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RESEARCH PAPERSXu Y, Ribar NP, Sachnik J, Schade GW, Lockley AJ, Zhang YG, Yu P, Hu J, Velders GJM. (2024). Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions? Atmosphere. 15(11):1322. Abstract Large volcanic eruptions, such as the prehistoric Yellowstone eruption, induce abrupt global cooling—by some estimates at a rate of ~1 °C/year, lasting for more than a decade. An abrupt global cooling of several °C—even if only lasting a few years—would present immediate, drastic stress on biodiversity and food production. This cooling poses a global catastrophic risk to human society beyond the immediate and direct impact of eruptions. Using a simple climate model, this paper discusses the possibility of counteracting large volcanic cooling with the intentional release of greenhouse gases. Longer-lived compounds (e.g., CO2 and CH4) are unsuitable for this purpose, but selected fluorinated gases (F-gases), either individually or in combinations, could be released at gigaton scale to offset large volcanic cooling substantially. We identify candidate F-gases (e.g., C4F6 and CH3F) and derive radiative and chemical properties of ‘ideal’ compounds matching specific cooling events. Geophysical constraints on manufacturing and stockpiling due to mineral availability are considered, alongside technical and economic implications based on present-day market assumptions. The effects and uncertainty due to atmospheric chemistry related to aerosol injection, F-gases release, and solar dimming are discussed in the context of large volcanic perturbation. The caveats and future steps using more complex chemistry–climate models are discussed. Despite the speculative nature of the magnitude and composition of F-gases, our conceptual analysis has implications for testing the possibility of mitigating certain global catastrophic cooling risks (e.g., nuclear winter, asteroid impact, and glacier transition) via intentional intervention.
Power, B. L. Disaggregating the Governance Dimensions of Solar Geoengineering. Abstract Recent discussions of the governance of solar geoengineering have emphasized the potential of a polycentric architecture. Specifically, recent contributions have recognized the importance of both international, top-down, structures, and the important role of national and potential sub-national governance entities that reflect diverse, bottom-up perspectives. Viewing solar geoengineering governance through a multi-level lens requires consideration of which governance tasks may be addressed at various levels, and whether formal or informal mechanisms hold utility in addressing these problems. This in turn requires attention be paid to disaggregating governance functions and matching those functions to appropriate governance levels. By disaggregating the key characteristics of governance concern, it may be possible to implement many smaller regulatory mechanisms which can be integrated into a globally effective policy regime, as anticipated under polycentric approaches. This paper is a first step towards mapping key characteristics of concern for the governance of solar geoengineering, and the relevant levels and type of governance institution, thereby developing the first components of a polycentric framework for the governance of solar geoengineering.
Sovacool, B. K., Evensen, D., Baum, C. M., Fritz, L., & Low, S. (2024). Demographics shape public preferences for carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering interventions across 30 countries. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 642. Abstract Climate intervention technologies such as carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering are becoming more actively considered as solutions to global warming. The demographic aspects of the public serve as a core determinant of social vulnerability and the ability for people to cope with, or fail to cope with, exposure to heat waves, air pollution, or disruptions in access to modern energy services. This study examines public preferences for 10 different climate interventions utilizing an original, large-scale, cross-country set of nationally representative surveys in 30 countries. It focuses intently on the demographic dimensions of gender, youth and age, poverty, and income as well as intersections and interactions between these categories. We find that support for the more engineered forms of carbon removal decreases with age. Gender has little effect overall. Those in poverty and the Global South are nearly universally more supportive of climate interventions of various types.
Varne, A. R., Blouin, S., Williams, B. L. M., & Denkenberger, D. (2024). The impact of abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios on renewable energy production. Energies, 17(20), 5147. Abstract To combat global warming, energy systems are transitioning to generation from renewable sources, such as wind and solar, which are sensitive to climate conditions. While their output is expected to be little affected by global warming, wind, and solar electricity generation could be affected by more drastic climatic changes, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRSs) caused by nuclear war (“nuclear winter”) or supervolcanic eruptions (“volcanic winter”). This paper assesses the impacts of an ASRS on global energy supply and security in a 100% renewable energy scenario. National generation mixes are determined according to roadmaps for a global transition to renewable energy, with wind and solar contributing a combined 94% of the global energy supply. Wind and solar generation are determined for a baseline climate and an ASRS following a large-scale nuclear exchange. While effects vary by country, overall wind and solar generation are expected to reduce by 59% in the first year following an ASRS, requiring over a decade for full recovery. Ensuring sufficient energy for everyone’s critical needs, including water, food, and building heating/cooling, would require international trade, resilient food production, and/or resilient energy sources, such as wood, geothermal, nuclear power, tidal power, and hydropower.
