Hurricane Insurance
Alvia Gaskill
Bored With PCs, Bill Gates Sets His Sights On Controlling the Weather
Truly this is the age of Greenfinger: Billionaire Bill Gates has patented the idea to halt hurricanes by decreasing the surface temperature of the ocean.
The patent calls for a large fleet of specially equipped ships which would
mix warm water from the ocean surface with colder water down below, according to
five new patents that include Microsoft's chairman as a co-inventor. That could
then reduce or perhaps eliminate the heat-driven condensation which hurricanes
feed upon, thus significantly reducing their intensity.
The hurricane-stopper plan apparently hatched from a meeting of Intellectual Ventures, a patent house which regularly gathers scientists and technologists to brainstorm together. TechFlash notes that the official filings came through an Intellectual Ventures affiliate, Searete LLC.
One of the five patents also suggests how
to pay
for the massive seagoing fleet, including selling insurance
policies in hurricane-prone areas -- so much for the billionaire backer.
This represents just the latest in a long line of geoengineering proposals aimed at taming Mother Nature, whether aimed at climate change or hurricanes. Even the prestigious National Academy of Sciences held a workshop in June on geoengineering, although that ended with disagreements on whether the cure might be worse than the problem.
We previously looked at other plans regarding hurricanes, such as sending supersonic jets slicing into the eye of the giant storms. But for now, it's likely that coastal cities should at least invest in more grounded ideas to become hurricane-proof.
| United States Patent Application | 20090177569 |
| Kind Code | A1 |
| Bowers; Jeffrey A. ; et al. | July 9, 2009 |
Water alteration structure risk management or ecological alteration management systems and methods
A method of managing risk includes selling individual insurance policies regarding areas to be protected by storm suppression equipment. The method discussed also includes finding at least one of purchase, operation, or maintenance of the storm suppression equipment at least partially through premiums collected from the selling.
| Inventors: | Bowers; Jeffrey A.; (Kirkland, WA) ; Caldeira; Kenneth G.; (Campbell, CA) ; Chan; Alistair K.; (Stillwater, MN) ; Gates, III; William H.; (Redmond, WA) ; Hyde; Roderick A.; (Redmond, WA) ; Ishikawa; Muriel Y.; (Livermore, CA) ; Kare; Jordin T.; (Seattle, WA) ; Latham; John; (Boulder, CO) ; Myhrvold; Nathan P.; (Medina, WA) ; Salter; Stephen H.; (Edinburgh, GB) ; Tegreene; Clarence T.; (Bellevue, WA) ; Wood, JR.; Lowell L.; (Bellevue, WA) |
dsw_s
embodiment of thermally-enhanced ambient gases previously utilized in
the provision of patent-related legal services regarding the methods
herein referenced, could be released in at one surface region distant
from at least one storm, altering global circulation patterns etc.
Has anyone sorted through the gobbledygook to see what if anything the
patent application actually says?
On Jul 15, 11:53 am, "Alvia Gaskill" <agask...@nc.rr.com> wrote:
> Since we had a lengthy discussion about hurricane suppression and their contribution to global heat transport recently, I thought this would be of interest, especially since at least 4 group members are listed on the patent application. I've already had discussions with some of the people involved in this, but will limit my comments to information in the patent application.
>
> 1. The number of units (actually large floating rings with a plastic conduit extending below the surface) required to be effective is prohibitively large, just as in the case of the Atmocean and Lovelock/Rapley ideas, even though this one is based on a slightly different principle of getting denser deep water to mix with shallow surface water creating an equilibrium zone, thereby cooling the surface water and bringing up nutrient rich water into the photic zone.
>
> 2. The plastic conduit is described as either flexible or inflexible. The "flexible" one used in Discovery Project Earth's "Hungry Ocean" was 1000 ft long, made of what looked like a garbage bag-like material and lasted all of 1 day before ocean currents took care of it. The sturdiness of this material would seem to be a weak link in the design as it would have to withstand a real pounding and the heavier the material, the more costly.
>
> 3. Moving them around in anticipation of hurricanes or hurricane season would be equally prohibitively expensive or even impossible, although possibility is claimed in the patent (you can "claim" anything you want in a patent application).
>
> 4. There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding about how hurricanes form and exist after formation that all of the authors of this and similar ideas seem to not get or not want to get as that would spell the end of the idea and the flow of money from the financiers. I note that none of the names on the patent application are of hurricane experts.
>
> 5. For hurricanes to form, the SST (sea surface temperature) has to be around 81 degrees F down to about 150 ft. Once formed, however, hurricanes can travel over much colder water without losing their integrity, although some decline in intensity is likely. This depends in part on how fast they are moving.
>
> 6. Since one area of interest is the Gulf of Mexico (prime insurance territory I am told), I've included several figures showing the depth of water in the Gulf and Atlantic at different times of the year at which the temperature is 79 degrees F (the 81 degree figure is for formation, 79 is often reported as a temperature for continued existence without loss of energy).
>
> 7. In May of this year, the 79F depth was more than 300 ft in the western Carribean and parts of the Gulf. In early September 2007, this 300 ft depth extended into the Gulf and was nearly 500 ft off the coast of Louisiana. The 79F depth of over 200 ft. was prevalent throughout the Caribbean and along the southeast coast of the U.S.
>
> 8. These depth figures are important as the proposed device would extend downward 100 ft. For it to function as intended, it would have to draw up water from well below 100 ft that is much colder than 79F to create a hurricane unfriendly pool of water. It isn't at all clear that would be the case. It may just recycle one parcel of warm water with another one.
>
> 9. Rather than waste resources on trying to cool off the entire Atlantic basin, a better use of this idea would be to position the wave pumps over the Loop Current, shown below. This is believed to be the source of the very warm water that caused Katrina and Rita to explode from Cat 1 to Cat 5 status in less than 48 hours. However, this current still covers a very large area and is more than 100 miles wide.
>
> 10. Other uses of the device to provide nutrients to enhance phytoplankton growth, reduce atmospheric CO2 and increase fish populations seem equally speculative, given that no one has to date shown that other than temporary blooms from adding iron any of these are possible. The goal of increasing fish populations seems to overlook the fact that the baby fish have to grow up somewhere else and that ecosystem may be the determining factor, not artificially elevated nutrient levels in surface waters.
>
> 11. It's good to see that Myhrvold and Gates through their Ventures group are looking at some of these ideas. I published an interview with M last year you may recall where he and Gates were confidently predicting they had solved global warming, hurricanes and other problems. Predictions, however are much easier than solutions, as Microsoft's Tuesday patch e-mails regularly demonstrate. At least no mosquitoes were harmed in this effort.
>
> 12. Finally, Ken has served on a number of panels and given interviews where he has expressed skepticism and dismay over various OIF schemes. Now it seems, he is in the business himself. I guess it's hard to keep from biting the apples when your job is to inspect the orchard.
