2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (NOAA Press Release)

[Joel Paz]

You can read the entire article at:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html

-Joel

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NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness

NOAA forecasters say a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most
likely this year. However, as with any season, the need to prepare for
the possibility of a storm striking near you is essential.

“Today, more than 35 million Americans live in regions most threatened
by Atlantic hurricanes,” Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said. “Timely
and accurate warnings of severe weather help save lives and property.
Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against
a hurricane.”

In its initial outlook for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which
runs from June through November, NOAA’s National Weather Service
Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-
normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and
a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. Global weather
patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane
season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70
percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to
seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5).

“This outlook is a guide to the overall expected seasonal activity.
However, the outlook is not just about the numbers, it’s also about
taking action,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane
forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Prepare for each and
every season regardless of the seasonal outlook. Even a near- or below-
normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes
one landfalling storm to make it a bad season.”

Shaping this seasonal outlook is the possibility of competing climate
factors. Supporting more activity this season are conditions
associated with the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995,
which include enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic
waters and reduced wind shear. But activity could be reduced if El
Nino develops in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer or if
ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic remain cooler than
normal.