Update: NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

[Joel Paz]

Source: NOAA

Strong Start Increases NOAA’s Confidence for Above-Normal Atlantic
Hurricane Season

In the August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA’s
Climate Prediction Center has increased the likelihood of an above-
normal hurricane season and has raised the total number of named
storms and hurricanes that may form. Forecasters attribute this
adjustment to atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic
Basin that favor storm development - combined with the strong early
season activity.

NOAA now projects an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season
– up from 65 percent in May. The updated outlook includes a 67 percent
chance of 14 to 18 named storms, of which seven to 10 are expected to
become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes of Category
3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These ranges
encompass the entire season, which ends November 30, and include the
five storms that have formed thus far.

In May, the outlook called for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to
nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. An average Atlantic
hurricane season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two
major hurricanes.

“Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the
continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions
that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the
lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal
hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Some of
these conditions include reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an
active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and
warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean.”

You can read the entire article at:
<http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/
stories2008/20080807_hurricaneoutlook.html>