Global and regional impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

[ayesha iqbal]

https://media.rff.org/documents/Harding__Keith_draft_Global__regional_impact_of_SG_on_temp-mortality.pdf 

Authors

Anthony Harding, David Keith 

Abstract

Temperature-attributable mortality is a major risk of climate change. Here we quantitatively analyze the 

capacity of solar geoengineering to reduce this risk applying an empirical methodology. Using the GFDL/FLOR model – modeling solar geoengineering as a uniform solar constant reduction – we find that solar geoengineering reduces temperature-attributable mortality by around 13% more than the 

reduction for equivalent global cooling through emissions reductions. This is likely due to the dampening of the equator-to-pole gradient and the reduction in intra-annual temperature variability with uniform solar geoengineering. Using the GLENS simulations – modeling stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols to manage multiple temperature targets – we find that solar geoengineering reduces 

temperature-attributable mortality by around 157 deaths/100,000 by the end of the century relative to a high emissions scenario. This is about two orders of magnitude larger than estimates of the novel mortality risks introduced by solar geoengineering.

Source: media.rff.org

[Tony Harding]

Hi All,

Just a note on this. This was a preliminary draft circulated internally as part of a workshop series. It was not meant for wide distribution. There should be an updated and more complete working paper version coming soon. I will pass that along to the group when it is released. Happy to answer any questions about the research in the meantime though.

Best,

Tony