>
> Bored With PCs, Bill Gates Sets His Sights On Controlling the Weather
> Microsoft's chairman is part of a joint patent filing for using fleets of vessels to stop hurricanes via geoengineering
> By Jeremy Hsu Posted 07.10.2009 at 12:11 pm 18 Comments
>
> Truly this is the age of Greenfinger: Billionaire Bill Gates has patented the idea to halt hurricanes by decreasing the surface temperature of the ocean.
>
> The patent calls for a large fleet of specially equipped ships which would mix warm water from the ocean surface with colder water down below, according to five new patents that include Microsoft's chairman as a co-inventor. That could then reduce or perhaps eliminate the heat-driven condensation which hurricanes feed upon, thus significantly reducing their intensity.
>
> Patent-watcher "theodp" first spotted the new patent filings, and told TechFlash that the scheme reminded him of something Mr. Burns might have concocted in "The Simpsons" -- if the fictional industrialist hadn't already blown his master plan on blocking out the sun.
> The hurricane-stopper plan apparently hatched from a meeting of Intellectual Ventures, a patent house which regularly gathers scientists and technologists to brainstorm together. TechFlash notes that the official filings came through an Intellectual Ventures affiliate, Searete LLC.
>
> One of the five patents also suggests how to pay
> for the massive seagoing fleet, including selling insurance policies in hurricane-prone areas -- so much for the billionaire backer.
>
> This represents just the latest in a long line of geoengineering proposals aimed at taming Mother Nature, whether aimed at climate change or hurricanes. Even the prestigious National Academy of Sciences held a workshop in June on geoengineering, although that ended with disagreements on whether the cure might be worse than the problem.
>
> We previously looked at other plans regarding hurricanes, such as sending supersonic jets slicing into the eye of the giant storms. But for now, it's likely that coastal cities should at least invest in more grounded ideas to become hurricane-proof.
>
> United States Patent Application 20090177569
> Kind Code A1
> Bowers; Jeffrey A. ; et al. July 9, 2009
>
>
> Abstract
> A method of managing risk includes selling individual insurance policies regarding areas to be protected by storm suppression equipment. The method discussed also includes finding at least one of purchase, operation, or maintenance of the storm suppression equipment at least partially through premiums collected from the selling.
>
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Current
>
>
> http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2009139god26.png
>
> http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007246atd26.png
>
> hurricane%20plan_0.jpg
> 36KViewDownload
>
> weather_focus.jpg
> 93KViewDownload
>
> 2009139god26.png
> 257KViewDownload
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> 2007246god26.png
> 256KViewDownload
>
> 2007246atd26.png
> 335KViewDownload
Alvia Gaskill
patent. Have you considered a career as a patent attorney? I hear the pay
is good, but afterwards, your ability to communicate in written form will be
severely diminished. I would recommend reading it several times. It does
become somewhat clearer with each iteration.
dsw_s
did that all day, my ability to drool would be severely enhanced.
Reading several times? Ouch. I think I'd rather take your word for
what it says.
Then again, Einstein worked in a patent office. Maybe decoding
gobbledygook is good mental exercise.
> There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding about how hurricanes form and exist after formation that all of the authors of this and similar ideas seem to not get<
>
> read more »
Stephen Salter
Skilled patent writers try to be deliberately obscure so as to conceal information in the short term but be able to release it with unforeseen meanings in future court arguments. The attached preprint for the Uppsala wave conference in September is written with the intention of informing rather than confusing readers.
A good but painfully learned way to make things survive in waves is never to oppose forces which do not need to be opposed. Jellyfish do this well and our structure has much in common with them. The problem with the Discovery Channel test was at the junction of a rigid surface buoy, which could pitch through large angles, with the thin down pipe which could not. The buoy was also trying to accelerate a long length of water. Figure 1 of the attached paper shows a rolling belofram which allows plenty of relative angular and vertical movement. Wave action decays rapidly below the top part of the structure and the down tube can easily move more than the waves want to drive it. Its only strength requirement is to resist the internal pressure of a few hundred millimetres of water needed to overcome the thermal gradient. The two upper decks are both flexible and permeable. I hope that they will have a negative material cost.
You write that the number of units is prohibitively large. If the argument on page 4 about successive internal reflections is correct, each 100 metre unit would be moving thermal energy at a rate of 32 GW in a typical trade-wind wave climate. It would need 173 of them to cool the top 20 metres of a 2000 by 500 km rectangle by 2 Kelvin in the first year of operation. The number is less than 600 if we get only a single bite at incoming waves.
I agree with you that moving them around the oceans in anticipation of the hurricane season is difficult. It would be equally difficult to stop them moving around on their own The plan is therefore to let them drift freely but to release water to one side or the other so as to maintain a chosen distance from the centre of a gyre found in so may oceans. They should work throughout the year, not just before the hurricane season. A map of gyres should appear below if I can remember to enable html and if your browser can read it. I believe that there are systems of many smaller gyres in the Caribbean.
You is also correct that most of the names on the patent are engineers rather than hurricane experts. But engineers have to learn rapidly the essentials from many diverse fields and picking the best specialist people to give advice. Hurricane experts may not all be good at making things which work and so a combined effort is needed. The best ones have been generous with their advice. A useful source is Whitney and Hobgood in the 1997 issue of the Journal of Climate. A figure from this is shown below and does suggest a relationship between surface temperature and hurricane intensity.
You write that hurricane formation needs hot water down to 150 feet. If this is right it should make them more vulnerable to deliberate cooling. But can you explain how can conditions at this depth affect what goes on at the surface where all the evaporation that is driving the hurricane occurs?
We agree that that the water would have to be drawn from much more than 100 foot depth and that we must not recycle warm water. The unit in figure 1 reaches down 200 metres. A greater length may be needed in some sea areas but the cost of longer down tubes is low because of the taper and the lower water movements.
Your suggestion about the loop current is useful. I also think that we should also look at the path of hurricane growth from Africa. It seems better to stifle them early. I came across the interesting temperature map below. We do not need to cool the whole Atlantic basin but what goes around comes around.
You do not seem optimistic about the fish production but base this view on short term observations with single nutrients. What we are trying to do is replicate la Nina events in a permanent form and we know that these are very effective at stimulating fish growth. The artificial upwelling should steadily deliver the full cocktail of all the natural nutrients in the same way as the natural upwellings which are unfortunately rare. I hope that people will find figure 5 interesting and repeat for themselves the calculation about what would happen if just 10% of the unproductive blue area could be raised to only half the productivity the best area. Can you say how the results of the wave sinks on baby fish would be different from the natural la Nina events? By how much could we increase world fish production?
