After some experimentation, it seems that the integral version of the W' chart just does not make sense. Using it to view the W'bal from a criterium shows me going far into negative territory for my estimated W' (19kJ). If I make major modifications to FTP, W', or both, I can force the chart to make sense. Using those same parameters to then view a training ride where I went just as hard at certain points but took it easy for most of the time, the W'bal chart indicates that I barely tried. I think this highlights a critical mistake in the model and upon examination of the formulas involved, it becomes fairly clear that a ride dependent tau is to blame. By definition, it is the half-life of recovery time and I see no reason this should vary so extremely from one ride to the next and it definitely shouldn't be affected by my decision to ride easy back home after doing some hard hill repeats. I know actual clinical tests would have to be done to verify this, but I think tau should be only mildly variable (like FTP or W').
Of course there is the differential model which has none of these problems, but the way it is currently coded it has a constant tau (tau = W'/CP). I'd like to propose a minor change to the implementation of the differential model to include the configured tau from the options:
Instead of recovering with formula: W = W + (CP-smoothed.value(t))*(WPRIME-W)/WPRIME;
I propose recovering with formula:
W = W + (CP-smoothed.value(t))/CP*(WPRIME-W)/TAU;
This gives the same model if tau is configured to be equal to W'/CP, but allows people with slower (or faster) recovery time to use the more consistent differential model.
The only question this raises is how to determine one's personal tau value. The most obvious answer to me is to use the established formula, but use information from the mean maximal cp chart instead. Again, this would have to be verified by some actual clinical testing.
Let the debate begin