Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00466-4

Authors 

Chao Yue, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Ying Qu, Liyun Zhao & John C. Moore Show fewer authors

07 September 2023

Citation: Yue, C., Jevrejeva, S., Qu, Y. et al. Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 135 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4

Abstract

The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering methods (solar dimming and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection), that offset radiative forcing differences between SSP585 “no-mitigation” and the modest mitigation SSP245 greenhouse gas scenarios, to analyze the impact on global mean thermosteric and dynamic regional sea levels. By 2080–2099, both forms of geoengineering reduce global mean thermosteric sea level by 36–41% (11.2–12.6 cm) relative to SSP585, bringing the global mean SLR under SSP585 in line with that under SSP245, but do not perfectly restore regional SLR patterns. Some of the largest reductions (∼18 cm) are on densely populated coasts of eastern Northern America and Japan and along vulnerable Arctic coastal permafrost.

Source: Climate & Atmospheric Science 

[Geoengineering News]

https://m.x-mol.net/paper/article/1699824798857449472

Authors

Chao Yue, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Ying Qu, Liyun Zhao, John C. Moore

Pub Date: 2023-09-07

DOI:10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4

The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering methods (solar dimming and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection), that offset radiative forcing differences between SSP585 “no-mitigation” and the modest mitigation SSP245 greenhouse gas scenarios, to analyze the impact on global mean thermosteric and dynamic regional sea levels. By 2080–2099, both forms of geoengineering reduce global mean thermosteric sea level by 36–41% (11.2–12.6 cm) relative to SSP585, bringing the global mean SLR under SSP585 in line with that under SSP245, but do not perfectly restore regional SLR patterns. Some of the largest reductions (∼18 cm) are on densely populated coasts of eastern Northern America and Japan and along vulnerable Arctic coastal permafrost.

Source: XMOL