Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/6/646/xml

Authors

by Alex Nimusiima, Godwin Ayesiga, Ronald Ingula Odongo, Catherine Mulinde, Lawrence Aribo, Moses Ojara, and Bob Alex Ogwang

27 May 2025

Abstract

This study explores the implications of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) on the rainfall and temperature spatial patterns over the Eastern Africa region. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) models under the SRM scenarios of G6solar and G6sulfur are evaluated against the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). First, six GeoMIP models are evaluated against historical data and are found to capture the climate spatial patterns in the region fairly well but with a dry bias for all the models. Secondly, the models are run under both the SRM scenarios and the SSP scenarios for 2051–2080. Results show that G6solar SRM scenario predicts increased annual precipitation in the region compared to SSP245 but predicts reduced annual precipitation compared to SSP585 in the same period. The G6sulfur scenario predicts reduced annual precipitation compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region with more reductions expected over SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. For temperature, the G6solar scenario predicts a reduced annual mean temperature compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region, with more reductions in temperature against SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. However, G6sulfur shows some inconsistent results, with some models predicting increased temperatures under SRM compared to SSPs, especially for SSP245, while other models predict reduced temperatures in the same period.

Source: MDPI