[geo] Testing the hypothesis that Erebus volcano gas emissions partially influence ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere
Vladislav V Gerasimov
Dear colleagues,
Since our 2015 article (despite its possible off-topic) was recommended by Andrew Lockley to the Geoengineering community, I thought that our 2026 article would also be of interest to the community.
Previous article 2015
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231015304246
Zuev, V.V., Zueva, N.E., Savelieva, E.S., Gerasimov, V.V., 2015. The Antarctic ozone depletion caused by Erebus volcano gas emissions. Atmospheric Environment. 122, 393–399.
New article 2026
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S135223102600275X
Gerasimov, V. V., Maslennikova, E. A., & Pavlinsky, A. V. 2026. Testing the hypothesis that Erebus volcano gas emissions partially influence ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere. Atmospheric Environment. 377, 122045.
Share Link: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1n1dU_UlmK-lHJ
Anyone clicking on the Share Link (provided by Elsevier) before 21 June 2026 will be taken directly to the final version of the article on ScienceDirect, which they are welcome to read or download. No sign up, registration or fees are required.
Among the many causes and sources of ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere, Erebus volcano is the most underestimated. For example, the World Meteorological Organization and other well-known scientific organizations such as NASA, NOAA, and UNEP do not consider Erebus volcano as a potential cause of ozone depletion.
Highlights:
•High-latitude cyclones account for 30% of the September ozone hole area variability.
•Additional HCl from Erebus accumulates in the Antarctic stratosphere due to cyclones.
•Erebus provides 21% of HCl vertical column density in the Antarctic stratosphere.
•Even in the lack of CFCs, ozone depletion will not stop as long as Erebus is active.
Abstract:
Artificially produced chlorofluorocarbons are generally accepted to be primarily responsible for ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere. However, there is a hypothesis suggesting that the eruptive activity of Erebus volcano partially causes the Antarctic ozone depletion. According to the hypothesis, the source of additional ozone-depleting HCl in the Antarctic stratosphere is permanent gas emissions from Erebus, and the delivery mechanism of HCl into the stratosphere is ascending air flows inside high-latitude cyclones when the cyclones are over the volcano. In this study, we identify the relationship between ozone depletion and the delivery mechanism of HCl for the period from 1981 to 2022. We also analyze and compare HCl vertical column density (1995 to 2022) and HCl mixing ratio (1997 to 2022) in both hemispheres using available data from two middle-latitude (Jungfraujoch and Lauder) and two high-latitude (Ny-Alesund and Arrival Heights) stations. In particular, we found that the inter-annual variability of the monthly average ozone hole area in September, October, and November is due to the number of days per year on which high-latitude cyclones are over Erebus by 29.9%, 23.8%, and 11.0%, respectively, on average for the period 1981–2022. The additional amount of HCl in the Antarctic stratosphere provided by Erebus varies from 12.3 ± 7.2% in 2020 to 31.4 ± 11.4% in 1995, and is 21.0 ± 1.2% on average for the period 1995–2022. Thus, the influence of Erebus gas emissions on the Antarctic ozone depletion can no longer be ignored.
Dr. Vladislav V. Gerasimov
V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS
1, Academician Zuev square, Tomsk,
634055, Russia
gvvs...@mail.ru
