Introducing LOF: Localized ocean fertilization is not OIF....It’s vastly better
Peter Fiekowsky
I apologize to those who have seen the graph recently. This is a more complete discussion.
This new piece explains how nature removed almost 20 Gt CO2 in a year and a half after the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. This defies published OIF models that say only about 1 Gt CO2 can be removed in a year, using all the oceans.
The refined process is Localized ocean fertilization, (LOF). It is based on new analysis of CO2 after volcanic eruptions and CO2 satellite data from NASA's OCO-2 .
“You can have your own opinions, but you can’t have your own data.” - Ken Buesseler
“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?” - John Maynard Keynes
The removal data is clear in the Keeling Curve, Mauna Loa CO2 data (blue), compared to a simple model (green).
Fig. 2. The lower panel compares actual CO2 levels measured at Mauna Loa (solid blue) with expected CO2 levels (dotted green). The discrepancy indicates long-term removal of 2.25 ppm of CO2. The upper panel shows that two eruptions of similar size and global cooling impact, Agung (1963) and El Chichon (1983) led to no persistent CO2 removal. (from Fiekowsky and Burnham, 2025)
The key points, for this audience, are:
Most CO2 removal occurs in downwelling eddies. Smetacek reported about 50% of biocarbon removal, compared to typically 1-2% removal using sinking diatoms in non-downwelling regions. Data analysis in process from NASA’s OCO-2 CO2 observatory satellite confirms this.
Maintaining higher iron levels allows growth of nitrogen fixing phytoplankton (cyanobacteria). This provides a continuing supply of critical nitrates. Sophie Bonnet writes about this
Other explanations for the 1992 CO2 removal, such as increased diffuse light and 0.5C lower temperature increasing photosynthesis and CO2 solubility, don’t fit the historical CO2 data. The other two large eruptions (Bali and El Chichon) that cooled the planet similarly, don’t show any significant CO2 impact.