Less ice now than in 2007

[Stephen Salter]

Hi All

You can get useful graphs and Excel tables of the extent of Arctic ice cover from  http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Most of us know that the summer of 2007 was the lowest ever but that the area increased during the summers of 2008 and 2009.

But if you look at the graph today  you will see that the red line below has just crossed the yellow one so the rate of reforming of ice is lower than in any of the previous years at least since 2002.  It will be interesting to see what happens through the winter.  I will be watching day by day.

Stephen



-- 
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering and Electronics
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3JL
Scotland
tel +44 131 650 5704
fax +44 131 650 5702
Mobile  07795 203 195
S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs    

[John Nissen]

Hi Stephen,

Ken's hypothetical question on Chinese action is extremely relevant [1].� We are in danger of leaving it too late to save the Arctic sea ice, while positive feedbacks build up in the Arctic to make geoengineering less likely to succeed [2].� Meanwhile most of the world thinks that all that needs to be done it to reduce CO2 emissions, 50-80% by 2050, which will have negligible effect in the Arctic by 2030, let alone by 2015 or whatever is the latest projection of Arctic sea ice end-summer disappearance!

Is short-termism and money the problem?

The trouble is that it is in almost nobody's immediate financial interest to do anything to save the Arctic sea ice (and a number of oil and mining companies' interest to do nothing).� And few people seem prepared to contemplate the long-term interest - saving the planet for future generations [3].� Do those academics, who just wants to continue research on geoengineering until we reach a point of "last resort" (which will certainly be too late), really have the future of the planet uppermost in their minds? Would it be churlish to suggest that they are mainly motivated by research funding?� And, whilst there is funding to find out why geoengineering might _not_ work, there is no funding to find out how geoengineering could be made to work most cost-effectively and with minimum adverse side-effects.�

How can we engender the required urgency to take geoengineering seriously?

Cheers from Chiswick,

John

[1] Ken Caldeira's hypothetical question:
http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering/browse_thread/thread/083132195db5a0c8/414668cee4c02586?show_docid=414668cee4c02586

[2] Simple argument for urgent SRM geoengineering:
http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering/msg/8ea4216310ec8f1d

[3] Professor Jim Hansen in http://www.nybooks.com/articles/19131

"The greatest threat of climate change for human beings, I believe, lies in the potential destabilization of the massive ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. As with the extinction of species, the disintegration of ice sheets is irreversible for practical purposes. Our children, grandchildren, and many more generations will bear the consequences of choices that we make in the next few years."

---

Stephen Salter wrote:

Hi All

You can get useful graphs and Excel tables of the extent of Arctic ice cover from� http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Most of us know that the summer of 2007 was the lowest ever but that the area increased during the summers of 2008 and 2009.

But if you look at the graph today� you will see that the red line below has just crossed the yellow one so the rate of reforming of ice is lower than in any of the previous years at least since 2002.� It will be interesting to see what happens through the winter.� I will be watching day by day.

Stephen



-- 
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering and Electronics
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3JL
Scotland
tel +44 131 650 5704
fax +44 131 650 5702
Mobile  07795 203 195
S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs    

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