Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Rangeland Productivity and Animal Production in Africa

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1869700/abstract

Authors: Ashleigh Ho, Babatunde Abiodun, Randall Boone, Lili Xia, Bosede Olagbegi, Gabriel Lekalakala, Azwihangwisi Edward Nesamvuni, Brilliant Mareme Petja

27 July 2026

Abstract

African rangelands are crucial to the socio-economic security of millions. While studies have highlighted the threat that climate change poses to rangeland productivity, some have proposed stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a geoengineering strategy, to offset temperature-related impacts. However, the effectiveness of SAI in mitigating the impacts of climate change on African rangelands remains unknown. This study explores the potential influence of SAI on rangeland production in Africa. A process-based rangeland model Af-Range simulated rangeland vegetation and herbivore production. Climate simulation datasets from the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar Climate Intervention on the Earth System with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection were bias-corrected and used to force Af-Range simulations under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario, with and without SAI. The potential impacts of SSP2-4.5 and SAI were quantified for key climate, soil, vegetation, and animal variables. The economic consequences of changes in livestock production were also estimated. Under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario, Africa warms, with drying in West, Central, and Southern regions, and wetting in East Africa. SAI reduces warming but alters rainfall —drying Southern, Central, and East Africa (5, 4, and 5 mm/month) while wetting West Africa (5 mm/month). SSP2-4.5 increases vegetation cover but reduces biomass, whereas SAI decreases land cover while increasing biomass. These ecological shifts are shaped by species competition and soil characteristics. Animal production responses vary. Wild herbivores benefit from biomass gains, whereas domestic livestock show region-specific sensitivities—biomass drives productivity in North and West Africa, vegetation composition dominates in Central and Southern Africa, and East African livestock respond to both cover and productivity. SAI benefits livestock production in North, West, and East Africa (13.5, 0.765, and 3.15 billion USD) but causes losses in Central and Southern Africa (0.57 and 3.375 billion USD). These findings highlight the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure equitable outcomes across African rangelands.

Source: Frontiers