B31G-0377 TI: Ocean
fertilization, carbon credits and the Kyoto Protocol AU: * Westley, M B EM: marian....@noaa.gov AF: NOAA GFDL, 201
Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States AU: Gnanadesikan, A EM: anand.gna...@noaa.gov AF: NOAA GFDL, 201
Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States AB: Commercial interest in ocean fertilization as a carbon sequestration
tool was excited by the December 1997 agreement of the Kyoto Protocol to the
United Nations Convention on Climate Change. The Protocol commits industrialized
countries to caps on net greenhouse gas emissions and allows for various
flexible mechanisms to achieve these caps in the most economically efficient
manner possible, including trade in carbon credits from projects that reduce
emissions or enhance sinks. The carbon market was valued at $64 billion in 2007,
with the bulk of the trading ($50 billion) taking place in the highly regulated
European Union Emission Trading Scheme, which deals primarily in emission
allowances in the energy sector. A much smaller amount, worth $265 million, was
traded in the largely unregulated "voluntary" market (Capoor and Ambrosi 2008).
As the voluntary market grows, so do calls for its regulation, with several
efforts underway to set rules and standards for the sale of voluntary carbon
credits using the Kyoto Protocol as a starting point. Four US-based companies
and an Australian company currently seek to develop ocean fertilization
technologies for the generation of carbon credits. We review these plans through
the lens of the Kyoto Protocol and its flexible mechanisms, and examine whether
and how ocean fertilization could generate tradable carbon credits. We note that
at present, ocean sinks are not included in the Kyoto Protocol, and that
furthermore, the Kyoto Protocol only addresses sources and sinks of greenhouse
gases within national boundaries, making open-ocean fertilization projects a
jurisdictional challenge. We discuss the negotiating history behind the limited
inclusion of land use, land use change and forestry in the Kyoto Protocol and
the controversy and eventual compromise concerning methodologies for terrestrial
carbon accounting. We conclude that current technologies for measuring and
monitoring carbon sequestration following ocean fertilization are unlikely to
meet the Kyoto Protocol's verification and accounting standards for trading
carbon credits on the regulated market. The marketability of ocean fertilization
in the voluntary carbon marketplace will likely depend on companies' efforts to
minimize environmental risks and consumers' willingness to accept remaining
risks. DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806) DE:
0460 Marine systems (4800) DE: 0485
Science policy (6620) SC: Biogeosciences
[B] MN: 2008 Fall Meeting
[Comments. Sounds like an interesting
presentation. I was only aware of two, possibly three companies
attempting to develop ocean fertilization technologies to cash in on carbon
credits. Climos, Atmocean?, Ocean Nourishment and who are the
other two? Planktos is kaput. AG]
0800h AN: B31G-0367 TI: The impact of iron fertilization
on the upper ocean heat budget AU: * Strutton, P
G EM: stru...@coas.oregonstate.edu AF: College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University,
104 COAS Admin, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States AB: Oceanic iron fertilization has been suggested as a mitigation mechanism
to enhance the biological sequestration of anthropogenic CO2 in the deep ocean.
However, the phytoplankton blooms that are intended to sequester CO2 also change
the upper ocean heat budget by increasing the attenuation of solar radiation
near the surface. This process is in some ways analogous to the trade-off
between enhanced carbon uptake and reduced albedo that accompanies
reforestation. Field data and a 1D model show that iron-induced phytoplankton
blooms increase the net heat flux from ocean to atmosphere by as much as 12
W/m2, depending on the geographic location of the bloom (the Southern Ocean,
equatorial Pacific and sub- arctic Pacific are considered here). Heating of the
mixed layer also increases stratification, slowing the vertical transport of
nutrients that are necessary for sustaining the bloom. DE: 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0793, 1615,
4805, 4912) DE: 0428 Carbon cycling
(4806) DE: 4504 Air/sea interactions (0312,
3339) DE: 4805 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and
modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 1615, 4912) DE: 4806 Carbon
cycling (0428) SC: Biogeosciences [B] MN:
2008 Fall Meeting
11:50h AN: B22C-07 TI: Regulation of Ocean Iron
Fertilization (OIF): a Model for Balancing Research, Environmental and Policy
Concerns AU: * Leinen, M EM: mle...@climos.com AF: Climos, Inc., 119 S.
