Modest geoengineering side effects predicted by an emulator

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https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3308863/v1

Authors 

Tamas Bodai, Valerio Lembo, Sundaresan Aneesh, Miho Ishuzu, Matthias O. Franz, and Eui-Seok Chung

30 August 2023

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3308863/v1

Abstract

Side effects of solar radiation management geoengineering are unavoidable because the forcing involved is different in nature from the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Yet, the side effects should scale with the magnitude of the geonegineering forcing. Even then it is crucial to have detailed information about them. We use a response theory based emulator derived from new simulation output for the Max Planck Institute’s Earth system model, MPI-ESM, in order to evaluate the side effects in a scenario where CO2 emission abatement could also achieve the same constraint on peak global surface temperature. We find that the spatial patterns of the side effects for both annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation bear the same features as those known from the G2-type “cancellation” experiments of the Geo-MIP protocol.

Source: Research Square