Regional Marine Cloud Brightening Unintentionally Exacerbates Tropical Cyclone Exposure - Preprint

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-10316026/v1

Authors: Shoujuan Shu, Yaowen Zheng, Long Cao, Renguang Wu

Abstract

Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) is a geoengineering scheme to increase Earth’s albedo and reduce global warming. Previous studies mainly focused on mean climate response to MCB, leaving the response of global tropical cyclones (TCs), among the most devastating climate extremes, uninvestigated. Here, large-ensemble simulations are conducted using a newly developed observationally validated physics-based TC downscaling model under scenarios with and without regional MCB. It is found that regional MCB implemented mostly over the eastern Pacific can limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels through the 21st century. However, it also alters TC genesis locations and steering flow, unintentionally increasing the proportion of TC near-land (≤ 300 km) hours by ∼ 26% by 2081–2100. This shift in TC tracks drives ∼ 45% and ∼ 68% increases in annual land exposure area-hour and cumulative person-hour exposure, respectively. These findings underscore the need to integrate a better understanding of climate extremes in response to geoengineering.

Source: ResearchSquare