| SOLAR GEOENGINEERING WEEKLY SUMMARY (25 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER 2024) Subscribe to our newsletter to receive monthly updates on Solar Geoengineering:
RESEARCH PAPERSWohl, C., Villamayor, J., Galí, M., Mahajan, A. S., Fernández, R. P., Cuevas, C. A., ... & Saiz-Lopez, A. (2024). Marine emissions of methanethiol increase aerosol cooling in the Southern Ocean. Science Advances, 10(48), eadq2465. Abstract Ocean-emitted dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a major source of climate-cooling aerosols. However, most of the marine biogenic sulfur cycling is not routed to DMS but to methanethiol (MeSH), another volatile whose reactivity has hitherto hampered measurements. Therefore, the global emissions and climate impact of MeSH remain unexplored. We compiled a database of seawater MeSH concentrations, identified their statistical predictors, and produced monthly fields of global marine MeSH emissions adding to DMS emissions. Implemented into a global chemistry-climate model, MeSH emissions increase the sulfate aerosol burden by 30 to 70% over the Southern Ocean and enhance the aerosol cooling effect while depleting atmospheric oxidants and increasing DMS lifetime and transport. Accounting for MeSH emissions reduces the radiative bias of current climate models in this climatically relevant region.
Al-Qarni, A. (2024). Impacts of Geoengineering Through Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Global Weather Patterns. Abstract Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) has emerged as a promising geoengineering strategy to mitigate the impacts of climate change by reflecting solar radiation and reducing global temperatures. This study investigates the potential effects of SAI on global weather patterns, focusing on aerosol dispersion dynamics, temperature reduction, and precipitation variability. Utilizing advanced climate models and particle-tracking simulations, the research demonstrates that aerosol particles achieve near-global coverage within six months of equatorial injection, with coverage rates stabilizing at 97% after a decade. SAI-induced cooling was most pronounced in the first ten years, with a peak global temperature reduction of approximately 0.6°C compared to baseline scenarios. However, the cooling effects were transient, necessitating sustained injection to maintain temperature stabilization. Additionally, significant shifts in precipitation patterns were observed, including reduced tropical rainfall and increased polar precipitation, highlighting the complex interactions between aerosols and atmospheric systems. While SAI shows potential as a climate intervention tool, the study underscores the need for further research on its long-term environmental impacts, governance frameworks, and ethical considerations. This work contributes critical insights into the feasibility and risks of SAI, informing global discourse on geoengineering strategies.
Corry, O., McLaren, D., & Kornbech, N. (2024). Scientific models versus power politics: How security expertise reframes solar geoengineering. Review of International Studies, 1-20. Abstract Persistently rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations challenge dominant Liberal hopes that science and multilateralism might deliver rational, global climate outcomes. Emerging Realist climate approaches that take geopolitics and national interests more seriously have yet to explore Morgenthau’s concern that ‘scientism’ – exaggerated faith in scientific rationality to solve political problems – would lead to disastrous underestimations of power and irrationality. Recently, Realists have mooted ‘solar geoengineering’ designs as a ‘lesser evil’ option to deliberately cool the Earth independently of emissions reductions. However, assessments of solar geoengineering prospects barely factor in Realist concerns, focusing instead on idealised scientific modelling of bio-physical effects and Liberal governance scenarios. To explore how geoengineering techno-science would be ‘translated’ into security assessments, geopolitical logics were elicited through interviews and group discussions with (mainly Arctic-oriented) national security professionals. Security experts reframe solar geoengineering in three significant ways: (a) from a climate ‘global public good’ to a source of geopolitical leverage and disruption; (b) from a risk-reduction tool to a potential source of distrust and escalation; and (c) from a knowledge-deficit problem solvable by more research, to a potential disinformation vector. This expands Realist scholarship on climate change and identifies serious risks to ongoing scientific and commercial pursuit of such technologies.