As well as all the fish it might also be interesting to ponder the addition of a wave-powered desalination plant, some hydroponics and comfortable accommodation on a larger structure. Real estate values for tropical islands are astonishing. Maybe it is not just boredom that motivates Bill Gates.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design School of Engineering and Electronics University of Edinburgh Mayfield Road Edinburgh EH9 3JL Scotland tel +44 131 650 5704 fax +44 131 650 5702 Mobile 07795 203 195 S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs
Alvia Gaskill
Contributed by Chris Landsea
Tropical cyclones can be thought of as engines that require warm, moist air as fuel (Emanuel 1987). This warm, moist air cools as it rises in convective clouds (thunderstorms) in the rainbands and eyewall of the hurricane The water vapor in the cloud condenses into water droplets releasing the latent heat which originally evaporated the water. This latent heat provides the energy to drive the tropical cyclone circulation, though actually very little of the heat released is utilized by the storm to lower its surface pressure and increase the wind speeds.
In 1948 Erik Palmen observed that tropical cyclones required ocean temperatures of at least 80°F (26.5°C) for their formation and growth. Later work (e.g., Gray 1979) also pointed out the need for this warm water to be present through a relatively deep layer (~150 ft, 50 m) of the ocean. This 80°F value is tied to the instability of the atmosphere in the tropical and subtropical latitudes. Above this temperature deep convection can occur, but below this value the atmosphere is too stable and little to no thunderstorm activity can be found ( Graham and Barnett 1987).
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/7520237.html
You may have already seen this patent, from Vladimir Zhekov located in hurricane endangered Key West, FL (a former home of mine as well). It also involves pumping colder water upwards to cool the SST. Instead of wave action, wind turbines are used to generate the pumping power and the platforms are anchored, not free floating as in your design. He also notes that water will need to be pumped from as deep as 500 ft, where he claims the water temperature is generally 11 degrees C, noting that 1L of water at this temperature will cool 15L of water at 26.5 degrees C by 1 degree C. And, like in your plan, the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) will be one of the locations where the platforms will be located. Perhaps he can work out a deal with Boone Pickens who is seeking to unload nearly 700 wind turbines he recently purchased.
Abstract:
14. A method to inhibit the formation of hurricanes, comprising: generating
power via a wind-driven power source disposed on a buoyant platform; powering a
water-moving system with the power; transporting water from deeper in an ocean
toward a surface of the ocean via the water-moving system; dispensing the water
from deeper in the ocean near the surface of the ocean; spreading the water from
deeper in the ocean in a manner to cause the mixing of cooler water of the ocean
surface with the water from deeper in the ocean; sensing a temperature of the
water near the surface of the ocean; deactivating the water-moving system if the
sensed temperature of the water near the surface of the ocean is cooler than
approximately 25.5 degrees Celsius; and reactivating the water-moving system if
the sensed temperature of the water nears the surface of the ocean is warmer
than approximately 25.5 degrees Celsius.
15. The method to inhibit the formation of hurricanes as recited in claim 14,
wherein the wind-driven power source is a wind turbine.
16. The method to inhibit the formation of hurricanes as recited in
claim 15, wherein the water-moving system utilizes a generally vertical
discharge water pipe to transport the water from deeper in the ocean to the
ocean surface.
17. The method to inhibit the
formation of hurricanes as recited in claim 16, further comprising: transporting
compressed air from an air compressor powered by the wind-driven power source to
a lower area of the generally vertical discharge water pipe; and mixing the
compressed air from the air compressor with the water in the generally vertical
discharge water pipe, whereby the water in the generally vertical discharge
water pipe is encouraged to rise toward the surface of the ocean.
While the present invention can be utilized anywhere in the world, it is anticipated that the preferable initial use will be in the Atlantic Ocean slightly above the equator, in the general area north of the coasts of the countries of Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and Brazil (in the general area of 10° to 16° North and 44° West), in the north trade wind stream area, as shown in FIG. 3. It is in this area that the most dangerous hurricanes that strike the United States are formed. An array of individual modules of the hurricane prevention system 10 can be installed in a single northwardly extending group, illustrated as Array Area A in FIG. 3. Alternatively, multiple arrays of individual modules of the hurricane prevention system 10 can be installed in several groups placed some distance apart, as demonstrated by Array Area A, Array Area B, and Array Area C, in FIG. 4.
A variety of patterns and spacing can be used for the specific placement of the individual modules 10 A, 10 B, 10 C, 10 D, etc., of the hurricane prevention system 10 within the hurricane prevention system array. For example, FIG. 5 illustrates an offset pattern allowing an approximate distance of 1500 feet between the individual modules of the hurricane prevention system 10 . A single offset row may be used, or, as illustrated, multiple offset rows may be used in the same array area. The specific configuration used will depend upon a variety of location specific factors including, for example, the ocean depth and the usual storm track pattern. The pattern of individual modules within the hurricane prevention system array, as well as the placement of the hurricane prevention system arrays, can be modified as required to meet the goal of reducing the sea surface temperature to below 26.5° C. It should be noted that 1 liter of water with a temperature of 10 degrees Celsius can generally cool 15 liters of water from a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius down to 25 degrees Celsius.
A possible auxiliary positive contribution of the hurricane prevention system 10 of the present invention, is that bringing the cooler water from deeper in the ocean to the surface additionally may bring water, nutrients, and/or other beneficial components to the surface, allowing for potential improvement of the environment for living organisms in the area of application. While water mass properties are highly asymmetric and site specific, potential may be realized to ameliorate depletion of oxygen in some areas of the ocean."
There is no shortage of such ideas "floating" around the patent offices. In the references to the above patent, I found http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2002/0009338.html
which seeks to stop not only hurricanes, but also El Nino by using a pumped gas to move colder water vertically. And this one as well, which uses pumps powered by wind turbines to do nearly the same: http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2007/0084767.html, http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2007/0084768.html
and finally, http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2007/0270057.html
in which wave energy is used with either flexible or fixed wall tubes to pump water to the surface. The patent also discusses spraying the water into the air to release heat energy. This system, badly described as it is, seems most similar to the one you are proposing, although with far less thought about the actual dynamics involved.
In the case of your design, I'm still having a problem accepting that ocean currents won't destroy the flexible tubes, irrespective of surface wave actions.
Won't the cooling effect reach a limiting value after some time? You estimate a 2 degree C cooling down to 60 ft after 1 year, but won't surface heating eventually bring this to a halt? Also, note that in some of the hurricane formation zones, while the temperature down to 150 ft can be around 80F, it can be much higher near the surface, so a 5 degree F (sorry to keep mixing up the units) cooling of 85F water to 60 feet does not preclude hurricane development. I guess I am skeptical about the efficiency of the system in addition to its ruggedness.
One final issue is that of the impact on shipping. If only a few thousand devices are required worldwide, then with proper identification, flashing lights, electronic signals, they can be detected before ships run over them. In the Gulf of Mexico, this may be more difficult to achieve. I also don't see the point of removing them once installed, unless there is a maintenance issue.
----- Original Message -----From: Stephen SalterSent: Thursday, July 16, 2009 8:05 AMSubject: [geo] Re: Hurricane Insurance
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
Alvia Gaskill
Can Bill Gates Control the Weather?
