinary team of scientists and engineers should be tasked
and resourced to assess the evolving situation in the Arctic and
implement a strategy of parellel research, development, preparation
and deployment for different geoengineering techniques, such as to
minimise the risk of failure.



Yours sincerely,
John Nissen, MA (Cantab) Natural Sciences, Director of Cloudworld Ltd
Email j...@cloudworld.co.uk for correspondence


Other signatories

Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering, Edinburgh
University

Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Head of the Polar Ocean
Physics Group, Cambridge University

Gregory Benford, Professor of Physics, University of California,
Irvine

John Gorman, MA (Cantab), Chartered Engineer MIMechE, MIET - UK

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS, FIPC Co-Ordinator, Greenland Ice Stability
Project

Sam Carana, contributor to Feebate.net and geo-
engineering.blogspot.com



References

[1] Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Stroeve et al, May
2007
http://www.smithpa.demon.co.uk/GRL%20Arctic%20Ice.pdf

[2] NSIDC daily images - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder,
Colorado
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

[3] Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS),
University of Washington.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure5.png