Erfani, E., Wood, R., Blossey, P., Doherty, S. J., & Eastman, R. (2024). Building a comprehensive library of observed Lagrangian trajectories for testing modeled cloud evolution, aerosol-cloud interactions, and marine cloud brightening. EGUsphere, 2024, 1-52. Abstract As marine low clouds’ evolution is sensitive to the current state of the atmosphere and varying meteorological forcing, it is crucial to ascertain how cloud responses differ across a spectrum of those conditions. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach to encompass a wide array of conditions prevalent in low marine cloud regions by creating a comprehensive library of observed environmental conditions. Using reanalysis and satellite data, over 2200 Lagrangian trajectories are generated within the stratocumulus deck region of the Northeast Pacific during summer 2018–2021. By using 8 important cloud-controlling factors (CCFs), we employ Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of data. This technique demonstrates that two principal components capture 43 % of the variability among CCFs. Notably, PCA facilitates the selection of a reduced number of trajectories (e.g., 54) that represent a diverse array of the observed CCF, aerosol, and cloud variability and co-variability. These trajectories can then be used for process model studies, e.g., with Large-Eddy Simulations (LES), to evaluate the efficacy of Marine Cloud Brightening. Two distinct cases are selected to initiate two-day-long, high-resolution, large-domain LES experiments. The results highlight the ability of our LES to simulate observed conditions. Although perturbed aerosols delay cloud breakup and enhance cloud radiative effect, the strength of such effects is sensitive to “precipitation-aerosol feedback”. The first case is precipitating and shows the potential for “precipitation-driven” cloud breakup due to positive precipitation-aerosol feedback. The second case is non-precipitating with classic cloud breakup of “deepening-warming” type, highlighting the impact of entrainment.
WEB POSTSThe Solar Geoengineering Updates Newsletter (October'2024) Solar Geoengineering UpdatesIf you find this work valuable, consider supporting us with a paid subscription. We put a lot of time and effort into it… 3 days ago · 3 likes · Andrew Lockley
PODCASTSSRM ethics - Hofbauer | Reviewer 2 Does Geoengineering | SRM ethics - Hofbauer Reviewer 2 does geoengineering 38:52 |
"Benjamin Hofbauer discusses 3 papers from his PhD, on the ethics of Solar geoengineering. Hofbauer, B. (2023). Systemic risks and solar climate engineering research. Integrating technology ethics into the governance of systemic risks. Journal of Risk Research, 26(12), 1383–1395. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2023.2288010 Hofbauer, B. (2023). Normative Uncertainty in Solar Climate Engineering Research Governance. Ethics, Policy & Environment, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/21550085.2023.2216148 Benjamin Hofbauer. Techno-moral change through solar geoengineering: How geoengineering challenges sustainability. Prometheus. 2022. Vol. 38(1). DOI: 10.13169/prometheus.38.1.0082"
Solar Radiation Management to Buy Time for Climate | Climate on the Edge | Solar Radiation Management to Buy Time for Climate Climate on the Edge 1:39:21 |
"As a climate investor focused on energy transition and carbon dioxide removal, I've spent years understanding and supporting technologies that drive decarbonization. But lately I've grown concerned that our progress isn't happening fast enough. The urgency of our situation. Which has become very apparent has left me curious about what else is out there. That's why I was so excited to speak with Kelly Wanser, Executive Director of SilverLining. SilverLining is a nonprofit organization dedicated to addressing climate risks through advancing research and equitable governance around solar radiation management. Kelly is an absolute powerhouse here and a true pioneer in this field. Our conversation will get into how SRM might work, where it's at today, what's needed to advance the field and why organizations like SilverLining and its backers believe that it should advance. We'll explore the economic and practical aspects, including concerns about SRM's affordability and the actual, very real logistical challenges of deploying any form of SRM responsibly on a global scale. Kelly is one of the world's most influential figures on SRM and climate intervention beyond emissions reduction. I hope this conversation is as thought-provoking for you as it was for me."
Silicon Valley Elites Want to Block the Sun. Not Everyone’s On Board | Big Take | Silicon Valley Elites Want to Block the Sun. Not Everyone’s On Board Big Take 13:52 |
"It sounds like science fiction, but it’s real: Venture capitalists, startup founders, and Silicon Valley elites are pouring money into a controversial technology called solar radiation modification that could cool the planet by blocking the sun. Today on the show, host Sarah Holder talks to Bloomberg reporter Sophie Alexander about the international coordination needed for something like this to work, and why funding for it is ramping up even as researchers express concerns about the possible consequences."
UPCOMING EVENTSEthics and Governance (title TBA) | 06 November 2024Good COP, Bad COP: a post-COP29 assessment | 27 November 2024
Solar Geoengineering Events Calendar
YOUTUBE VIDEOSCould India Help the World Address Extreme Climate Change? | Kelly Wanser | TEDxGateway | TEDx Talks "Kelly Wanser highlights India's expertise in technology and space exploration, along with its vulnerability to climate risks and how this positions it as a key player in advancing research in emergency climate interventions. She calls for informed decisions, global cooperation, and a role for India in shaping a safer future. Kelly Wanser is an innovator and the Executive Director of SilverLining, an organization dedicated to addressing climate change."
Dr Dante McGrath: Breaking the wall of the melting Arctic | Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge "Winner of the Falling Walls Lab Cambridge 2024, Dr Dante McGrath, #Research Associate in Marine Cloud Brightening at the Centre for #Climate Repair, University of Cambridge, pitched his proposal for interventions such as marine cloud brightening that may limit the impact of global warming on Earth’s ecosystems."
Annual Solar Geoengineering: Mitigating Yearly Global Warming Increases | Heat Pollution "This talk overviews at a basic level my paper published in the Journal climate with same name as the title. Key ideas are:-Annual Solar Geoengineering we reduce just enough solar radiation (Sunlight) to stop yearly global warming increases."
DEADLINES | |