- By Brennon Slattery - Thu Jul 16, 2009 9:16AM EDT
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, is a man with a permanent light bulb over his head. His latest idea? Controlling the weather. Sounds insane, but in a patent application recently released to the public, Gates and several co-inventors have concocted a scheme to kill hurricanes over the ocean before they wreak havoc on land.
The idea is for barges to pump cold water from the depths of the ocean to create a sort of road block for the hurricane. Since hurricanes cull power from the water's warm temperatures, cooling the water could theoretically lessen the impact or outright dismantle a hurricane.
Intellectual Ventures Lab, an organization built by former Microsoft executives to brainstorm new technologies to benefit mankind, says that this isn't a Plan A or Plan B scenario, but rather a Plan C. Pablos Holman wrote in the company's blog that Big Hurricane Suck would be used when "humans decide that we have exhausted all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options and need to rely on mitigation technologies."
It's hard not to make a joke here about Windows -- the analogy is too powerful. Once Microsoft exhausted its resources patching and promoting Vista, it was forced into pushing Windows 7 out earlier than expected. Stop the storm before it intensifies, lands, and destroys PCs due to faulty builds. Ahh. There, I said it.
http://intellectualventureslab.com/?tag=hurricane-suppression
A Machine to Stop Hurricanes
It might be possible to suppress hurricanes so they aren’t so devastating to people who live in their path. We’ve been inventing in this area along with climate change and alternative energy sources. Today a patent application related to this was published by the USPTO and TechFlash has written a nice piece about this. Some of the questions that came up in the comments there are about whether this type of inventing should be done in the first place. We absolutely believe that we should investigate our options should the environmental change cause severe disruption. This type of technology is not something humankind would try as a “Plan A” or “Plan B.” These inventions are a “Plan C” where humans decide that we have exhausted all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options and need to rely on mitigation technologies. If our planet is in this severe situation, then our belief is that we should not be starting from scratch at investigating mitigation options.
We’re looking forward to discussing these ideas and will post more about them here later this year.
Pablos, thanks for providing some extra explanation. I’ve posted a follow-up on TechFlash (http://bit.ly/zx5ZK) so that more people will have this additional context.
Also in that post are more comments from the University of Miami’s David Nolan, questioning whether the concept would work as outlined in the patent filings. Would be great to hear your thoughts on those questions, as well.
Bill Gates' hurricane stopper would be 'Plan C' for humanity
Environment | Bill Gates | Nathan Myhrvold | Microsoft
The environmental impact was one concern raised by readers following our post detailing the hurricane-supression system proposed by Bill Gates, former Microsoft chief techology officer Nathan Myhrvold and others. In response, one of the people working on the project in Myhrvold's Intellectual Ventures Lab has posted an explanation on the company's site.
"This type of technology is not something humankind would try as a 'Plan A' or 'Plan B,' " writes Paul "Pablos" Holman in the Intellectual Ventures post. "These inventions are a 'Plan C' where humans decide that we have exhausted all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options and need to rely on mitigation technologies. If our planet is in this severe situation, then our belief is that we should not be starting from scratch at investigating mitigation options."
Pablos also posted that as a comment on our original post.
David Nolan, the University of Miami professor we spoke with for the initial post, has since expressed additional doubt about whether the concept would work at all. The plan, as outlined in patent filings by Gates, Myhrvold and others, appears to rely largely on a technique for pushing warm water down to alter the surface temperature of the ocean, rather than bringing cold water up.
Here's what Nolan says:
If that's the case, it's even less likely to work. Some of the warm water would be replaced by cold water coming up from below, but some of it would be replaced by warm water converging from outside the region. Also, it's very hard for cold water to come up from below, as it is cooler and therefore more dense than the warm water above. (When warm fluid lies over cold fluid, as in 99.99% of the ocean, vertical motions are strongly suppressed. This is called "stratification.") Similarly, it's hard for warm water to go down. The idea of using breaking waves to make a column of water that is slightly higher than sea level is a good one, but because it is warmer, the whole column may not even weigh more than the surrounding water even if it is taller.
Pablos from Intellectual Ventures Lab notes that the company will be providing more information about the project later this year, so apart from the environmental questions, it will be interesting to see how they address the issues Nolan raises.
Alvia Gaskill
One force of nature vs. another: Bill Gates tries to stop hurricanes
Television | Bill Gates | Nathan Myhrvold | Microsoft
Recent patent filings have shown Bill Gates and his friends exploring subjects as diverse as electromagnetic engines and beer kegs. Now they're thinking even bigger -- trying to stop hurricanes.
Microsoft's chairman is among the inventors listed on a new batch of patent applications that propose using large fleets of vessels to suppress hurricanes through various methods of mixing warm water from the surface of the ocean with colder water at greater depths. The idea is to decrease the surface temperature, reducing or eliminating the heat-driven condensation that fuels the giant storms.
The filings were made by Searete LLC, an entity tied to Intellectual Ventures, the Bellevue-based patent and invention house run by Nathan Myhrvold, the former Microsoft chief technology officer. Myhrvold and several others are listed along with Gates as inventors.
The diagram at right is from one of five related patent applications made public this morning. So how exactly do they plan to stop hurricanes? Here's an excerpt from the filing that explains the diagram.
Vessel 100 is a tub-like structure having one or more walls 110 and a bottom 115. Vessel 100 may be held buoyant in the water by one or more buoyancy tanks 120 which may be used to maintain the buoyancy of vessel 100 and further may be used to control the height of walls 110 above the water level. Vessel 100 also includes a conduit 125 whose horizontal cross section is substantially smaller than the horizontal cross section of the tub portion 130 of the vessel defined by walls 110. In an exemplary embodiment, conduit 125 extends well below the ocean surface including depths below the ocean's thermocline.
In most circumstances, most of the sunlight impinging on the ocean surface is absorbed in the surface layer. The surface layer therefore heats up. Wind and waves move water in this surface layer which distributes heat within it. The temperature may therefore be reasonably uniform to depths extending a few hundred feet down from the ocean surface. Below this mixed layer, however, the temperature decreases rapidly with depth, for example, as much as 20 degrees Celsius with an additional 150 m (500 ft) of depth. This area of rapid transition is called the thermocline. Below it, the temperature continues to decrease with depth, but far more gradually. In the Earth's oceans, approximately 90% of the mass of water is below the thermocline. This deep ocean consists of layers of substantially equal density, being poorly mixed, and may be as cold as -2 to 3.degree. C.
