PFA: Beta and misc values discussed yesterday

[Deepak Shivamurthy]

Hi all,

PFA the beta and other such values we discussed to fetch from Capitaline.

Market price, EPS, Book value are as per 28/3/2013(last share price reported in march)

52week low/high is current

Note: i just couldn't  figure out on how to find risk premium spread or market return value that is used to calculate cost of capital.

Please check in your notes(of corporate finance) if you have some clues. If not, lets ask MSN.

Regards,

Deepak

On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 2:50 PM, <krishnamma...@wipro.com> wrote:

All,  I have taken up TVS motor Company .

 

Regards

Krishnamma

 

From: Mishra, Padmesh K [mailto:padmesh....@intel.com]
Sent: Wednesday, November 13, 2013 9:05 AM
To: Scaria, Robin; Gurpreet Singh; Satya Peesapati
Cc: manohar rao; deepak.sh...@gmail.com; rahul.r...@gmail.com; sahu_...@yahoo.com; Krishnamma M (WT01 - GIS); am3...@gmail.com; gmite7...@googlegroups.com
Subject: RE: Valuation - Company Assignment

 

Thanks for this summary :

 

I will take Bajaj.

 

Thanks,

Padmesh

 

From: Scaria, Robin [mailto:robin....@capgemini.com]
Sent: Wednesday, November 13, 2013 8:32 AM
To: Gurpreet Singh; Satya Peesapati
Cc: manohar rao; deepak.sh...@gmail.com; rahul.r...@gmail.com; sahu_...@yahoo.com; krishnamma...@wipro.com; Mishra, Padmesh K; am3...@gmail.com; gmite7...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Valuation - Company Assignment

 

All, pls find the companies taken up by the individuals (and shared so far in our last Friday meeting)

 

Manohar – Maruti Suzuki

Satya – Tata Motors

Rahul – Sundaram Brakes /Force Motors (Rahul pls re-confirm)

Gurpreet – Mahindra

Subrat – Ashok Leyland

Deepak – Hero Motors

Robin - Eicher

 

Regards

Robin

This message contains information that may be privileged or confidential and is the property of the Capgemini Group. It is intended only for the person to whom it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are not authorized to read, print, retain, copy, disseminate, distribute, or use this message or any part thereof. If you receive this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of this message.

The information contained in this electronic message and any attachments to this message are intended for the exclusive use of the addressee(s) and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately and destroy all copies of this message and any attachments.

WARNING: Computer viruses can be transmitted via email. The recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email.

www.wipro.com

The information contained in this electronic message and any attachments to this message are intended for the exclusive use of the addressee(s) and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately and destroy all copies of this message and any attachments.

WARNING: Computer viruses can be transmitted via email. The recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email.

www.wipro.com

[Gurpreet Singh]

I'm stuck are the same point.

any now, for mahindra, i have taken 

divident payout ratio as 30%  (as last years it's nearing 27%, so I'm conservative)

cost of equity = 15% (same a birla, as I don't know to calculate, so just taken to move forward)

Total value is coming as 3656

Current market price is 879...

:)

All of u, pls buy, it's very much under valued ;)

I guess I messed up with the assumptions... not sure how to project, as different companies in auto are making totally diff growth.... sometime it's negative too....

Also, I downloaded some analyst reports, doesn't give any good direction.... attached

Br

G;p

[Gurpreet Singh]

Attaching my WIP Mahindra sheet, in case it it helps some one, or if I get some help ;)

I guess we need to reach out to MSN

[Gurpreet Singh]

Guys...

Using capitaline, I got sales values of all the auto companies, to get the sense of average growth in auto industry in last 10 yrs. The reason was that using just M&M grow rate, my valuation was coming at 4-5 times the current share price. Now with changed assumptions and real data, valuation is coming in decent shape(not still there yet).

Hope this helps you to assume future growth.

My approach is simple.

1. I have gone generic, with two and four wheelers, as I don't have data for specific segments like passenger cars/commercial vehicles, SUV vs hatchback vs sedans, tractors, three wheelers, mid segment commercial vehicles. To get this data, I would need to spend 2-3 days, and with exams on, don't have that.

2. Due to above, I will pick something near to 13.95% as starting point. This is generic auto industry average for last 10 yrs.