Columbus Street, Alexandria, VA 22314, United States AU: LaMotte, R EM: rlam...@bdlaw.com AF: Beveridge and Diamond,
1350 I Street Suite 700, Washington, DC 20005, United States AB:
The potential of enhancing carbon sequestration by the biosphere
for climate mitigation often raises questions of offsetting effects. These
questions become more important as the scale of the enhancement increases. Ocean
iron fertilization is accompanied by additional questions related to use of the
ocean commons. The London Convention (LC) and London Protocol (LP),
international treaties adopted in 1972 and 1996 respectively, were designed to
prevent use of the ocean for disposal of toxic, harmful and radioactive
pollutants. Recently the LC/LP has been called upon to decide whether climate
mitigation activities, such as subseafloor injection of CO2 and OIF, are legal
under the framework and, if so, how they should be regulated. The broad
consultation with the science community by the LC/LP in developing their
perspective, and the involvement of the NGO community in these deliberations,
provides a model for the process that the international policy community can use
to develop science-based regulatory guidelines for carbon mitigation projects
involving the commons. And the substance of that emerging regulatory framework
-- built on a national-level permitting process informed by internationally
agreed guidelines and standards -- may also serve as a model for the oversight
of other emerging technologies that take place in the global commons.
DE: 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and
modeling (0412, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912) DE: 0428 Carbon
cycling (4806) SC: Biogeosciences [B] MN:
2008 Fall Meeting
17:05h AN: OS34B-04 TI: Conceptual Approaches to Testing
the Efficiency and Impact of Ocean Iron Fertilization (OIF) for Enhancing CO2
Storage in the Ocean AU: Whilden, K EM:
kwhi...@climos.com AF: Climos, 512 2nd
Street, 4th floor, San Francisco, CA 94107, United States AU: * Leinen, M EM: mle...@climos.com AF: Climos, 512 2nd Street,
4th floor, San Francisco, CA 94107, United States AU: Whaley, D EM: dwh...@climos.com AF: Climos, 512 2nd Street,
4th floor, San Francisco, CA 94107, United States AB: Recent experiments to determine the efficiency of carbon sequestration
during natural and artificially stimulated phytoplankton blooms suggest that
bloom events can transfer as much as 50% of the new phytoplankton production to
depths below 500 m. Such efficiencies would make OIF a cost-effective mechanism
for CO2 mitigation. In order to further quantify sequestration and to determine
its impact on the ocean environment, the scientific community has proposed
larger (up to 200 × 200 km) OIF experiments and has suggested that they be
monitored for longer periods of time than previous experiments (up to 70 days).
In addition, new technologies for measurement and more sophisticated modeling to
both design the experiment and project its impact have been proposed. We will
report on a proposed project conceptual design for such an experiment.
DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806) DE: 4806 Carbon cycling (0428) SC: Ocean Sciences
[OS] MN: 2008 Fall Meeting
11:35h AN: B22C-06 TI: Ocean Fertilization and Ocean
Acidification AU: * Cao, L EM: lon...@stanford.edu AF: Department of Global
Ecology, Carnegie Institution, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, United
States AU: Caldeira, K EM: kcal...@stanford.edu AF: Department of
Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305,
United States AB: It has been suggested that ocean
fertilization could help diminish ocean acidification. Here, we quantitatively
evaluate this suggestion. Ocean fertilization is one of several ocean methods
proposed to mitigate atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The basic idea of this
method is to enhance the biological uptake of atmospheric CO2 by stimulating net
phytoplankton growth through the addition of iron to the surface ocean. Concern
has been expressed that ocean fertilization may not be very effective at
reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and may produce unintended environmental
consequences. The rationale for thinking that ocean fertilization might help
diminish ocean acidification is that dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations
in the near-surface equilibrate with the atmosphere in about a year. If ocean
fertilization could reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it would also reduce
surface ocean dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, and thus diminish the
degree of ocean acidification. To evaluate this line of thinking, we use a
global ocean carbon cycle model with a simple representation of marine biology
and investigate the maximum potential effect of ocean fertilization on ocean
carbonate chemistry. We find that the effect of ocean fertilization on ocean
acidification depends, in part, on the context in which ocean fertilization is
performed. With fixed emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere, ocean fertilization
moderately mitigates changes in ocean carbonate chemistry near the ocean
