Macroclimate growing conditions for luxury crops after stratospheric aerosol injection

[Geoengineering News]

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfbff

Authors: Ariel L Morrison, Elizabeth A Barnes, James W Hurrell and Daniel M Hueholt

04 November 2025

DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/adfbff

Abstract

Luxury crops such as grapes, coffee, and cacao have immense economic and cultural importance in many regions. Climate change is affecting growing conditions across the globe. Natural climate variability may exacerbate the impact of increasing temperature and shifting precipitation patterns, leading to large interannual variations in yields, potentially resulting in revenue loss. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a form of solar climate intervention, has been proposed to potentially slow or reduce future surface temperature increases. Few studies have assessed how SAI may affect luxury crop growing conditions; none have done so in the context of natural variability. We compare daily and monthly output from two 10-member SAI simulations with a non-SAI simulation to assess how luxury crop growing conditions may change with and without SAI. For each year from 2036–2045 we use a composite of agroclimatic indices to determine whether a year has suitable conditions. We find that these SAI scenarios do not robustly preserve luxury crop growing conditions, despite stabilizing or reducing surface temperature increases compared to a scenario without SAI. Natural variability leads to a large spread in outcomes across ensemble members, due in large part to highly variable precipitation and humidity responses to SAI between members. In only six of the 18 regions assessed here do growing conditions improve in all climate realizations under SAI compared to the non-SAI scenario. Here, reducing disease risk is a key way that SAI improves luxury crop growing conditions. There is also a large inter-ensemble member spread in 2036–2045 revenue under SAI, underscoring the importance of including natural variability when assessing SAI’s potential influence on luxury crops. The signal is strongest in the SAI scenario with a lower temperature target, highlighting that scenario choice is also crucial in determining suitability for growing luxury crops under SAI.

Source: IOP SCIENCE