Re stable climate: I think we are talking about a relatively stable climate
over the last 10,000 years. I think the point here is not how stable
particular era are but that we may be destabilising our particular era and
pushing the planet into a less predictable climate state that as you say,
may eventually stabilise.
We are planning to put out an updated index soon - as soon as we have the
sea level data in a format we can use. We will work on the wording and
descriptions to improve clarity, so thanks for your thoughts, it is really
Steve, a rising index means it's moving further away from the
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The index components seem to be calibrated based on 100 = maximum
change since 1980. Does that mean all the past index values are
changed when we get a new yearly maximum?
If I understand correctly, that means that the relative contribution
of each component is based on the year of maximum change. But maximum
change is kind of a amplifier of noise or isolated events. A big
volcano that caused a .4 change in temperature would reduce the
contribution (in all years) of the temperature component relative to
components that responded less (or not at all) to volcanoes.
Seems like it might be better to normalize in some other way.