UGA CAES article: Georgia’s winter weather will be extreme

[Joel Paz]

You can read the full article by Dr. David Stooksbury (State
Climatologist of Georgia) at:
http://georgiafaces.caes.uga.edu/storypage.cfm?storyid=3599

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December 22, 2008
Georgia’s winter weather will be extreme

Georgians can expect a roller coaster winter with temperatures jumping
between warm and extremely cold.

The southeastern United States is currently in what is called a
neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation. The ENSO refers
to the surface temperatures around the equator in the Pacific Ocean.
The ENSO’s other two phases are El Niño and La Niña.

Last winter, a La Niña ENSO phase influenced Georgia’s weather.

The neutral phase normally brings a winter with wide swings in
temperatures. This means that Georgia can expect extremely cold
periods with single digits in the mountains and the lower 20s in south
and coastal Georgia. Between the extremely cold periods, warm
temperatures in the 70s can be expected.

All devastating freezes that have affected the Southeast have occurred
during neutral winters. Devastating freezes for Georgia have been ones
with temperatures below zero in the mountains, around 10 degrees along
the coast and single digits in south Georgia.

This does not mean that every neutral winter will have a devastating
freeze, but the odds are greatly increased. Because of the greater
likelihood of a devastating freeze this winter, all Georgians are
urged to take necessary precautions to protect life and property.

The rainfall outlook is less certain. Rainfall during neutral winters
is very variable. Some neutral winters are very wet while other are
very dry. At this time, we don’t know what we’ll get. Whether Georgia
experiences a wet or dry winter will depend on the number of low-
pressure systems that develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and move
across the state.