Solar Geoengineering: Protecting Democratic Deliberations in a Contested Information Environment

[Geoengineering News]

https://stratcomcoe.org/pdfjs/?file=/publications/download/DSC_NATO_journal_Vol16_Trish-Lavery.pdf?zoom=page-fit

Authors: Trish Lavery

Abstract

Solar Geoengineering interventions are designed to reflect sunlight and reduce the impacts of climate change. These are attracting increased research and policy attention while simultaneously being targets for disinformation campaigns and conspiracy theories. The technical complexity, scientific uncertainties, and governance controversies of climate cooling technologies create ideal conditions for information manipulation, making them vulnerable to exploitation by malign actors. Influence operators have already demonstrated sophisticated capabilities in exploiting weather modification and climate change narratives for strategic advantage. This establishes a precedent that could see solar geoengineering disinformation used as a hybrid threat and an inevitable focus of future influence campaigns. This article analyses the implications of solar geoengineering disinformation, demonstrates how malign actors could exploit scientific and governance uncertainty for geopolitical advantage, and introduces a strategic communications framework to guide policymakers, researchers, and communications professionals on mechanisms to preserve space for rational deliberation on these technologies. The goal of the framework is not to promote or discourage solar geoengineering research or deployment but to protect the conditions necessary for informed democratic debate. The disinformation threat considered here does not arise from adversary opposition to (or support for) solar radiation modification per se, but rather from campaigns designed to prevent conditions necessary for evidence-informed debate and democratic choice. The capacity for evidence-based deliberation about climate cooling represents a crucial test of democratic resilience in contested information environments.