Starvation - the great leveller

[John Nissen]

When it comes to the prospect of starvation, all other issues will
become secondary. Widespread crop failure may be the first major impact
of global warming to affect developed countries as well as poorer
countries; but by that stage it will be too late for any kind of
geoengineering, and our minds will be on our stomachs!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/23/china-food-shortage

In his book, "Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed", Jared
Diamond remarks that, when a society collapses, all will starve - the
rich will just take longer!

I fear that, while rich countries only see poor countries suffering from
global warming, they are not going to take it seriously. So we can
expect no effective action from Copenhagen, unless people face up to the
real issue of how to avoid catastrophic tipping points in the Earth
system. Any hope?

Cheers,

John

P.S. I've just heard that the forecast of 1.5-2 degrees warming in the
UK this century is based on an assumption of a weakening thermohaline
circulation. The interior of Europe will get 3-4 degrees! So in the UK
"we're all right jack". But we ignore that we rely on getting much of
our food from other parts of the world! And the modelling ignores the
looming tipping points (esp. in Arctic and Amazon) to boot.

[Ray Taylor]

I think you're right on the button with this John. Global famine
is going to be the ultimate wake up call. Unfortunately FAO
and others predict european and north american harvests
to increase for at least 10 years, which will mask what's
happening to yields in southern africa etc. as far as global
wheat price is concerned.

This is why I think for now the messages have to be positive
and obviously doable:

(As per the book "The Tipping Point", the psychological
environment doesn't help doom messages to be "sticky".)

- early emissions reductions of HFC23 and other short-lived forcings

- priority to energy efficiency, cement sector, aluminium recycling
etc

- opportunties in localisation

- lots of research/pilots on CCS, geoengineering, land-atmosphere etc

- focus on green growth and technology transfer

- attention to land-atmosphere interactions and flood prevention

Hopefully there will be no deal in Copenhagen except on short-lived
forcings, which will ramp up the pressure for a good deal in Mexico
2010.

Ray

[Eugene I. Gordon]

It is too bad that humans cannot overcome their basic selfishness and greed
and deal with such issues. Burying children that have starved to death is
the ultimate monument to man's stupidity and inherent flaws.

[John Nissen]

Hi Ray and Gene,

I think there is still hope, if we can change the way people look at the situation.  This is where security of food supplies comes in...

If we can get the politicians to realise that global warming is a SECURITY issue, then they may also be able to think of global warming as an enemy - a common enemy for all mankind.  This is the big "mind set" change which is needed.

Only when everybody sees a common enemy will they unite - to attack the enemy.  This is part of the human psyche.  But while global warming is seen as a consequence of lavish, resource-hungry life-styles, the battle will be between those who want to defend those life-styles, and the rest of humanity.

Only when global warming is seen as an enemy can people face the consequences of defeat.  Before that time, talk of the consequences is branded as "doom-mongering" and therefore necessarily unscientific.   Thus the collapse of our own civilisation has been a taboo subject.

Only when global warming is seen as an enemy, will a proper strategy for attack be developed - with due attention to the most critical aspects, establishing the time-scale for action, assessing weapons capabilities, plugging gaps, establishing resource requirements, budgeting, cementing strategic alliances between nations, and sorting out a plan of campaign.

Then people will realise that geoengineering techniques, such as solar radiation management and carbon air capture, are essential weapons to attack the enemy, particularly on the fronts where the enemy is most advanced.

And people will realise that the side-effects from particular geoengineering techniques have to be seen in the light of what the techniques can do to win the war.

And people will realise that the sooner one can deploy these techniques the better, where the enemy is building up strength, has an arsenal at the ready, and/or is most unpredictable (as in the Arctic).

Cheers,

John

---

[Ray Taylor]

Sometimes they do ....

ref:

* M K Gandhi


Sometimes they discover that the most deeply satisfying thing is
contributing to meeting others needs (still selfish, but helpfully so):

ref

* www.nonviolentcommunication.com

2009/7/9 Eugene I. Gordon <eugg...@comcast.net>