Alarmism ad absurdum

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Zeke Hausfather

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Jul 18, 2007, 2:29:19 AM7/18/07
to globalchange
I recently stumbled upon an ABC 20/20 segment titled "Last Days on
Earth" including interviews with Hansen, Oppenheimer, and others and
warning of "billions of casualties" and implying the possibility of 40
feet of sea level rise within a century.

You can find it here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60Zk4-JPCdg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XClNHfmFDog

They include a segment with Hansen where, the way the quote is cut, he
seems to be implying that a complete melting of the Greenland ice
sheet prior to 2050 is possible.

Now, the question is, how is something like this any better than TGGWS
or its brethren, and should the scientists interviewed in this film
have objected when their words were used out of context or to imply
impacts more severe than those supported by the science?

James Annan

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Jul 22, 2007, 5:29:57 AM7/22/07
to global...@googlegroups.com

...tumbleweed...

it's even better than you said, because the graphics right at the end of
the first section show large parts of most land masses being submerged
(and by large part, I don't mean a significant coastal strip, but eg the
whole SE of the UK).

...tumbleweed...

James

Raymond Arritt

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Jul 22, 2007, 10:30:37 AM7/22/07
to global...@googlegroups.com
James Annan wrote:
> Zeke Hausfather wrote:
>> I recently stumbled upon an ABC 20/20 segment titled "Last Days on
>> Earth" including interviews with Hansen, Oppenheimer, and others and
>> warning of "billions of casualties" and implying the possibility of 40
>> feet of sea level rise within a century.
>>
>> You can find it here:
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60Zk4-JPCdg
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XClNHfmFDog
>>
>> They include a segment with Hansen where, the way the quote is cut, he
>> seems to be implying that a complete melting of the Greenland ice
>> sheet prior to 2050 is possible.
>>
> ...tumbleweed...
>
> it's even better than you said, because the graphics right at the end of
> the first section show large parts of most land masses being submerged
> (and by large part, I don't mean a significant coastal strip, but eg the
> whole SE of the UK).
>
> ...tumbleweed...
>
> James

Just as an aside, if you want to visualize the effect of any value of
hypothetical sea level rise or fall there's a nice little applet here:
http://merkel.zoneo.net/Topo/Applet/

Ray

CobblyWorlds

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Jul 22, 2007, 10:56:14 AM7/22/07
to globalchange
On Jul 18, 7:29 am, Zeke Hausfather <hausf...@gmail.com> wrote:
> They include a segment with Hansen where, the way the quote is cut, he
> seems to be implying that a complete melting of the Greenland ice
> sheet prior to 2050 is possible.
>
> Now, the question is, how is something like this any better than TGGWS
> or its brethren, and should the scientists interviewed in this film
> have objected when their words were used out of context or to imply
> impacts more severe than those supported by the science?

I can't get any sound out of that on my ageing PC! But taking what you
say at face value: Yes it sounds just as bad as TGGWS. There's no
trace on Google of any complaint from Hansen though.

Here in the UK we've got the latest of what seems to be a global
pattern of extreme weather (not just the ENSO effect on low pressure
tracks that's given us a poor Summer - it's the intensity of the
ensuing rainfall events). A pattern that seems to me to be developing
ahead of time - although I'm not a professional, just a reader of the
science. The "observational bias" argument against this apparent trend
is wearing thin with me.

Having been feeling quite sanguine about GW for some time, I'm
thinking once more that we're in for a mauling from Broecker's waking
dragon.

I just don't see any reason to overstate the dangers of what we're
blundering into. The unfolding reality looks bad enough from my
reading.

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