The Healthy Planet Action Coalition welcomes Mr Anton Keskinen, organiser of the just completed Arctic Momentum Conference in Finland, as our guest speaker this week.
Date: Thursday 7 September
Time: 10pm Finland (=3pm EST, 8pm UK, 5am Friday Australia AEST)
Duration: 90 minutes
Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=WVZoeTBnN3kyZFoyLzYxZ1JNbDFPUT09
Anton will explain key outcomes from the Conference followed by discussion with meeting participants. All welcome.
Operaatio Arktis (operaatioarktis.fi/en) organized the public event ARCTIC MOMENTUM on 31st August in Helsinki, Finland, about the state of the Arctic, and why we should conduct more research on climate interventions.
Event page with more information on the high level goals, as well as the program: https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/arcticmomentum
Description
“We are a group of climate activists, turned from the street movement to advance and lobby for climate intervention research. Our goal is to preserve the Arctic Summer Sea Ice. For that we urge the Finnish government to take lead on the research needed. We are open for the possibility of finding several complementing methods to achieve this – perhaps some direct sea ice growth manipulation and SRM combined with the obvious emission reductions and GHG removal. Part of our mission is to bring different stakeholders and research teams together to enable visioning how climate intervention methods could complement each other, instead of focusing on debating which one is better or worse idea.
The public session on 31st August is part of a larger three-day gathering, where we bring together indigenous leaders, activists, scientists, government officials and policy makers, to discuss who, if at all, should we move forward with preserving the Arctic.
One of our main messages is that we must shift from the old climate paradigm (Climate Mitigation) to a new climate paradigm (Climate Repair). The old paradigm is about reducing emissions, accepting the damage that's unavoidable with emission cuts, and adapting when possible. The new paradigm states that we must reduce emissions, and try to prevent and repair the damage that's unavoidable even with sharp emission cuts, and adapt when possible. While the old paradigm presents what we call in our publication Arctic Endgame "politics of accepted victims", the new paradigm is antidote for this.
We aim to change this climate paradigm first in Finland, and then in the whole World.
You can read Arctic Endgame here: https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/en/arctic-endgame
For those of you (I assume most) who cannot attend our public event on 31st in person, the event will be streamed on our Youtube page: https://www.youtube.com/@operaatioarktis2193
Follow us on
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/operaatioarktis/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/OperaatioArktis
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/OperaatioArktis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z-OwNu_8Uo&t=1333s
The Arctic Momentum movement and Anni's statement (that in addition to Anton's and the Momentum group's organizing efforts - inspired I believe by the June 6, 2023, CCRC Workshop on Albedo Enhancement and Refreezing the Arctic initiated by Robert Tulip - also benefited from the input of Daleanne Bourjaily and others) is in IMO brilliant!
Best,
Ron
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The recording of this meeting is at https://youtu.be/unPOcBY3idU
Thank you very much Anton for joining us.
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On 9 Sep 2023, at 3:15 pm, Ye Tao <t...@rowland.harvard.edu> wrote:Dear Ron,
First, I also applaud Anton for an excellent presentation and thank the whole team at Operatioo Arktis for being excellent hosts. I thank you, Ron, for your enthusiasm, which I sadly find problematic. Ron’s and our enthusiasm has many legs to its' stool, several of which seem likely to be both feasible and effective. This is far better than fatalism, denial, obstruction, BAU, mild or delayed action, or apathy.
A major learning, or rather realization, for many of us at Arctic Momentum is how little we understand the science of SAI, MCB, and any of the many proposed regional techniques presented at the conference. Some discussion groups also mentioned that we don't yet have a clear idea on how to decide among various climatic outcomes, even if assuming the science and engineering eventually advance to such a point that climate and weather could be designed with high fidelity. We cannot afford to wait for high fidelity. Nor do we need to decide now on which are to be the specific climate interventions and locales in which to deploy them. Our general state of ignorance inspired my recent post about starting to develop "figure of merit function(s)" to evaluate climate outcomes based on globally agreed upon targets ultimately stemming from a set of morally robust values. A small group at NOAC/HPAC/PRAG are now developing those very same figure of merit functions. Given ubiquitous chasms in knowledge gaps, we would be mistakenly putting the horse before the cart try leveraging the moment for the specific end of getting SAI implemented. There are several NOAC-based methods that are safer and often easier, cheaper and quicker to develop that is SAI.
There is no skipping steps to good science and engineering, and SAI and MCB are a couple decades of research away from acceptable scientific understanding and technical readiness. I disagree, several NOAC methods might well be sufficiently developed to warrant testing within just a few years. There are so many known unknowns and known problems with SAI, some of which I have mentioned before here on this forum and which have yet to be addressed. But less so with some of the other methods.
