FW: Roy Wasson's Renewable Energy Fund Weekly Update #105
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From: Don Johnston
[mailto:d...@wassonandassociates.com]
Sent: Friday, May 02, 2008 4:37 PM
To: Paul Farren
Subject: Roy Wasson's Renewable
Energy Fund Weekly Update #105
RENEWABLE ENERGY FUND WEEKLY UPDATE # 105
by Roy D. Wasson,
Founder & Fund Manager
A. Introduction:
Greetings to our Fund investors and other readers who support the goals of the Renewable Energy Fund:
—Energy Independence: Reducing and eventually eliminating America’s dependence on energy supplied by unfriendly, oil-exporting nations;
—Cleaner Environment: Reducing air pollution/greenhouse gases and reversing global warming thru efficiency, reduced consumption and alternative fuels;
—Affordable Energy: Supporting efficient green technologies to bring down cost of vehicle fuels, home and business lighting and heating/air conditioning;
—Restructured Agricultural Economy: Encouraging farmers to grow new energy crops, instead of paying them not to grow, while increasing food availability;
—Profitable, Socially-Responsible Investing: Making money the clean and green way!
This week’s update concerns recent news affecting the areas of wind energy, harnessing tidal power, and producing electricity from sunlight.
B. Wind Energy From Floating, Offshore Platforms:
Although European countries and some of America’s sparsely populated western states have found that wind energy provides an effective replacement for much of the fossil fuel and nuclear electrical power used in home and industry, most of America has yet to wake up to the promise of non-polluting wind power as a replacement for coal-burning and nuclear energy plants. A good deal of the problem is the NIMBY (“Not In My Backyard”) effect. Many people say that they do not want the sight of numerous large towers with protruding turbine blades blocking their view of the countryside and sky.
Some significant wind energy fields have been created by fixed offshore platforms capturing wind blowing over the oceans, miles away from land. Offshore wind energy fields provide advantages in addition to avoiding the NIMBY objection. Winds over the oceans often are more constant in speed and direction than winds over land areas. However, such fixed offshore wind farms have their share of disadvantages as well.
To begin with, it is technically very difficult and expensive to build special foundations rooted on the seafloor to permanently anchor wind turbines high enough to capture breezes far above the waves. In addition to the cost and difficulty of installing such structures, underwater maintenance provides its share of difficulties as well. To address these challenges, innovative minds are working to perfect floating offshore wind farms.
“WindSea” is the project name of Norwegian engineering company Force Technology. The WindSea system is an unmanned, floating structure that is self-orienting toward the wind designed to provide excellent dynamic response to both wave and wind changes, with safety and reliability. Force Technology plans to install an initial WindSea system using three wind turbines of 3.2mw each, scalable to 5mw immediately. The company plans to offer substantially larger systems in the future. The installation is designed to operate in water depths from 100 feet up to 1,000 feet or more. The system is anchored to the seabed, with a central rotary mechanism integrated at platform level on the surface, allowing the WindSea turbines to rotate with the prevailing winds.
Another innovative company called Blue H Technology, based in the Netherlands, also has developed a floating turbine system to be anchored off the southern Italian coast in water depths of more than 350 feet. Sporting a wind turbine system supplied by Wind Energy Solutions, the 80kw, two-blade variable speed system has a teetering rotor hub and unusual yaw-control system that permits the rotor to gradually turn away from the wind as wind speed increases, and to turn back into the wind at low and medium speeds, helping to maintain consistent output regardless of changes in the wind speed and direction.
Other companies also are working to develop technology to capture the inexhaustible power of the wind over the oceans stating for more developments in this new field. Stay tuned for further developments.
