Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics
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Alan Robock ☮
May 10, 2021, 8:35:59 AM5/10/21
to Geoengineering
Here's a new paper of ours. Keep in mind that it analyses an
extreme scenario, from GLENS at the end of the century.
Banerjee, Antara, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun, 2021: Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics. Atm. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985-6997, doi:10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/6985/2021/
Abstract
It has been suggested that increased stratospheric sulfate aerosol loadings following large, low latitude volcanic eruptions can lead to wintertime warming over Eurasia through dynamical stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We here investigate the proposed connection in the context of hypothetical future stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in the Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations. In those geoengineering simulations, we find that stratospheric circulation anomalies that resemble the positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode in winter are a distinguishing climate response which is absent when increasing greenhouse gases alone are prescribed. This stratospheric dynamical response projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, leading to associated side effects of this climate intervention strategy, such as continental Eurasian warming and precipitation changes. Seasonality is a key signature of the dynamically driven surface response. We find an opposite response of the North Atlantic Oscillation in summer, when no dynamical role of the stratosphere is expected. The robustness of the wintertime forced response stands in contrast to previously proposed volcanic responses.
Banerjee, Antara, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun, 2021: Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics. Atm. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985-6997, doi:10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/6985/2021/
Abstract
It has been suggested that increased stratospheric sulfate aerosol loadings following large, low latitude volcanic eruptions can lead to wintertime warming over Eurasia through dynamical stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We here investigate the proposed connection in the context of hypothetical future stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in the Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations. In those geoengineering simulations, we find that stratospheric circulation anomalies that resemble the positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode in winter are a distinguishing climate response which is absent when increasing greenhouse gases alone are prescribed. This stratospheric dynamical response projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, leading to associated side effects of this climate intervention strategy, such as continental Eurasian warming and precipitation changes. Seasonality is a key signature of the dynamically driven surface response. We find an opposite response of the North Atlantic Oscillation in summer, when no dynamical role of the stratosphere is expected. The robustness of the wintertime forced response stands in contrast to previously proposed volcanic responses.
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Alan
Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor
Chair-Elect, AGU College of Fellows
Associate Editor, Reviews of Geophysics
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-848-932-5751
Rutgers University E-mail: rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu
14 College Farm Road http://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 ☮ https://twitter.com/AlanRobock
"I've got a feeling 21 is going to be a good year" - The Who from the album Tommy
Alan
Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor
Chair-Elect, AGU College of Fellows
Associate Editor, Reviews of Geophysics
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-848-932-5751
Rutgers University E-mail: rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu
14 College Farm Road http://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 ☮ https://twitter.com/AlanRobock
"I've got a feeling 21 is going to be a good year" - The Who from the album Tommy
Alan Robock
May 10, 2021, 8:38:05 AM5/10/21
to Geoengineering
Oops: analyzes, not analyses.
Alan
Alan
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