FW: New publication 'Global energy scenarios: a geopolitical reality check' (in: Global Environmental Change)

[Blondeel, M.C. (Mathieu)]

******Apologies for cross-posting******

 

 

Dear colleagues,

 

I’m very pleased to inform you about a new paper in Global Environmental Change, “Global energy scenarios: A geopolitical reality check”, written by an interdisciplinary team of researchers in energy modelling, geography, IR and political economy.  

 

Authors: Mathieu Blondeel, James Price, Michael Bradshaw, Steve Pye, Paul Dodds, Caroline Kuzemko & Gavin Bridge

 

Abstract: The ongoing Global Energy System Transformation (GEST) has attracted the attention of multiple academic disciplines and practitioners, approaching the process with different analytical and conceptual tools. We explore the ‘integration gap’ that exists between, on the one hand, Energy System Modelling and the stylised scenarios they use, and on the other, energy geopolitics. We consider how these approaches can complement each other to further our understanding of the global energy system’s future. Using a novel qualitative analytical framework, we review the extent to which a range of state-of-the-art global energy scenarios capture and reflect key issues in energy geopolitics in their narratives and model implementation. We find that few scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. Those that do often treat it as a barrier to decarbonisation efforts that are aligned with the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. Normative, Paris-aligned scenarios describe smooth processes of change where cooperation and coordination between countries are assumed and where geopolitics is often completely absent. Our findings emphasise the need for a more intricate understanding of the difference between ‘paper transitions’ and the real-world messiness and complexities of GEST, where geopolitics has a dual quality of simultaneously accelerating and hindering the transformation process.

 

This paper is part of the UKERC project.

 

Enjoy the read!

 

All the best,

Mathieu

 

 

Dr Mathieu Blondeel
Assistant Professor/Universitair docent

Environmental Policy Analysis – Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)

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