C. Solar Energy to Become More Affordable:
High prices for materials and technology have kept solar photovoltaic (PV) systems out of reach for most people and businesses. A story by Kevin Bullis in the MIT Technology Review predicts that the silicon shortage that has kept solar energy expensive is ending, potentially leading to widespread expansion in PV system usage worldwide. Here’s that story by Mr. Bullis:
|
“Solar electricity is about to get much cheaper, industry analysts predict, because a shortage of the silicon used in solar panels is almost over. That could lead to a sharp drop in prices over the next couple of years, making solar electricity comparable to power from the grid. High demand generated by government subsidies worldwide and a shortage of processed silicon have kept prices for solar-generated power much higher than average electricity prices over the past few years. Solar power is more than three times the cost of electricity from conventional sources, according to figures from the industry tracking firm Solarbuzz and the United States' Energy Information Administration. Solar power cost about $4 a watt in the early 2000s, but silicon shortages, which began in 2005, have pushed up prices to more than $4.80 per watt, according to Solarbuzz. Crystalline silicon has long been the staple of the semiconductor industry. But it's also the active material in the most common type of solar panel, and the increased use of solar power has led to the shortage of the material. Indeed, the growth in silicon production hasn't kept pace with the rise in solar power. "It takes about two or three years to add capacity," says Travis Bradford, an industry analyst for the Prometheus Institute. The shortage has been severe enough to drive up silicon prices to more than 10 times normal levels, to $450 a kilogram, adds Ted Sullivan, an analyst at Lux Research. The added silicon production capacity is now starting to begin operations. While only 15,000 tons of silicon were available for use in solar cells in 2005, by 2010, this number could grow to 123,000 tons, Sullivan says. And that will allow existing and planned production of solar panels to ramp up, increasing supply. "What that means, practically, is that [solar] module prices are going to come down pretty dramatically in the next two or three years," Bradford says. A report from Michael Rogol, an analyst at Photon Consulting, says that demand for solar panels will quickly rise in response to even slightly cheaper prices, holding the price drop between 2007 and 2010 to a mere 20 percent. But others think that the demand will have trouble responding quickly to lower prices. That's in part because the market for solar has been generated by government subsidies, especially in countries such as Germany and Spain, and there are limits to how fast these subsidized markets can grow. Regardless of the growth in demand, Bradford predicts that over the next couple of years, production of solar panels will double each year. In a recent presentation, Bradford said that prices for solar panels could drop by as much as 50 percent from 2006 to 2010. In areas that get a lot of sun, that will translate to solar electricity costs of about 10 cents per kilowatt hour, matching the average price of electricity in the United States. That will make solar affordable and, eventually, will vastly increase the market, Bradford says. "You can't even begin to imagine the transformation that that's going to create."” |
D. Tapping Tidal Currents for Electric Power:
A problem with solar power is that the sun does not shine at night and goes behind the clouds many days out of the year in most parts of the world. On the other hand, ocean waves keep breaking on beaches and tides and currents keep flowing 24/7, providing promise of a constant clean energy source, if technology can be perfected to capture the ocean’s energy at a reasonable price. The following is a report written by Brian Wagner for the Voice of America published on the Renewable Energy World.com Online website:
“The same energy that drives ocean waves and currents may be a rich source of electrical power. Researchers in Florida say even gentle flows of two or three knots are enough to drive a propeller attached to an underwater turbine. Advocates say ocean power could be cheap and help and replace oil or coal-based systems that are blamed for global warming.
Douglas Bedgood is president of Keys Hydro Power and says he wants to build a turbine farm in the Florida Keys, ‘We could upscale this to 10 feet across and it would be perfect.’
The goal is to harness the energy produced by the rise and fall of waters during the tidal cycle. His group is working on a test turbine that it plans to submerge in a site about [thirty feet] under water between two islands.
By the end of 2008 or early 2009, we will have several [turbines] just to see how we can manage them as a group. Then another year after, it will be several hundred,” Bedgood said.
The first step, however, is to show authorities that the groundbreaking project will not damage wildlife or coastal resources in the popular tourist area. Bedgood says marine life should be unharmed. “For manatees and turtles, our turbines will be mounted up off the [ocean] floor, so they can maneuver through them. And the leading edges of any moving part will have foam rubber cushions on them,” he explains.
Renewable energy projects like this one aim to reduce existing strains on the earth’s resources, but they do raise concern about causing new problems. Kenny Broad is a professor at the Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science near Miami. He says new initiatives should proceed with caution.
Take small steps at first, try to favor things that are reversible, as opposed to just going for it,” recommends Broad. ‘We are all attracted to clean technologies, and we need to develop and promote clean technologies, but in a responsible way.’
Similar projects are planned in Europe and other U.S. cities. Just 300 kilometers from Key West, researchers at Florida Atlantic University want to tap the powerful Gulf Stream current that brings warm water north into the Atlantic Ocean.
‘So it is a significant velocity with the equivalent energy of some of the world’s richest energy sites,’ says Rick Driscoll, who is head of the university’s Center for equipment that can withstand the intense forces of the current. ‘It is a lot more challenging to put something in the ocean, and certainly any energy system to go in there has to work and be competitive with existing land-based technologies,’ notes Driscoll.
He says more investment is needed for new technologies. ‘There is a lot of significant potential, but there is a limited supply of money out there right now,’ he adds.
Driscoll says federal and state funding could help U.S. researchers perfect the new technologies and bring the benefits to other countries around the world.”
E. Conclusion:
That=s all for this week’s Update, except to remind our readers that the Renewable Energy Fund is a private investment fund accepting new investors who would like to invest in a single fund with shares in solar energy companies, wind power utilities, geothermal ventures, and other companies making and using alternative fuels, including biofuels. Until next week,
Keep Clean and Green,
Roy D. Wasson
Attorney at Law
Fund Manager
Renewable Energy Fund
5901 SW 74th St, Suite 205
Miami, FL 33143
facsimile (305) 666-0010