Therefore, the lower depths of the ocean may be used as a huge heat/energy sink which may be exploited by vessel 100. When vessel 100 is deployed at sea, waves 135 may lap over the top of walls 110 to input warm (relative to deeper waters) surface ocean water into tub 130. Tub 130 will fill to a level 140 which is above the average ocean level depicted as level 145. Because of the difference between levels 140 and 145, a pressure head is created thereby pushing warm surface ocean water in a downward direction 150 down through conduit 125 to exit into the cold ocean depths (relative to near surface waters) through one or more openings 155. In an exemplary embodiment, the depth of opening 155 may be located below the ocean's thermocline, the approximate bottom of which is depicted as line 160. This cycle will be continuous in bringing warm surface ocean water to great depth as ocean waves continue to input water into tub 130. If many of vessel 100 are distributed throughout a region of water, the temperature of the surface of the water may be altered.
"Many" is the important concept there at the end.
Gates, Myhrvold and associates aren't the first to propose reducing the ocean's surface temperature as a means of suppressing hurricanes, said David Nolan, an associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.
"Every couple of years there's a news story that gets picked up for some hurricane-suppression idea," Nolan said via phone this morning. "They’re all kooky in their own way. Some of them are more plausible than others, but they all face an enormous problem of scale. ... You would have to cover an incredible area with this effect to reduce the temperature of the ocean by a significant amount."
Of course, a big difference in this case is that one of the people making the suggestion is one of the world's richest men. But don't look for Gates to fund the deployment of thousands of these vessels. One of the patent filings proposes paying for the equipment through the sale of insurance policies in hurricane-prone areas, in addition to funding from state, federal and local government agencies.
Patent watcher "theodp," who tipped us off to the filings, says he was reminded of "The Simpsons" as he read through them. "The richest man in the world hatches a plan to alter weather and ecology in return for insurance premiums and fees from governments and individuals," he writes. "It's got kind of a Mr. Burns feel to it, no?"
The hurricane-suppression patent applications date to early 2008, but they were first made public this morning.
These and previous Searete LLC patent filings are believed to result from brainstorming sessions regularly held by Intellectual Ventures, in which Gates has been known to take part. It's not clear how or when Intellectual Ventures might go forward with any of these ideas.
dsw_s
would be to have floating structures that increase the coupling
between wind and surface currents. Of course, that's based my
impression that windmills are the lowest-cost energy collection
system, and that eventually the areas of good wind on land won't be
enough, so it will be economically feasible to put windmills at sea,
or nearly so.
On Jul 16, 12:56 pm, "Alvia Gaskill" <agask...@nc.rr.com> wrote:
> http://tech.yahoo.com/news/pcworld/20090716/tc_pcworld/canbillgatesco...
> More discussion of the Microsoft Platform for Wind Suppression. The professor from U. Miami echoes a concern of mine as well that the water in the ocean moves horizontally as well as vertically. However, having enough devices positioned close enough together would tend to offset at least the surface changes in water temperature from warm water infiltration. Dr. Nolan also thinks the entire concept is flawed.
>
> From a policy perspective, it is interesting that Gates et al. (actually Gates, as et al. really has no say) wants his own insurance policy from critics, stating that the technology would only be used if all other mitigation options were exhausted. Really? Look, we had killer hurricanes long before the industrial revolution. If this technology could prevent 1 cat 1 storm from becoming a cat 3-5 and striking the U.S. mainland, it would be worth the trouble up to several billion dollars. TODAY.
>
> Applying this to remove CO2 from the atmosphere as is one of its stated applications is more relevant to the "should we do it now or later" argument. But Stephen, based in part on Ken's calculations has argued that there would be benefits above and beyond carbon credits for biomass removal. So, I find the Plan C argument unbelieveable and thus makes me wonder if IV is a vanity patent factory to help improve the Boss Man's public image at a time when billionaires, however they got their money, are not all that popular.
>
> Can Bill Gates Control the Weather?
> Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, is a man with a permanent light bulb over his head. His latest idea? Controlling the weather. Sounds insane, but in a patent application recently released to the public, Gates and several co-inventors have concocted a scheme to kill hurricanes over the ocean before they wreak havoc on land.
>
> The idea is for barges to pump cold water from the depths of the ocean to create a sort of road block for the hurricane. Since hurricanes cull power from the water's warm temperatures, cooling the water could theoretically lessen the impact or outright dismantle a hurricane.
>
> Intellectual Ventures Lab, an organization built by former Microsoft executives to brainstorm new technologies to benefit mankind, says that this isn't a Plan A or Plan B scenario, but rather a Plan C. Pablos Holman wrote in the company's blog that Big Hurricane Suck would be used when "humans decide that we have exhausted all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options and need to rely on mitigation technologies."
>
> It's hard not to make a joke here about Windows -- the analogy is too powerful. Once Microsoft exhausted its resources patching and promoting Vista, it was forced into pushing Windows 7 out earlier than expected. Stop the storm before it intensifies, lands, and destroys PCs due to faulty builds. Ahh. There, I said it.
>
> http://intellectualventureslab.com/?tag=hurricane-suppression
>
> A Machine to Stop Hurricanes
>
> July 10th, 2009 pablos Leave a comment Go to comments
> It might be possible to suppress hurricanes so they aren’t so devastating to people who live in their path. We’ve been inventing in this area along with climate change and alternative energy sources. Today a patent application related to this was published by the USPTO and TechFlash has written a nice piece about this. Some of the questions that came up in the comments there are about whether this type of inventing should be done in the first place. We absolutely believe that we should investigate our options should the environmental change cause severe disruption. This type of technology is not something humankind would try as a “Plan A” or “Plan B.” These inventions are a “Plan C” where humans decide that we have exhausted all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options and need to rely on mitigation technologies. If our planet is in this severe situation, then our belief is that we should not be starting from scratch at investigating mitigation options.
>
> We’re looking forward to discussing these ideas and will post more about them here later this year.
>
> Todd Bishop
> July 11th, 2009 at 16:04 | #1
> Reply | Quote
> Pablos, thanks for providing some extra explanation. I’ve posted a follow-up on TechFlash (http://bit.ly/zx5ZK) so that more people will have this additional context.
>
> Also in that post are more comments from the University of Miami’s David Nolan, questioning whether the concept would work as outlined in the patent filings. Would be great to hear your thoughts on those questions, as well.
>
> Bill Gates' hurricane stopper would be 'Plan C' for humanity
> By Todd Bishop on July 11, 2009 at 3:50 PM PDT
> Comments (3) | Permalink
> Environment | Bill Gates | Nathan Myhrvold | Microsoft
>
>
> "This type of technology is not something humankind would try as a 'Plan A' or 'Plan B,' " writes Paul "Pablos" Holman in the Intellectual Ventures post. "These inventions are a 'Plan C' where humans decide that we have exhausted all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options and need to rely on mitigation technologies. If our planet is in this severe situation, then our belief is that we should not be starting from scratch at investigating mitigation options."
>
> Pablos also posted that as a comment on our original post.
>
> David Nolan, the University of Miami professor we spoke with for the initial post, has since expressed additional doubt about whether the concept would work at all. The plan, as outlined in patent filings by Gates, Myhrvold and others, appears to rely largely on a technique for pushing warm water down to alter the surface temperature of the ocean, rather than bringing cold water up.
