Declining Geoengineering Efficacy Caused by Cloud Feedbacks in Transient Solar Dimming Experiments

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https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-23-0333.1/JCLI-D-23-0333.1.xml

Authors

John G. Virgin and Christopher G. Fletcher

Online Publication: 19 Oct 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0333.1

Abstract

Solar radiation modification (SRM) with injections of aerosols into the stratosphere has emerged as a research area of focus with the potential to cool the planet. However, the amount of SRM required to achieve a given level of cooling, and how this relationship evolves in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, remains uncertain. Here, we explore the evolution of solar dimming efficacy over time by defining and quantifying a new SRM feedback term, which is analogous to conventional radiative feedbacks. Using Earth System Model simulations that dynamically adjust the amount of insolation to offset global mean warming from increasing CO2, we find that positive SRM feedbacks decrease global planetary albedo and diminish the efficacy of solar dimming. Physically, the decrease in albedo is primarily due to reductions in optically thick tropical cloud fraction in the boundary layer and mid troposphere, which is driven by a drying and destabilization of the tropical mid to lower troposphere. These results offer an energetic explanation for reduced cloud fraction commonly observed in idealized SRM experiments, as well as reaffirm the need to understand the troposphere response, particularly from clouds, in realizable geoengineering experiments and their potential to feed back onto SRM efficacy.

Source: AMS JOURNAL