Climate Overshoot Commission
Renaud de RICHTER
Climate Overshoot Commission
The challenge
In 2015 in Paris, the countries of the world agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. But temperatures are approaching the lower end of these. Even optimistic emissions scenarios indicate a significant chance of overshooting the goals, even if temporarily.
Every extra tenth of a degree and every extra decade of overshoot matter. Greater warming adds to the serious negative impacts on ecosystems and people, especially the most vulnerable, and increases the likelihood of crossing critical planetary boundaries.
The world needs to understand all the options available to limit climate risk.
Additional Approaches
The primary means to combat climate change should remain the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. But it has become necessary to explore additional approaches to reduce risks beyond what emissions cuts alone can achieve.
Additional approaches include
//greatly expanded and accelerated adaptation measures to reduce climate vulnerability
//removing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
//possibly cooling the planet by reflecting incoming sunlight.
These additional approaches should be researched and evaluated so that well-informed decisions can be made about their potential use. Governance is crucial, and should be effective, just, and equitable. But current arrangements are inadequate.
The Commission
The Climate Overshoot Commission is holding the necessary conversations about whether and how these additional approaches could reduce the risks of a warming climate, and will recommend an integrated governance strategy.
The Commission is the first high-level group to address all these options in a holistic, integrated manner, free from conventional political constraints. Members include former heads of government, national ministers, directors of intergovernmental organizations, leaders of environmental groups, and academic experts.
MISSION
The Global Commission on Governing Risks from Climate Overshoot (the ‘Climate Overshoot Commission’) is an independent group of eminent global leaders, who will recommend a strategy to reduce risks should global warming goals be exceeded.
The Climate Overshoot Commission will:
// Consider the risks entailed in overshooting 1.5 °C, and the range of response options for addressing such risks.
// Identify possible benefits, likely costs, potential risks, key governance challenges, and current governance gaps for each policy option supplementing the critical focus on accelerating emissions cuts. This includes enhanced adaptation, carbon dioxide removal, and sunlight reflection methods.
// Identify those combinations of global governance policy options with the most significant potential to reduce risks from climate overshoot.
// Review the potential of existing multilateral legal frameworks to facilitate an integrated policy response to reduce overshoot risks, with particular focus on the most acute governance gaps.
// Engage in transparent consultations, including relevant stakeholder consultations on climate risks, policy options, and policy integration.
// Develop a set of recommendations for an integrated strategy to reduce risks from climate change induced by temperature overshoot.
The Climate Overshoot Commission operates in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals and other relevant governance frameworks.
Principles
In its deliberations, the Commission requires that any potential strategy be:
1 / Effective
A proposed strategy must have a positive impact for people and natural systems, and promote progress across the Sustainable Development Goals.
2 / Ethical
A proposed strategy must be consistent with international norms such as justice, equity, and respect for international law.
3 / Integrated
A proposed strategy must combine different approaches to reduce climate change risks to enhance synergies and reduce trade-offs.
4 / Evidence-based
A proposed strategy must be grounded in the best available scientific knowledge. This includes assessing the risks of both action and inaction in a warming world.
5 / Resilient
A proposed strategy must anticipate unexpected changes and new information. This requires an adaptive and flexible approach.
Timeline
Building upon the authoritative assessments of scientific knowledge provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others, the Climate Overshoot Commission will recommend a comprehensive strategy to reduce risks. It will issue its final report prior to the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference. The Commission’s recommendations will serve as a reference point to guide future global discussions on comprehensive action to reduce climate risks.
May 2022
public launch
June 2022
first meeting, Lake Como, Italy
September 2022
second meeting, New York, USA
November 2022
third meeting, Egypt;
UN Climate Change Conference,
and potential interim output
February 2023
fourth meeting
May 2023
fifth meeting
July 2023
sixth meeting
August 2023
report release
November 2023
UN Climate Change Conference
Beyond
Dissemination and outreach
The Climate Overshoot Commission strives for openness and for its outputs to reflect diverse perspectives. It will organize meetings and hearings with civil society actors involved in climate and related issues, including youth movements and marginalized communities. This will ensure that crucial voices are fully heard and will inform the Commission's deliberations.
The Climate Overshoot Commission will share and disseminate its report, and encourage wide debate and discussions about its findings and recommendations.