>
> Here's what Nolan says:
>
> If that's the case, it's even less likely to work. Some of the warm water would be replaced by cold water coming up from below, but some of it would be replaced by warm water converging from outside the region. Also, it's very hard for cold water to come up from below, as it is cooler and therefore more dense than the warm water above. (When warm fluid lies over cold fluid, as in 99.99% of the ocean, vertical motions are strongly suppressed. This is called "stratification.") Similarly, it's hard for warm water to go down. The idea of using breaking waves to make a column of water that is slightly higher than sea level is a good one, but because it is warmer, the whole column may not even weigh more than the surrounding water even if it is taller.
>
> Pablos from Intellectual Ventures Lab notes that the company will be providing more information about the project later this year, so apart from the environmental questions, it will be interesting to see how they address the issues Nolan raises.
>
> 3KViewDownload
>
> hurricanesmall.jpg
> 29KViewDownload
Stuart Strand
I hope that there will be a peer-reviewed publication soon. I may read that since those are not supposed to be written to obfuscate.
Question: Do the patent claimants consider the CO2 that would be released by this mixing of the oceanic layers? Or perhaps it would impact the ability of that part of the ocean to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. Seems to me that it cannot be a good thing to speed up mixing of the sequestered deep ocean pool.
= Stuart =
Stuart E. Strand
167 Wilcox Hall, Box 352700, Univ. Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
voice 206-543-5350, fax 206-685-3836
skype: stuartestrand
From: geoengi...@googlegroups.com
[mailto:geoengi...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alvia Gaskill
Sent: Thursday, July 16, 2009 9:56 AM
To: S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk
Cc: geoengi...@googlegroups.com
Subject: [geo] Re: Hurricane Insurance
Stephen Salter
There should have been a preprint of a paper to the European Wave and
Tidal Energy Conference attached to my reply to Alvia but if it got lost
I will send you another.
The CO2 transfers to and from the oceans are far larger than present
anthropogenic ones. The phytoplankton grow at a much higher rate than
vegetation on land and reach maturity in a few days. But if they then
decay the enormous amount of CO2 gets back into the atmosphere. The
trick will be to have a food chain reaching to creatures big enough to
fall to the sea bed at the end of their life cycle. We should let the
sardines do it.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering and Electronics
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3JL
Scotland
tel +44 131 650 5704
fax +44 131 650 5702
Mobile 07795 203 195
S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs
>
> I hope that there will be a peer-reviewed publication soon. I may read
> that since those are not supposed to be written to obfuscate.
>
> Question: Do the patent claimants consider the CO2 that would be
> released by this mixing of the oceanic layers? Or perhaps it would
> impact the ability of that part of the ocean to absorb CO2 from the
> atmosphere. Seems to me that it cannot be a good thing to speed up
> mixing of the sequestered deep ocean pool.
>
> = Stuart =
>
> Stuart E. Strand
>
> 167 Wilcox Hall, Box 352700, Univ. Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
>
> voice 206-543-5350, fax 206-685-3836
>
> skype: stuartestrand
>
> http://faculty.washington.edu/sstrand/
>
> [mailto:geoengi...@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Alvia Gaskill
> *Sent:* Thursday, July 16, 2009 9:56 AM
> *To:* S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk
> *Cc:* geoengi...@googlegroups.com
> *Subject:* [geo] Re: Hurricane Insurance
> http://tech.yahoo.com/news/pcworld/20090716/tc_pcworld/canbillgatescontroltheweather
>
> More discussion of the Microsoft Platform for Wind Suppression. The
> professor from U. Miami echoes a concern of mine as well that the
> water in the ocean moves horizontally as well as vertically. However,
> having enough devices positioned close enough together would tend to
> offset at least the surface changes in water temperature from warm
> water infiltration. Dr. Nolan also thinks the entire concept is flawed.
>
> From a policy perspective, it is interesting that Gates et al.
> (actually Gates, as et al. really has no say) wants his own insurance
> policy from critics, stating that the technology would only be used if
> all other mitigation options were exhausted. Really? Look, we had
> killer hurricanes long before the industrial revolution. If this
> technology could prevent 1 cat 1 storm from becoming a cat 3-5 and
> striking the U.S. mainland, it would be worth the trouble up to
> several billion dollars. TODAY.
>
> Applying this to remove CO2 from the atmosphere as is one of its
> stated applications is more relevant to the "should we do it now or
> later" argument. But Stephen, based in part on Ken's calculations has
> argued that there would be benefits above and beyond carbon credits
> for biomass removal. So, I find the Plan C argument unbelieveable and
> thus makes me wonder if IV is a vanity patent factory to help improve
> the Boss Man's public image at a time when billionaires, however they
> got their money, are not all that popular.
>
>
> Can Bill Gates Control the Weather?
>
>
> <http://www.pcworld.com/>
> Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, is a man with a permanent light bulb
> over his head. His latest idea? Controlling the weather. Sounds
> insane, but in a patent application
> concocted a scheme to kill hurricanes over the ocean before they wreak
> havoc on land.
>
> The idea is for barges to pump cold water from the depths of the ocean
> to create a sort of road block for the hurricane. Since hurricanes
> cull power from the water's warm temperatures, cooling the water could
> theoretically lessen the impact or outright dismantle a hurricane.
>
> Intellectual Ventures Lab, an organization built by former Microsoft
> executives to brainstorm new technologies to benefit mankind, says
> that this isn't a Plan A or Plan B scenario, but rather a Plan C.
> Pablos Holman wrote in the company's blog
> exhausted all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options
> and need to rely on mitigation technologies."
>
> It's hard not to make a joke here about Windows -- the analogy is too
> powerful. Once Microsoft exhausted its resources patching and
> promoting
> lands, and destroys PCs due to faulty builds. Ahh. There, I said it.
>
> http://intellectualventureslab.com/?tag=hurricane-suppression
>
>
> July 10th, 2009 pablos <http://intellectualventureslab.com/?author=2>
> Leave a comment <http://intellectualventureslab.com/?p=126#respond> Go
> to comments <http://intellectualventureslab.com/?p=126#comments>
> It might be possible to suppress hurricanes so they aren’t so
> devastating to people who live in their path. We’ve been inventing in
> this area along with climate change and alternative energy sources
> application
> <http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PG01&p=1&u=/netahtml/PTO/srchnum.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=>
> nice piece about this
> type of inventing should be done in the first place. We absolutely
> believe that we should investigate our options should the
> environmental change cause severe disruption. This type of technology
> is not something humankind would try as a “Plan A” or “Plan B.” These
> inventions are a “Plan C” where humans decide that we have exhausted
> all of our behavior changing and alternative energy options and need
> to rely on mitigation technologies. If our planet is in this severe
> situation, then our belief is that we should not be starting from
> scratch at investigating mitigation options.
