Identifying stable and effective solar geoengineering coalitions - Preprint

[Geoengineering News]

https://media.rff.org/documents/Andreoni_Extended_Abstract.pdf

Authors: Pietro Andreoni, Leonardo Chiani, Kate Ricke, Massimo Tavoni

Abstract 

We develop a novel framework to assess solar geoengineering outcomes under limited international cooperation, combining a high-resolution Integrated Assessment Model (RICE50+) with a climate emulator for stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Our approach integrates deep uncertainty quantification, global sensitivity analysis via optimal transport indices, and gametheoretic coalition stability concepts. We systematically explore over 1,800 representative coalition scenarios, capturing heterogeneity in physical responses, economic preferences, and deployment rules. This methodological innovation enables joint analysis of climatic and institutional dimensions of SAI, revealing key trade-offs between effectiveness and stability. Our results inform the design of viable, equitable geoengineering governance in an uncertain world.

Source: Media.rff