Hi Guys, to give a little more context, Friel is actually on the right track, but in his blog he just doesn't explain it properly. He doesn't give an underlying mechanism and secondly, he doesn't really even clearly define what he thinks "aerobic endurance" even means. So it leaves the reader just thinking that "endurance" can be estimated by cardiovascular drift, which can be misleading.
A key adaptation to endurance training is changes in blood volume, which is made up of both plasma volume and red cell mass. When blood volume is greater, it enables better matching between thermoregulation and oxygen delivery to the muscle, because either more blood can be diverted to skin (which cools us down) or a lower proportion of total blood volume needs to go to skin, which thus leaves more for oxygen delivery to muscle. Only the red cells carry oxygen though. So if your red cell mass increases and you can deliver more oxygen to the muscle, this will tend to improve metabolic stability at higher level of energy demand = higher threshold power. Increasing red cell mass from endurance training is a relatively slow process so there is a slow improvement in CV drift resulting from the slow increase in RCM.
However, plasma volume can also be altered with both training and dehydration. Training (esp in the heat) induces rapid plasma volume expansion. For example, last year I piloted a heat acclimation protocol in our heat chamber. In the space of 4-5 days I had huge increases in power for a given HR ie: I had big changes in "aerobic decoupling" however, clearly 4-5 days is not long enough to develop big changes in "aerobic endurance". During stage racing, we generally always see quite large decrease in Hct which indicates rapid plasma volume expansion. Plasma volume expansion (or reduction via dehydration) as a dominant effect on CV drift.
What I define as "aerobic endurance" though has more to do with fat versus CHO metabolism. High volume aerobic base training induces improvements in fat metabolism. This has a glycogen sparing effect. Therefore, at a given percentage of threshold power, better "aerobic endurance" implies (at least to me), lower rates of glycogen depletion. This improves the ability to maintain high intensity power after a long day in the saddle. The shift in substrate metabolism might be reflected in changes in CV drift, but any such effect would be masked by the much larger influence of changes in red cell mass and especially plasma volume.
Years ago (when I was a grad student at the AIS), Dave Martin and various national (women's) cycling team coaches used a simple approach to estimate "aerobic endurance".... do a 30 min TT in a fresh state one day, and then on another day go out and ride 100km at aerobic base intensity, then immediately after, ride straight to the lab and do another 30 min TT. I personally assisted on data collection on many of these tests (which were implented during dedicated training camps). If you could match your 30 min TT after 100km in the saddle, then endurance is good. If not, more base volume is required. For the majority of recreational (male) competitive cyclists, using international class female test protocols works pretty well, so I think 100km would be appropriate for most people here. For more elite men (eg: cat 1 level and above), then probably 150 km might be more suitable. I agree with this basic idea.... if you really want to know if your endurance is solid, then try doing a max effort (I don't think a 30 min TT is necessary, but definitely something in the range 10-15 min would be good) after at least 100 km at Z2 (with some Z3 also) and compare it to a recent PB over the same duration, or indeed the exact same stretch of road or hill.