>
> We’re looking forward to discussing these ideas and will post more
> about them here later this year.
>
> July 11th, 2009 at 16:04 | #1
>
> Reply <javascript:void(0);> | Quote <javascript:void(0);>
> Pablos, thanks for providing some extra explanation. I’ve posted a
> follow-up on TechFlash (http://bit.ly/zx5ZK) so that more people will
> have this additional context.
>
> Also in that post are more comments from the University of Miami’s
> David Nolan, questioning whether the concept would work as outlined in
> the patent filings. Would be great to hear your thoughts on those
> questions, as well.
>
> http://www.techflash.com/microsoft/Bill_Gates_hurricane_stopper_would_be_Plan_C_for_humanity_50544257.html
>
>
> Bill Gates' hurricane stopper would be 'Plan C' for humanity
>
> By Todd Bishop on July 11, 2009 at 3:50 PM PDT
>
> Comments (3)
> | Permalink
> <http://www.techflash.com/microsoft/Bill_Gates_hurricane_stopper_would_be_Plan_C_for_humanity_50544257.html>
>
> Environment
> <http://www.techflash.com/search/?catSet=5399&catID=260402> | Bill
> Gates <http://www.techflash.com/search/?catSet=5404&catID=231534> |
> Nathan Myhrvold
> <http://www.techflash.com/search/?catSet=5404&catID=238694> |
> Microsoft <http://www.techflash.com/search/?catSet=5424&catID=232039>
> The environmental impact was one concern raised by readers following
> our post detailing the hurricane-supression system
> Nathan Myhrvold and others. In response, one of the people working on
> the project in Myhrvold's Intellectual Ventures Lab has posted an
> explanation on the company's site
> "This type of technology is not something humankind would try as a
> 'Plan A' or 'Plan B,' " writes Paul "Pablos" Holman in the
> Intellectual Ventures post. "These inventions are a 'Plan C' where
> humans decide that we have exhausted all of our behavior changing and
> alternative energy options and need to rely on mitigation
> technologies. If our planet is in this severe situation, then our
> belief is that we should not be starting from scratch at investigating
> mitigation options."
>
> Pablos also posted that as a comment on our original post
> David Nolan, the University of Miami professor we spoke with for the
> initial post, has since expressed additional doubt about whether the
> concept would work at all. The plan, as outlined in patent filings
> for pushing warm water down to alter the surface temperature of the
> ocean, rather than bringing cold water up.
>
> Here's what Nolan says:
>
> If that's the case, it's even less likely to work. Some of the warm
> water would be replaced by cold water coming up from below, but some
> of it would be replaced by warm water converging from outside the
> region. Also, it's very hard for cold water to come up from below, as
> it is cooler and therefore more dense than the warm water above. (When
> warm fluid lies over cold fluid, as in 99.99% of the ocean, vertical
> motions are strongly suppressed. This is called "stratification.")
> Similarly, it's hard for warm water to go down. The idea of using
> breaking waves to make a column of water that is slightly higher than
> sea level is a good one, but because it is warmer, the whole column
> may not even weigh more than the surrounding water even if it is taller.
>
> Pablos from Intellectual Ventures Lab notes that the company will be
> providing more information about the project later this year, so apart
> from the environmental questions, it will be interesting to see how
> they address the issues Nolan raises.
>
>
>
> >
Stephen Salter
this may be one of them. Figure 2 shows that the two top rings are made
by lashing used tyres. We have to pay for the rope but people pay us to
take the tyres away.
The site http://press.wrap.org.uk/article/18502/ quotes amounts up
to £8.21 each for truck tyres. Does anyone have figures for the US?
I agree that we should study the biological effects of the first few
sinks very carefully and try to adjust spacing for the best balance
between oxygen, CO2 and nutrients. I would hope that the effects will
avoid those of the deluge of fertilizer coming down the Mississippi.
I do not think that we will be trying to cool a thick layer of the
ocean. We preferentially remove the warmest water from the surface, say
10 to 20 metres depending on our choice of valve wall depth and take it
down to the thermocline at say 200 metres. Nathan Myhrvold's model
suggests that the mixed water rises to the level where it meets water of
its own density and then spreads sideways like a fairly thin rock
stratum. Oil slicks with a higher viscosity spread out quite fast. We
have some control of this depth below the surface by choosing the mixing
ratio though a shape change of the exit. Ken wants us to get it up to
100 metres below the surface where there is enough daylight to get the
phytoplankton started.
As hurricanes provide lots of useful rain we do not want to stop all of
them, just shift the Whitney-Hobgood figure a chosen amount to the left
instead rather than letting it creep to the right.
See http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/Papers_data_graphics.htm
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering and Electronics
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3JL
Scotland
tel +44 131 650 5704
fax +44 131 650 5702
Mobile 07795 203 195
S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs
dsw_s wrote:
>> I hope that they will have a negative material cost.
>>
>
> How does that work? Are they made out of some kind of waste material?
>
>
>> It seems better to stifle them early.
>>
>
> They're what cools the sea surface farther down their paths, and warm
> Europe. If you stifle them early, you'll presumably do the opposite.
> That could mean that when you finally don't stifle one, it will have
> warmer water at the latter part of its trajectory, and potentially do
> more damage.
>
>
>> We do not need to cool the whole Atlantic basin but what goes around comes around.
>>
>
> If you warm the whole Atlantic at depths around 100M, doesn't that
> come around too?
>
>
>> What we are trying to do is replicate la Nina events in a permanent form and we know that these are very effective at stimulating fish growth. The artificial upwelling should steadily deliver the full cocktail of all the natural nutrients in the same way as the natural upwellings which are unfortunately rare.
>>
>
> The ecology of a food source with occasional mastings or population
> explosions is likely to be different from that of a smaller but steady
> food source. The more often we remake the ecology of the oceans, the
> more extinctions will accumulate. On the other hand, artificial
> upwelling may help stop extinctions in some specific cases. We need
> to learn about the ecology that we're already pervasively affecting.
> Interventions made in near-total ignorance are more likely to do harm
> than good.
>
>
>> You write that hurricane formation needs hot water down to 150 feet. If this is right it should make them more vulnerable to deliberate cooling.
>>
>
> A thick layer of water is harder to cool than a thin layer, so if the
> development of hurricanes is dependent on the temperatures of a thick
> layer that should mean they're less sensitive to deliberate cooling.
Alvia Gaskill
http://www.recycle.net/cgi-bin/exview.cgi?wscg=01-130101
You may have to pay $2-3 each to purchase used tires in bulk.
Transportation is probably the largest hidden cost, so obtaining them as
close to the point of manufacturing is the best option. If the Gulf of
Mexico is the initial location, then Texas and Alabama are good choices
since the transit distances are much less than say, from the northeastern
U.S. Alabama also still has large stockpiles remaining to be recycled.
