Uncertain Remedies to Fight Uncertain Consequences: The Case of Solar Geoengineering

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Sep 22, 2023, 7:51:00 AMSep 22
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This working paper examines how uncertainty and anticipated learning may affect decisions around the deployment of solar geoengineering.


Felix D. Meier and Christian P. Traeger

05 September 2023

Working Paper

Solar geoengineering can cool our planet and counteract the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Given current emission trajectories, solar geoengineering has the potential to save lives, reduce severe impacts on economic production, and save ecosystems and island states. Deterministic integrated assessment models tend to show major benefits from solar geoengineering, but are highly sensitive to the assumed and highly uncertain damages from solar geoengineering as well as the effectiveness of cooling the planet. We analyze how uncertainties and the anticipation of learning change the case for solar geoengineering in a world with an uncertain temperature response to carbon dioxide emissions.

Source: Resources for the Future 
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