Another CR

[Kripa Tewari]

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.

(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.

(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.

(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.

(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

 

Thanks and Regards

Kripa

 

[Kevin Mascarenhas]

M-Meteorologist's conclusion, A-author's conclusion

 

M:Forecast weather with real precision --> accurate mathematical model

A: M's conclusion cannot be evaluated

    Because: Inadequate forecast - > imperfect model

 

We need to weaken A

 

Options:

A- unusual data ->accurate forecast. (No effect in conclusion)

B-      Gain in accuracy of model -> gain in better forecast.  (This seems to weaken as it means it can be evaluated. Holding it..)

C- why talk on volcanic eruptions

D - forecast is accurate upto 80% (I feel it hits the conclusion as it shows some evaluation bt not as strong as B since D says nothing abt mathematical model)

E - Accurate model cannot be created. (I feel it is supporting the conclusion since if it cannot be created at all then why evaluate)

 

So seems like B is the correct answer.

 

Hope this is right explanation. Please correct if wrong.

 

Thanks,

Kevin

 

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Cheers!

 

Kevin..

SkypeID: KevinMasci

FB: kevin...@gmail.com

LinkedIn: http://in.linkedin.com/in/kevinmascarenhas

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[Kripa Tewari]

your pick is right kevin and it is well disected :). thank you.

regards

Kripa