In the interim, there are a variety of local geoengineering methods that need to be given priority. Global safety must be prioritized in our line of work. In the emergency situation we find ourselves, and using gated, localised testing, global safety means that some risks must be taken as they are far less than not acting. One needs to balance risk and likely effect against risk and likely effect, just as do professional risk managers. Promising local methods include mechanically slowing down ice melting by raising kinetic barriers, MEER for adaptive mitigation to help victims of our excesses here and now, ice thickening methods to preserve annually average albedo, and targeted preservation of Arctic ice by new methods Agreed, though our figure of merit assessments may well rule out many such methods. I will hopefully soon share in a HPAC talk.
While collaboration and support by Finland, Norway, Canada, the US, [RUSSIA], and Arctic indigenous peoples would be critically important, they are insufficient for ensuring that modifying global climate is done in a factually democratic fashion In an emergency situation democracies typically delegate decisions to those best placed to make them, by the people and for the people. While we know very little about SAI, what we do know is that anything SAI with polar impact would have a global impact elsewhere. All sovereign states need to be included in this conversation, at the very beginning. But not where the effects of gated testing are likely to be localised. Then, only early notification and published EIS’s should be required.
Since the science is simply not there. Let's start here. Experimental science is where priority must be place, not computer simulations which not event the coders trust. Right, but do not stop trying to model the effects. It is insufficient to appear to be inclusive. I see a growing trend towards building a facade of inclusiveness. It is suspect to fund a selected few high profile and visible Global South researchers to participate in research using computer codes developed by academics from the Northern, studying specific methods proposed by a handful of individuals from the North. If we were truly undertaking this endeavor for justice and a future worth fighting for, we must do much more and much better. I repeat my words on emergency situations. Inclusion is great if it can be achieved with little loss of development speed. Moreover, as developing nations are likely to be first and most adversely affected by global warming (Arctic nations excluded), these are just the locales where early testing should take place - inclusively.
Best
Ye
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Really important issues being touched on
here. I've been otherwise occupied in recent days but plan to
watch the recording shortly and offer some further thoughts
then. I sense we're getting to the core of why decisive and
effective action is so challenging. I don't think it's
impossible, but to make it happen we need to calibrate our
expectations across a number of interconnected realms of which
the technology is possibly the least demanding.
Robert
Thanks, Sev -
I had similar reaction and you’ve expressed my thoughts more precisely and clearly.
Especially your references to gated, localised testing while intensely monitoring for global responses, ramping up in discrete steps, making adjustments as appropriate.
Cheers,Doug
Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)
On Sep 9, 2023, at 3:15 AM, 'Sev Clarke' via Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
Folks,
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Also, biological material affects the fluid mechanics of the water surface, resulting for example, in long-lasting surface foams.58
Dear Ye, all,Last year I spoke to General Gus Perna who headed the covid vaccine task force in the US. The scientists were reluctant to approve the science, there was so much more research to be done.What the general said was that he took into account the strategic risk to health and the economy of waiting for a 100% consensus as he would do in a conflict situation.On those grounds he decided that 75% would translate to approval. So that is when the vaccine was launched. To wait in a situation of that magnitude was no longer an option. Have we not reached the same point on planetary cooling?So given that there are three or four nature -based/biomimetic interventions that could be immediately deployed in field trials, should we not together identify and choose the ones that have the most potential right now? That will allow us to seek funding and priorities for both governance and the trials themselves.Looking forward to your advice, as many of you as possible.Best regards,Dale AnneOp za 9 sep. 2023 01:15 schreef Ye Tao <t...@rowland.harvard.edu>:
Dear Ron,
First, I also applaud Anton for an excellent presentation and thank the whole team at Operatioo Arktis for being excellent hosts. I thank you, Ron, for your enthusiasm, which I sadly find problematic.
A major learning, or rather realization, for many of us at Arctic Momentum is how little we understand the science of SAI, MCB, and any of the many proposed regional techniques presented at the conference. Some discussion groups also mentioned that we don't yet have a clear idea on how to decide among various climatic outcomes, even if assuming the science and engineering eventually advance to such a point that climate and weather could be designed with high fidelity. Our general state of ignorance inspired my recent post about starting to develop "figure of merit function(s)" to evaluate climate outcomes based on globally agreed upon targets ultimately stemming from a set of morally robust values. Given ubiquitous chasms in knowledge gaps, we would be mistakenly putting the horse before the cart try leveraging the moment for the specific end of getting SAI implemented.
There is no skipping steps to good science and engineering, and SAI and MCB are a couple decades of research away from acceptable scientific understanding and technical readiness. There are so many known unknowns and known problems with SAI, some of which I have mentioned before here on this forum and which have yet to be addressed.