3. Now for M&M, I need to go a lil deep to check what is making it hit 25% in last 2-3 years. Is it SUV/Tractors/Three wheelers, etc -> This needs some study, googling around.

4. Based on my study, I'll pick up a %age, that will be lil higher than 13.95% or lower than that based on my analysis and knowledge gained. Ball park for me in M&M case would be 20% to start with, and going down with years till I reach 5%.

5. If I put these things in the template, valuation is coming around Rs 1500. Current share price is arnd Rs 900. So there must be some adjustments to be done. Looking in that.

I downloaded M&M reports to check if I'm leading to right direction, and looks like I'm. The target prices listed in reports(November reports) is arnd Rs 1200.

Pls let me know, if you have comments, or some suggestions to improve upon above approach. Hopefully, I complete it today and focus on exams.

Data that will help you guys:

	Top of Form Bottom of Form    Year	Mar 13(12)	Mar 12(12)	Mar 11(12)	Mar 10(12)	Mar 09(12)	Mar 08(12)	Mar 07(12)	Mar 06(12)	Mar 05(12)	Mar 04(12)	Average Growth
Four wheelers/Three wheelers
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (Industry :Automobiles - Tractors)	Sales Turnover	43,412.65	34,348.18	25,555.02	20,156.92	14,513.87	12,866.30	11,183.50	9,241.73	7,647.80	5,886.31
		26.39%	34.41%	26.78%	38.88%	12.81%	15.05%	21.01%	20.84%	29.93%		25.12%
Tata Motors Ltd. (Industry :Automobiles - LCVs/HCVs)	Sales Turnover	49,319.73	59,220.94	51,183.95	37,795.71	28,088.35	32,885.03	31,611.21	23,673.43	20,152.03	15,165.85
		-16.72%	15.70%	35.42%	34.56%	-14.59%	4.03%	33.53%	17.47%	32.88%		15.81%
Maruti Suzuki Ltd. (Industry :Automobiles - passenger cars)	Sales Turnover	49,090.00	39,495.30	40,871.50	31,947.70	23,180.60	21,025.20	17,205.90	14,753.10	13,335.70	11,047.40
		24.29%	-3.37%	27.93%	37.82%	10.25%	22.20%	16.63%	10.63%	20.71%		18.57%
Hyundai Motors Ltd. (Industry :Automobiles - passenger cars)	Sales Turnover	24,221.49	21,050.51	20,771.90	16,599.46	11,357.33	9,915.88	8,450.94	7,351.90	5,713.74	3,955.86
		15.06%	1.34%	25.14%	46.16%	14.54%	17.33%	14.95%	28.67%	44.44%		23.07%
Ford India Pvt. Ltd (Industry :Automobiles - passenger cars)	Sales Turnover	6,604.18	5,636.50	2,144.38	1,754.32	2,068.89	2,232.29	1,780.96	1,621.62	1,326.02	1,036.37
		17.17%	162.85%	22.23%	-15.20%	-7.32%	25.34%	9.83%	22.29%	27.95%		29.46%
Ashok Leyland (Industry :Automobiles - LCVs/HCVs)	Sales Turnover	13,947.98	14,196.41	12,392.78	8,035.12	6,783.99	9,141.78	8,475.42	6,170.41	4,886.81	3,979.57
		-1.75%	14.55%	54.23%	18.44%	-25.79%	7.86%	37.36%	26.27%	22.80%		17.11%
Force motors (Industry :Automobiles - LCVs/HCVs)	Sales Turnover	2,276.35	2,369.16	1,780.62	1,075.80	866.72	1,067.75	1,138.96	1,087.02	999.85	1,111.57
		-3.92%	33.05%	65.52%	24.12%	-18.83%	-6.25%	4.78%	8.72%	-10.05%		10.79%
Toyota Kirloskar  Motor Ltd. (Industry :Automobiles - passenger cars)	Sales Turnover	11,452.21	7,724.13	5,603.70	3,760.31	4,906.24	4,454.28	3,335.24
		48.27%	37.84%	49.02%	-23.36%	10.15%	33.55%					25.91%
Honda Cars India Ltd (Industry :Automobiles - passenger cars)	Sales Turnover	3,895.69	4,888.81
		-20.31%										-20.31%
Hindustan Motors Ltd (Industry :Automobiles - passenger cars)	Sales Turnover	591.93	802.71	736.88	770.7	853.01	806.37	553.05	1,352.13	858.88	1,074.73
		-26.26%	8.93%	-4.39%	-9.65%	5.78%	45.80%	-59.10%	57.43%	-20.08%		-0.17%
Eicher Motors Ltd(Industry :Automobiles - LCVs/HCVs)	Sales Turnover	1,179.30	742.83	484.38	407.99	771.78	2,512.41	2,223.26	1,858.45	2,211.58	1,564.75
		58.76%	53.36%	18.72%	-47.14%	-69.28%	13.01%	19.63%	-15.97%	41.34%		8.05%
Two Wheelers
Bajaj Auto Ltd. (Industry :Automobiles - Scooters and 3-Wheelers)	Sales Turnover	21,126.16	20,475.74	17,331.64	12,118.08	9,049.66	9,689.95
		3.18%	18.14%	43.02%	33.91%	-6.61%						18.33%
Hero MotoCorp Ltd (Industry :Automobiles - Motorcycles / Mopeds)	Sales Turnover	25,659.91	25,235.02	20,815.29	16,780.62	13,543.09	12,038.53	11,542.04	10,086.16	8,596.81	6,747.35
		1.68%	21.23%	24.04%	23.91%	12.50%	4.30%	14.43%	17.32%	27.41%		16.31%
TVS Motor Company Ltd (Industry :Automobiles - Motorcycles / Mopeds)	Sales Turnover	7,732.88	7,727.65	6,821.07	4,679.59	4,008.91	3,683.53	4,473.44	3,731.75	3,321.25	3,260.01
		0.07%	13.29%	45.76%	16.73%	8.83%	-17.66%	19.88%	12.36%	1.88%		11.24%
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Pvt Ltd (Industry :Automobiles - Motorcycles / Mopeds)	Sales Turnover	7,817.71	5,867.33	4,299.35	3,553.10	2,739.80	2,076.77
		33.24%	36.47%	21.00%	29.68%	31.93%						30.46%
TAFE Motors & Tractors Ltd (Industry :Automobiles - Tractors)	Sales Turnover	2,339.70	1,989.37	1,533.09	1,317.57
		17.61%	29.76%	16.36%								21.24%
Ovarall Average growth in Auto Industry	15.69%
Overall Average growth in Four Wheeler Segment	13.95%
Overall Average growth in Two Wheeler Segment	19.09%

