Fwd: Nava Bharat Ventures Q2FY12 Result Update; Lower tariffs, PLFs and MAT credit- the culprits; Accumulate; Target: Rs210

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Deepak Vaishnav

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Nov 24, 2011, 6:44:50 AM11/24/11
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Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd.

Lower tariffs, PLFs and MAT credit- the culprits  

 

ACCUMULATE

 

CMP: Rs180                                        Target Price: Rs210

n     2Q12 APAT of Rs362mn (down 59% yoy) is below est. on low merchant realizations (Rs3.3/unit vs. Rs3.7/unit expected), lower PLF (82% vs. 87% expected) and lower MAT credit (Rs15mn vs. Rs150mn expected)

n     Contract with TISCO to start from mid 3Q - to provide some hedge for falling power profitability but insufficient. We increase our fuel cost & reduce tariff assumptions – earnings cut of 49%/32% in FY12E/FY13E

n     Zambia coal trading to start from 4Q12 and to reach 1mnMT in FY14E. 64MW COD still pending - expected in 4Q. Indonesian investment safe, NBVL to get 20% offtake also

n     Though NBVL is affected by all power sector concerns but is better placed in terms of fuel security (washery rejects and Zambia hedge) and offtake (natural hedge - ferro alloys). Maintain Accumulate

 

Regards,

Amit Golchha

Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : amit.g...@emkayglobal.com 

Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 408 | DID : 66242408 | Mob : +919833357365 |

 

 


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Nava Bharat Ventures Q2FY12 Result Update.pdf
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