For your application, the tires have to be in good shape and probably
uniform in size which will require a more selective approach than for use as
fuel or road paving. Nearly 300 million used tires are generated each year
in the U.S., so there's no shortage. I estimated each of your floating
"vessels" at around $100K USD, including labor and transportation. If the
estimates you provided about how many are required are correct, the cost of
the devices is nominal. It is the performance that is in question.
Regarding the issue of bringing up CO2 with the colder water that Stuart
mentioned, you wrote that the deeper water has the pre-industrial level of
CO2. The depths you are talking about, from the surface to 1000 ft
(assuming that water gets drawn upwards to some density equilibrium level)
is still very shallow and would probably have about the same CO2 content as
the surface. Light penetrates almost to 600ft, so this is still almost
within the photic zone. So it would have no impact on increasing or
decreasing surface or atmospheric CO2 levels via the mixing.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Stephen Salter" <S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk>
To: "dsw_s" <ds...@yahoo.com>; "geoengineering"
<geoengi...@googlegroups.com>; "Casey Tegreene" <Cas...@IntVen.com>
Sent: Friday, July 17, 2009 6:02 AM
Subject: [geo] Re: Hurricane Insurance
Andrew Lockley
dsw_s
to allow air to move from the edges of cyclonic circulation to the
innermost part at which winds are still weak enough not to destroy the
tube. The tube would be suspended in part by having a cross section
that acts as a wing, and in part by having chambers with solar-heated
air (or hydrogen or helium). By going through the tube, air could
move down the pressure gradient without being opposed by centrifugal
and Coriolis forces. By choosing what height to have the ends of the
tube at, the pressure gradient could be used to move dry air at higher
potential temperature downward so that rising air wouldn't be heated
by condensation. Alternatively, the heights could be chosen and the
tube designed so as to increase the latent and sensible heat content
of the air at the destination end of the tube, to increase local
convection. Alternatively again, the height of the intake end could
be so high as to facilitate local convection as the air going into the
tube is replaced partly by air from below. The purposes of increasing
local convection include depriving the hurricane's main circulation of
the energy that drives the convection, creating turbulence that will
dissipate some of the mechanical energy of the hurricane, and (if the
convection so created is far enough out that the weather was clear) to
cool the sea surface by increasing cloudiness.
The tube could be put up and taken down in sections, and each section
stored in a water-tight container when not in use. When taken down to
avoid being destroyed by hurricane winds, a section could be stored in
a container of near-neutral buoyancy underwater at a depth where wave
action is weak enough not to destroy it. The sections could be
stationed in appropriate locations in advance.
On Jul 21, 8:06 am, Andrew Lockley <andrew.lock...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I've already suggested using compressed air to move water columns in an
> email to the group. I'm pretty sure it pre-dated the patent. The idea's
> not novel anyway - fishtanks have been using it for years.
> I've had two new ideas recently which might work on hurricanes.
>
> 1) Pour vegetable oil on the sea. This will block evaporation and reduce
> heat transfer.
> 2) Pour Kellogg's corn flakes, or similar, into the sea. You could fry them
> first, to stop them going soggy. This would have several effects: Impede
> heat transfer, increase albedo, impede evaporation (if fried). Polystyrene
> balls could also be used, but are not biodegradable.
>
> I hope people can send me lots of criticisms of the above.
>
> A
> PS It looks like I might have got someone to supervise my Geoengineering
> PhD. Hurrah!
>
> > The link and excerpt below is the source of my comment about the 150ft
> > depth requirement for hurricane formation. I don't have a copy of Gray's
> > paper on this, which seems to be the source of all citations to this
> > depth, but suspect it has something to do with wave action from winds and
> > ocean currents bringing deeper water to the surface. So while the SST and
> > the water to a very shallow depth is important, there must be a reservoir of
> > warm water below that to replace the surface water that is being constantly
> > removed elsewhere, either by wave action or by evaporation to fuel the
> > developing thunderstorms. This works to the advantage of the hurricane, but
> > to the disadvantage of the hurricane buster as unless most of this band of
> > warm water is cooled to below the critical temperature(s), surface
> > conditions may return to those favorable to hurricane development and
> > growth. As we learned previously, hurricanes themselves do a pretty good
> > job of stirring up the water in their path, making it more difficult for
> > those that follow to either develop or intensify.
>
> >http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A16.html
>
> > temperatures to form ?*
>
> > *Contributed by Chris Landsea*
> > Tropical cyclones can be thought of as engines that require warm, moist air
> > in the rainbands and eyewall of the hurricane The water vapor in the cloud
> > condenses into water droplets releasing the latent heat which originally
> > evaporated the water. This latent heat provides the energy to drive the
> > tropical cyclone circulation, though actually very little of the heat
>
> > (26.5°C) for their formation and growth. Later work (e.g., Gray 1979<http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqREF.html#G>)
> > relatively deep layer (~150 ft, 50 m) of the ocean. This 80°F value is tied
> > to the instability of the atmosphere in the tropical and subtropical
> > latitudes. Above this temperature deep convection can occur, but below this
> > value the atmosphere is too stable and little to no thunderstorm activity
> > ).
> >http://www.freepatentsonline.com/7520237.html
>
> > You may have already seen this patent, from Vladimir Zhekov located in
> > hurricane endangered Key West, FL (a former home of mine as well). It also
> > involves pumping colder water upwards to cool the SST. Instead of wave
> > action, wind turbines are used to generate the pumping power and the
> > platforms are anchored, not free floating as in your design. He also notes
> > that water will need to be pumped from as deep as 500 ft, where he claims
> > the water temperature is generally 11 degrees C, noting that 1L of water at
> > this temperature will cool 15L of water at 26.5 degrees C by 1 degree C.
> > And, like in your plan, the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) will be
> > one of the locations where the platforms will be located. Perhaps he can
> > work out a deal with Boone Pickens who is seeking to unload nearly 700 wind
> > turbines he recently purchased.
> > Alternatively, multiple arrays of individual modules of the hurricane
> > Area C, in FIG. 4.
>
> > A variety of patterns and spacing can be used for the specific placement of
> > hurricane prevention system *10 *within the hurricane prevention system
> > approximate distance of 1500 feet between the individual modules of the
> > specific configuration used will depend upon a variety of location specific
> > factors including, for example, the ocean depth and the usual storm track
> > pattern. The pattern of individual modules within the hurricane prevention
> > system array, as well as the placement of the hurricane prevention system
> > arrays, can be modified as required to meet the goal of reducing the sea
> > surface temperature to below 26.5° C. It should be noted that 1 liter of
> > water with a temperature of 10 degrees Celsius can generally cool 15 liters
> > of water from a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius down to 25 degrees
> > Celsius.
>
> > A possible auxiliary positive contribution of the hurricane prevention
> > nutrients, and/or other beneficial components to the surface, allowing for
> > potential improvement of the environment for living organisms in the area of
> > application. While water mass properties are highly asymmetric and
>
>
> read more »
>
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