Brent, K., Simon, M., & McDonald, J. (2024). From informal to formal governance of solar radiation management. Climate Policy, 1-18. Abstract There is growing interest in the potential for solar radiation management (SRM) to address rising global temperatures, both at global and regional levels. SRM schemes are highly controversial; their governance has come under close scrutiny from researchers and policymakers. Key challenges include how best to govern SRM to mitigate risk, promote social acceptability and encourage responsible research, development, and deployment. In the absence of formal targeted laws and policies, a proliferation of academic – and NGO-led voluntary principles have been proposed, to develop governance norms from the bottom up. In the past fifteen years, ten prominent governance proposals identified common principles, including: SRM to be governed as a public good; public consultation and research transparency; and impact assessment, monitoring and review. We systematically reviewed and categorized the principles in these governance proposals, demonstrating that there is a high level of commonality between the principles they contain. While more informal governance frameworks are currently being advocated and/or developed, we argue that further specificity in over-arching principles is not required because existing frameworks already provide policymakers with a basis for developing robust domestic instruments to govern SRM research and development. The priority now is to see these principles incorporated into more formal instruments, such as institutional research policies and domestic legislation, and adapted to local and national contexts. This next step is also necessary to evaluate how these principles operate in practice, especially in the event where SRM experiments are upscaled, and promote accountability and oversight.
Feder, A., Randall, D., & Dazlich, D. (2024). Effects of Warming and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Tropical Cyclone Distribution and Frequency in a High-Resolution Global Circulation Model. EGUsphere, 2024, 1-35. Abstract In recent years, as global circulation models (GCMs) have increased in spatial resolution, increasingly realistic tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC distributions have emerged from them. Where prior research on TC climatologies has relied on proxies like Potential Intensity (PI) and synthetic storm models, the cyclones emerging from the dynamics of newer GCMs can now be analyzed directly, using native model variables. Such direct analysis may be particularly useful in studying possible global storm distributions under radically altered future climates, including high-emissions warming scenarios, and even those shaped by climate interventions. These interventions include various directed changes in global albedo, such as Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), with only limited precedent in the historical period. GCMs simulating realistic climate intervention scenarios, have not as of yet paired storm-resolving resolution with realistic intervention scenario construction. This has left gaps in our understanding as to how interventions might affect global storm/TC distributions. In this paper, we utilize a new high-resolution model configuration to conduct experiments examining the effects of SAI, on tropical cyclones and global storm physics more broadly. These experiments are constructed based on prior work on SAI, using the GLENS GCM ensemble. Our analysis centers on 3 10-year experiments conducted using 30-km grid spacing. These include a recent-past calibration run; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate pathway SSP (IPCC, 2021), for the years 2090–2099, with no SAI; and SSP 8.5, with SAI having begun in 2020 to maintain a global temperature rise of no more than 1.5 °C, also simulated for the years 2090–2099. With the resulting data sets, we deploy a novel TC-tracking algorithm to analyze resulting changes in storm tracks and properties. Based on our results for these different scenarios, we find that SAI, while in some ways restoring global storm patterns to a pre-warming state, may also create unique basin-scale TC distribution features and pose novel related hazards.
Barnes, K., Jones, A. C., Williams, P. D., & Haywood, J. M. (2024). Reduced winter-time Clear Air Turbulence in the trans-Atlantic region under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection. Authorea Preprints. Abstract Clear air turbulence (CAT) is a safety threat within the aviation sector and is projected to worsen under global warming. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a climate intervention strategy that aims to ameliorate climate change by artificially cooling Earth. Climate model simulations have found a side-effect of SAI would be a strengthening of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This links to a stronger North Atlantic jet stream and suggests enhanced CAT in the region. Here, we analyse simulations from the UKESM1 climate model to evaluate the impact of a realistic SAI application on winter-time trans-Atlantic CAT. We find a 23 % decrease in severe CAT frequency under SAI when compared to a baseline high-end global warming scenario. Our results indicate that the amelioration of global warming under SAI has a more dominant impact on CAT over the North Atlantic than residual impacts to the NAO.
