Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios
The big picture: Economists have theorized for a while about the impact of COVID deaths on the labor market. Now,
research has started to emerge and key public figures like Powell are starting to talk about it explicitly.
- "Close
to a half a million who would have been working ... died from COVID,"
Powell said while talking about the U.S. labor shortage.
- Go deeper: In a footnote to a speech he gave on Nov. 30, Powell estimates that 400,000 working-age Americans died in excess of what was anticipated pre-pandemic.
State of play: Compared to pre-pandemic projections, there are around 3.5 million people effectively missing from the American workforce, as
Powell explained in that speech at the
Brookings Institution.
- This
number includes older workers who left the labor force earlier than
expected. "These excess retirements might now account for more than 2
million of the ... shortfall," he said.
- The other 1.5 million comes from a decline in immigration and "a surge in deaths."
- Overall, 1.09 million Americans lost their lives to COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins data.
💭 Our thought bubble: The role these deaths play in the economy often gets overlooked, possibly because it's so devastating to contemplate.
- But when considering the state of the U.S. workplace,
it's worth remembering that many Americans lost colleagues, friends and
loved ones over the past few years. It's a toll that will take many
years to understand and lifetimes to grieve.