Hi Martin,
As mentioned by Ale, once you divide your y by the TRIMP @ LTHR you would probably get closer to the default values.
My recent analysis may be of help to you.
I am cycling with power (through my power meter) and heart rate indoors, and with only heart rate outdoors. I know my TSS using BikeScore and TRIMP are quite off from one another when I have both heart rate and power readings. I was then interested in seeing if I could use my indoor rides to better estimate the outdoor TRIMP, in order to improve the outdoors contribution to my PMC Stress. Here are my findings :
1. I made a linear regression using BikeScore as a target, and time in each zone as predictors. The coefficients of the regression would then be the stress associated to 1 extra unit of time in a given zone. However some higher coefficients are negative, and there is reversal in the magnitude of lower coefficients.
i. I may not ride enough or have enough variety in my rides to get meaningful k estimates. The higher zones are quite thin in data volume, and the lower zones are probably biased by some noise : warmups for higher intensity rides, fitting sessions where my heart rate is sometimes erratic, etc.
2. Knowing the 1st finding, I tried to see if I could now do a slightly different regression : predict TSS using TRIMP_Zonal_Points as the sole predictor. Since the default k coefficients have desirable properties (positive, monotonic increasing, most likely the result of in depth analysis/measurement), I thought I could leverage that score to predict TSS.
i. Turns out the R^2 is close to 0.87-0.88 depending on the time periods I choose. Using your own rides, you could then determine an intercept and slope and predict TSS using the TRIMP_Zonal_Points that uses the default coefficients
ii. I tried a different approach knowing weakness 1(ii) : predict TSS using TRIMP_100 instead. The R^2 was even better! Around 0.94-0.95. So you could do the same thing : TSS = intercept + slope * TRIMP_100.
iii. I don't often do interval training, so that probably explains why TRIMP_100 picks up the signal better → it is better at picking up a notion of average heart rate for the ride, whereas TRIMP_Zonal_Points would be better at picking up the notion of variability since the coefficients are not linear (just like TSS).
My conclusion would be (of course, only based on my logs being a single data point) : since both TRIMP are a very good predictor of TSS, maybe you're good sticking with TRIMP as your PMC input. My issue comes from the fact that I want to add metrics that are on 2 different scales (hence the need for regressing 1 against the other to scale them, or to find decent K coefficients). But you mentioned using heart rate only, so most likely all your activities would be on a consistent scale.
Also, I assume you are running, not cycling, since you mention pace. If so, you might want to validate my findings on your own logs which hopefully have activities with both power and heart rate.
Hopefully that helps!
Laurent