surface, but at the expense of further acidifying the deep ocean. Under the SRES
A2 CO2 emission scenario, by year 2100 simulated atmospheric CO2, global mean
surface pH, and saturation state of aragonite is 965 ppm, 7.74, and 1.55 for the
scenario without fertilization and 833 ppm, 7.80, and 1.71 for the scenario with
100-year (between 2000 and 2100) continuous fertilization for the global ocean
(For comparison, pre-industrial global mean surface pH and saturation state of
aragonite is 8.18 and 3.5). As a result of ocean fertilization, 10 years from
now, the depth of saturation horizon (the depth below which ocean water is
undersaturated with respect to calcium carbonate) for aragonite in the Southern
Ocean shoals from its present average value of about 700 m to 100 m. In
contrast, no significant change in the depth of aragonite saturation horizontal
is seen in the scenario without fertilization for the corresponding period. By
year 2100, global mean calcite saturation horizon shoals from its present value
of 3150 m to 2965 and 2534 m in the case without fertilization and with it. In
contrast, if the sale of carbon credits from ocean fertilization leads to
greater CO2 emissions to the atmosphere (e.g., if carbon credits from ocean
fertilization are used to offset CO2 emissions from a coal plant), then there is
the potential that ocean fertilization would further acidify the deep ocean
without conferring any chemical benefit to surface ocean waters. DE:
0793 Biogeochemistry (0412, 0414, 1615, 4805, 4912) DE:
1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414,
0793, 4805, 4912) DE: 4800 OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND
CHEMICAL (0460) DE: 4806 Carbon cycling
(0428) DE: 4875 Trace elements (0489) SC:
Biogeosciences [B] MN: 2008 Fall
Meeting
[Comments. So unless
the OIF credits are only used to offset nitrous oxide or halogen gases , i.e.
instead of CO2 emissions or methane that will oxidize to CO2, they
are useless as a mitigator of ocean acidification? The other case
where they might have some benefit is where their use is not tied to credits,
but then who pays for the OIF? In this case, OIF would be used like
aerosols or cloud brightening, to reduce the impact of global warming, but
without a direct tie in to carbon credits. Also, the world "shoals"
means to become more shallow for those not familiar with it.
AG]
16:10h AN: OS34B-01 INVITED TI:
Engineered Carbon Storage in the Oceans AU: * Caldeira, K EM: kcal...@dge.stanford.edu AF: Carnegie
Institution Dept. of Global Ecology, 260 Panama St., Stanford, CA 94035, United
States AU: Cao, L EM: lon...@dge.stanford.edu AF: Carnegie
Institution Dept. of Global Ecology, 260 Panama St., Stanford, CA 94035, United
States AB: The amount of carbon in the ocean is large
relative to the amount of fossil-fuel resources. The oceans are currently
absorbing over 8 billion tons of anthropogenic carbon dioxide each year and will
eventually absorb most anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. These
observations have led many to ask whether it might be helpful to engineer an
acceleration of this transfer of carbon to the oceans, and, if so, to understand
how this feat might be accomplished most economically and with a minimum of
adverse environmental consequence. There is no unique taxonomy of engineered
ocean carbon storage options, but they might broadly be divided into three
categories, depending on whether they depend for their efficacy primarily upon
physics, chemistry, or biology. Physics. Carbon dioxide could be
captured from power plants and injected deep in the ocean, where physical mixing
processes could keep it isolated from the atmosphere for centuries. Sub-species
of this category include injection of carbon dioxide directly into the deep
ocean, into seafloor lakes, or into engineered containment vessels.
Chemistry. Alkalinity, derived from limestone or other minerals, could
be added to the ocean, causing carbon to be stored effectively permanently in
the oceans primarily in the form of bicarbonate ions. Sub- species of this
category include the dissolution of calcium carbon at power plants or in
deep-waters near upwelling zones. Biology. Some of the organic matter
sinking from the surface ocean to the deep ocean is replaced by carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere. Thus, it has been proposed that we should attempt to
diminish atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by fertilizing the oceans.
Sub-species of this category include fertilization with micronutrients such as
iron or macronutrients such as nitrogen or phosphorus. This talk will present
this taxonomy and quantitatively discuss some of the pros and cons and
unanswered research questions associated with each approach. DE:
1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414,
0793, 4805, 4912) DE: 1622 Earth system modeling
(1225) DE: 4255 Numerical modeling (0545,
0560) DE: 4800 OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL
(0460) SC: Ocean Sciences [OS] MN: 2008 Fall Meeting
[Comments. A good overview that is needed to bring some of this
disparate material into context. AG]