 

Regards

Gurpreet

[Gurpreet Singh]

Didn't receive a reply, so assumed I'm on right track..

Attached the final xls. Important think I missed was the face value of M&M share. It was 5, and as I copied pasted from Asian paints sheet, it was taking it as 10, so everything was doubled by 100%.

Now things look good and inline with the professional reports.

It's a BUY for M&M from my side too..... 

HTH....

Br

G;p

[Gurpreet Singh]

My suggestion is to keep report crisp..... specially recommendation should be on TOP.

2-3 pages what ppl read, and then 2-3 pages of financial data, that ppl don't read much..

This is what I'm following from the Tata Motor reports sent by MSN...

1. Page 1: Main page, what report, who submitted, etc.

2. Page 2:Recommendation (BUY, Sell, HOLD, DUMP)

3. Page 2: Highlights: Recent updates of company and sector. We can find this by googling, or many reports in ETIntelligence.

4. Page 3: Outlook and Valuation: One para on your outlook for the company, and then how you valued, assumptions, etc. (I'm not putting any of the tables from xls. Just data, that's easy to read.)

5. Page 4-6: Key Financial Data (Here I'm putting data of FY12 and FY13, and projected data for FY14 and FY15)

6. Page 6: References (if any)

The xls sheet, as MSN told, should be mailed to him, and should not be part of the valuation sheet.

Let me know, if above doesn't make sense, as I plat to complete and take prints today :)

Regards

Gurpreet

On Fri, Nov 22, 2013 at 5:29 PM, Rahul Ravikanth <rahul.r...@gmail.com> wrote:

Valuation template .....

[Archana Mohan]

Hi Folks,

I seem to have left my black note book back in the MDC conference room. Can anyone confirm they have seen it or have it with them.

There were these people when I left the classroom- Rahul, Deepak, Subrat, Manohar.

Thanks in advance.

Archana

--

 

 

 

Regards,

Archana

+919663405836