Find the write that returns ECONNREFUSED.
Determine which file descriptor it is, then determine which u64 ID is used with it in epoll_ctl. This should show all relevant syscalls that relate to the file descriptor or u64 ID.
The spurious epoll_wait event fires between epoll_ctl and connect.
egrep '[(, ]215($|[), ])|139969772241984' a.* | perl -pe 's/^a.(\d+):(\S+)/$2 $1/' | sort
1406320197.172769 26587 getsockopt(439, SOL_SOCKET, SO_ERROR, [111], [4]) = 0 <0.000005>
1406320197.172794 26587 epoll_ctl(4, EPOLL_CTL_DEL, 439, {0, {u32=4213032, u64=4213032}}) = 0 <0.000006>
1406320197.172817 26587 close(439) = 0 <0.000010>
1406320197.507617 26587 socket(PF_INET, SOCK_STREAM|SOCK_CLOEXEC|SOCK_NONBLOCK, IPPROTO_IP) = 439 <0.000010>
1406320197.507645 26587 setsockopt(439, SOL_SOCKET, SO_BROADCAST, [1], 4) = 0 <0.000006>
1406320197.507672 26587 epoll_ctl(4, EPOLL_CTL_ADD, 439, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLET|0x2000, {u32=2368844064, u64=139971058053408}}) = 0 <0.000006>
1406320197.507823 26588 epoll_wait(4, {{EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368724616, u64=139971057933960}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368839488, u64=139971058048832}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368774368, u64=139971057983712}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368821712, u64=139971058031056}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368839136, u64=139971058048480}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368757648, u64=139971057966992}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368839312, u64=139971058048656}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368757296, u64=139971057966640}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368757120, u64=139971057966464}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368757472, u64=139971057966816}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368756944, u64=139971057966288}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368722504, u64=139971057931848}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368722328, u64=139971057931672}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368791088, u64=139971058000432}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368790912, u64=139971058000256}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368780528, u64=139971057989872}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368790560, u64=139971057999904}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368790384, u64=139971057999728}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368790736, u64=139971058000080}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368790032, u64=139971057999376}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368790208, u64=139971057999552}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368789680, u64=139971057999024}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368789328, u64=139971057998672}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368789856, u64=139971057999200}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368789152, u64=139971057998496}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368788976, u64=139971057998320}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368789504, u64=139971057998848}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368761696, u64=139971057971040}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368788800, u64=139971057998144}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368788624, u64=139971057997968}}, {EPOLLOUT|EPOLLHUP, {u32=2368844064, u64=139971058053408}}}, 128, 0) = 31 <0.000010>
1406320197.507942 26587 connect(439, {sa_family=AF_INET, sin_port=htons(3456), sin_addr=inet_addr("x")}, 16) = -1 EINPROGRESS (Operation now in progress) <0.000031>
1406320197.508003 26587 getsockopt(439, SOL_SOCKET, SO_ERROR, [0], [4]) = 0 <0.000005>
1406320197.508081 26587 getsockname(439, {sa_family=AF_INET, sin_port=htons(36051), sin_addr=inet_addr("x")}, [16]) = 0 <0.000005>
1406320197.508109 26587 getpeername(439, 0x7f4d8cdb4560, [112]) = -1 ENOTCONN (Transport endpoint is not connected) <0.000005>
1406320197.508141 26587 setsockopt(439, SOL_TCP, TCP_NODELAY, [1], 4) = 0 <0.000006>
1406320197.508262 26587 write(439, "hi", 2) = -1 EAGAIN (Resource temporarily unavailable) <0.000006>
1406320197.518050 26588 epoll_wait(4, {{EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368843888, u64=139971058053232}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368843712, u64=139971058053056}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368843536, u64=139971058052880}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368844768, u64=139971058054112}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368754128, u64=139971057963472}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368806224, u64=139971058015568}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368782992, u64=139971057992336}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368761168, u64=139971057970512}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368806048, u64=139971058015392}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368833504, u64=139971058042848}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368761344, u64=139971057970688}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368834208, u64=139971058043552}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368805344, u64=139971058014688}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368723736, u64=139971057933080}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368803760, u64=139971058013104}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368834032, u64=139971058043376}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368765568, u64=139971057974912}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368770848, u64=139971057980192}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368831568, u64=139971058040912}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368831392, u64=139971058040736}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368831216, u64=139971058040560}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368815904, u64=139971058025248}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368831040, u64=139971058040384}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368830864, u64=139971058040208}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368830688, u64=139971058040032}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368830512, u64=139971058039856}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368844592, u64=139971058053936}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368844416, u64=139971058053760}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368844240, u64=139971058053584}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368723384, u64=139971057932728}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368820656, u64=139971058030000}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368767856, u64=139971057977200}}, {EPOLLIN|EPOLLOUT|EPOLLERR|EPOLLHUP|0x2000, {u32=2368844064, u64=139971058053408}}, {EPOLLOUT|EPOLLHUP, {u32=2368771200, u64=139971057980544}}}, 128, 0) = 34 <0.000010>
1406320197.607291 26587 write(439, "hi", 2) = -1 ECONNREFUSED (Connection refused) <0.000006>
1406320197.607607 26587 epoll_ctl(4, EPOLL_CTL_DEL, 439, {0, {u32=4213032, u64=4213032}}) = 0 <0.000006>
1406320197.607631 26587 close(439) = 0 <0.000010>