positive forcing in all SSPs but GMST falls ?

[Colin Forrest]

Hi,  could someone perhaps explain why the SSP 1.9 for example has a climate forcing of 1.9 W.m-2 at 2100, yet is modelled to produce a reduction in GMST ?

Considering that current net anthropogenic forcing is 2.72 W.m-2 (AR6, WG 1, full report, ch 7 page 926 )

Thanks,  Colin Forrest

[Govindasamy Bala]

It is all "relative". The 1.9 Wm-2 is relative to the pre-industrial times and hence there is a warming in 2100 relative to the preindustrial time.

However, in the SSP1-1.9 scenario, the forcing and warming peak somewhere around 2050, and then the forcing (and hence warming) decline slightly because of net negative emissions after 2050. Yes, there is slight cooling in 2100 relative to 2050..........

Cheers,

Bala

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With Best Wishes,

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G. Bala
Professor
Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Indian Institute of Science
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India

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