WEB POSTS
THESISHaaslahti, E. A. (2024). Expert Perceptions on Solar Radiation Modification as a Strategic Climate Response: Foresight on research and deployment from Finland. Abstract The world is approaching 1.5 C of global average temperature rise which marks a limit for ever more severe impacts from climate change. In climate science and policy spheres, Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) is increasingly being discussed based on its potential to rapidly reduce negative impacts as a complementary approach with decarbonization. Different technological approaches have been suggested to increase the amount of sunlight that is reflected to space. The scientific community is divided regarding potential benefits, risks and concerns linked to SRM, which makes it more difficult to foresee future trajectories and create governance for SRM activities. Understanding how experts perceive SRM research and deployment in relation to the broader range of climate response strategies and goals is important as it has critical policy implications in terms of the future of SRM technologies. This thesis studies the perceptions of climate change experts in Finland focusing on two of the most studied SRM approaches: stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB). Real-Time Delphi was applied to gather data among a small expert panel whose arguments were examined with qualitative content analysis through a constructive approach. A process model was produced to describe how 1) scientific and governance conditions, 2) attitudes, beliefs and feelings, 3) environmental and technological concerns, and 4) navigating climate scenarios and response strategies influence expert perceptions on SRM. The experts expressed consistent support for indoor research and small-scale field experiments around the two SRM methods arguing for precautionary approaches regarding climate emergency situations. SRM deployment was largely seen as undesirable. General pessimism towards global governance systems and climate action as well as solving justice issues was highlighted in the study. In the face of such radical uncertainties and social, technical, and ecological concerns, open dialogue about different perceptions on SRM can contribute to reflective, anticipatory, inclusive, and responsive policy making.
JOB OPPORTUNITIES"The Degrees Initiative mission is to change the global environment in which SRM is evaluated, ensuring informed and confident representation from developing countries."
PODCASTSAGU SRM research ethics - Felgenhauer | Reviewer 2 does geoengineering | AGU SRM research ethics - Felgenhauer Reviewer 2 does geoengineering 1:02:28 |
"AGU Ethical Framework Principles for SRM research Tyler Felgenhauer, Duke University https://news.agu.org/press-release/ethical-framework-climate-intervention-research/"
"In our first themed episode of the Climate Reflections podcast, we present many different viewpoints from around the world on the role and risks of sunlight reflection methods (SRM) - proposals to reflect some of the sun's light back to space in order to cool the planet."
"For this first News Roundup episode of Climate Reflections, we look back over the entire history of SRM and ahead to its future. For this, we are joined by 4 great guests with extensive experience working on this topic: -Inés Camilloni, a Professor at the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires and a Vice-Chair of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change’s working group on physical science. -Govindasamy Bala, a Professor at the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science who has worked on SRM longer than almost any other researcher, publishing his first article on this topic 24 years ago. -Oliver Morton, the Senior and Briefings editor at the Economist who has written extensively about SRM, including in his excellent 2016 book “The Planet Remade” -Cynthia Scharf, a senior fellow at the International Center for Future Generations, where she leads their work on SRM. She was previously senior strategy director for the Carnegie Climate Governance (C2G) Initiative, and served in the Office of the UN Secretary-General as the head of strategic climate communications."
Should we engineer the climate? Nick Breeze interviews Dr Heidi Sevestre and Herb Simmens | ClimateGenn hosted by Nick Breeze | Should we engineer the climate? Nick Breeze interviews Dr Heidi Sevestre and Herb Simmens ClimateGenn hosted by Nick Breeze 36:50 |
"In this Climategenn episode we hear two committed voices non different sides of the climate engineering debate, make their cases as to why we should or should not research geoengineering with the intention of deployment to cool the Earth. Dr Heidi Sevestre is an internationally renowned polar scientist making the case against climate engineering (also known as geoengineering) and Herb Simmens is the founder of an international group called the Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC). Both interviews were recorded at COP29 and reflect entrenched positions on both sides of the debate. There are many more voices and we urgently need to hear them - not least from the vulnerable communities who maybe severely impacted by such cooling schemes. The last word goes to Professor Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Vice Chair of the IPCC, where she comments on how climate engineering is moving into the main literature advising the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)."
YOUTUBE VIDEOSAdvancing Negative Emissions Technologies and The Governance of Solar Radiation Modification | Climate Overshoot Commission "Event at Tsinghua University (Beijing, China), with Commissioners Xue Lan and Pascal Lamy on 4 November."
UPCOMING EVENTSSolar Geoengineering Events Calendar | |
