Unequal socioeconomic exposure to drought extremes induced by stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

[Geoengineering News]

https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2266/

Authors

Weijie Fu, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo

Received: 14 May 2025 – Discussion started: 28 May 2025

How to cite. Fu, W., Yue, X., Tian, C., Xu, R., and Guo, Y.: Unequal socioeconomic exposure to drought extremes induced by stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2266, 2025.

Abstract

As global temperature rises, the severity and frequency of droughts are projected to increase. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) has been proposed as a potential solution to reduce surface temperatures, but its effectiveness in alleviating drought extremes remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the global impacts of SAG on drought extremes based on experiments from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) and the Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project (GLENS). By 2100, the frequency of drought extremes is projected to increase by 7.33 % under a high-emission scenario. SAG implementation reduces this increase by 1.99 % (1.80 % in GLENS), primarily due to its cooling effects. However, SAG-induced rainfall deficits lead to substantial inequity in drought responses. Countries with less development experience smaller reductions, or even increases, in economic and population exposure to extreme drought, compared to more developed nations. These findings highlight the urgent need for improved SAG design to prevent the exacerbation of climate injustice.

Source: EGUSphere