Impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering deployment and termination on extreme climate events in China

[Geoengineering News]

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-025-1886-7

Authors: Haotian Zhang, Chuanfeng Zhao, Annan Chen, Liya Niu, Shitao You, Jiefeng Li & Yehong Luo 

19 August 2026

Abstract

Amid the continuous rise in greenhouse gas emissions and accelerating global warming, stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has garnered increasing attention as a geoengineering method aimed at solar radiation management. Using multi-model simulations from the CMIP5/6 and GeoMIP experiments, this study analyzes the evolution of extreme temperature and precipitation indices over China from 2015 to 2100 under two representative scenarios: G6sulfur, which represents sustained SAI deployment under a high-emission background, and G3, which represents SAI implementation followed by termination under a moderate-emission background. Results show that under the G6sulfur scenario, SAI substantially suppresses regional warming, effectively constraining the increase in extreme high-temperature and heavy precipitation events, particularly across high-risk regions such as North China, East China, and the southeastern coastal areas. However, its regulation of drought and wetness persistence indices remains relatively limited. The G3 experiment further reveals a pronounced “termination effect”, characterized by a rapid rebound of temperature and extreme heat indices to levels above those observed under no intervention within 3 to 5 years after termination, highlighting significant short-term climatic risks. This study suggests that while SAI could provide temporary mitigation of regional extreme climate events, its potential side effects and abrupt termination responses warrant comprehensive evaluation to inform future climate policy and risk governance.

Source: Springer Nature Link