A Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait can Prevent an AMOC Tipping

[Renaud de RICHTER]

The Effects of a Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC Tipping Behavior
arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.19826 (2025).

Jelle Soons, Henk A. Dijkstra

https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19826

PDF https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.19826 

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability has been well studied, it is unknown whether a constructed closure of this Strait can prevent an AMOC collapse under climate change. Here, we show in an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity that an artificial closure of the Strait can extend the safe carbon budget of the AMOC, provided that the AMOC is strong enough at the closure time. Specifically, for this model, an equilibrium AMOC with a reduction below (6.1 +/- 0.5)% from pre-industrial has an additional budget up to 500PgC given a sufficiently early closure, while for a weaker AMOC a closure reduces this budget. This indicates that constructing this closure could be a feasible climate intervention strategy to prevent an AMOC collapse.