In the interim, there are a variety of local geoengineering methods that need to be given priority. Global safety must be prioritized in our line of work. Promising local methods include mechanically slowing down ice melting by raising kinetic barriers, MEER for adaptive mitigation to help victims of our excesses here and now, ice thickening methods to preserve annually average albedo, and targeted preservation of Arctic ice by new methods I will hopefully soon share in a HPAC talk.
While collaboration and support by Finland, Norway, Canada, the US, [RUSSIA], and Arctic indigenous peoples would be critically important, they are insufficient for ensuring that modifying global climate is done in a factually democratic fashion, by the people and for the people. While we know very little about SAI, what we do know is that anything SAI with polar impact would have a global impact elsewhere. All sovereign states need to be included in this conversation, at the very beginning.
Since the science is simply not there. Let's start here. Experimental science is where priority must be place, not computer simulations which not event the coders trust. It is insufficient to appear to be inclusive. I see a growing trend towards building a facade of inclusiveness. It is suspect to fund a selected few high profile and visible Global South researchers to participate in research using computer codes developed by academics from the Northern, studying specific methods proposed by a handful of individuals from the North. If we were truly undertaking this endeavor for justice and a future worth fighting for, we must do much more and much better.
Best
Ye
On 9/8/2023 6:08 PM, Ron Baiman wrote:
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Hi All
I am attaching a note about a way to concentrate plastic which came out of a surprising result from tank tests of wave energy devices. If the freeboard is low there can be downward forces during the crest and the trough of a wave and a net force into the wind direction.
Big rings would find their own way to the centre of a gyre in the same way that the plastic does. 1 km diameter high tensile steel would not survive but 250 micron poly ethylene can take 17% strain and so would be safe.
Stephen
From: Ye Tao <t...@rowland.harvard.edu>
Sent: 10 September 2023 14:25
To: Bhaskar M V <bhaska...@gmail.com>
Cc: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; Sev Clarke <sevc...@icloud.com>; Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>; Stephen Salter <S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk>; Robert Tulip <rob...@rtulip.net>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>;
Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; NOAC <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>; geoengineering <geoengi...@googlegroups.com>; Anton Keskinen <keskin...@gmail.com>; Ellen Haaslahti <el...@operaatioarktis.fi>
Subject: Re: Does plastic pollution cause more sea foam?
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You should only click on links or attachments if you are certain that the email is genuine and the content is safe.
Thanks Bhaskar,
Fascinating field of study indeed.
Fig 2 in this review suggests possibly significant radiative impact. Getting to the bottom of the diurnal cycle in aerosol emissions might inform ongoing brightening methods and inspire new ones. This study finds enrichment of biomolecules in the ocean surface microlayer relative to the bulk sea water, but the enrichment ratios are rather modest. Given the thinness of the surface layer, this modest enrichment ratio means that the total amount of material in the SML is negligible compared to what is found in the ocean depths. This in turn suggests that the amount of material exogenous delivered, if preferentially aggregating and concentrating at the surface, could have tremendous impact on ocean-atmosphere exchange. Here is one example involving the infamous forever chemicals.
The sea-air interface thus appears to be a high-leverage location. We need to proceed with caution!
Ye
On 9/10/2023 8:19 AM, Bhaskar M V wrote:
Ocean Suface Microlayer ( not plastic), SML, may contribute more.
In nature Diatoms are the most likely contributors to SML.
Diatoms produce lipids and expel it, the lipids float on the water surface.
Growing Diatoms is easier than dumping plastic in oceans.
Regards
Bhaskar
On Sun, 10 Sept 2023, 16:32 Ye Tao, <t...@rowland.harvard.edu> wrote:
Hi Tom,
Thanks for sharing this unique and intriguing study.
The paper suggests that ocean surface micro plastic concentrations between 1-5 g/m2 would have a measurable increase over the baseline. If someone were to propose this as a way to brightening the planet, then a lot of plastics would be needed. 1.5 g/m2 as the "target" steady state concentration, global ocean would contain at its surface 540 Mton of plastics at any given time. This is almost twice the global annual plastic production. And since the lifetime of microplastics is on the order of a couple of years due to oxidative degradation, micro plastic-induced planetary brightening would need ensuring most of our plastics ends up finely ground and floating on the ocean.
In any case, I think we can all agree that this is not a viable path forward. But it is still scientifically interesting to study the actual albedo impact. I suspect CERES data coupled with in situ plastic concentration measurements by boats operated by the several nonprofits tackling ocean plastic problem could help to put some number on global albedo impact. People who know those nonprofits should perhaps reach out.
Cheers,
Ye
On 9/9/2023 2:16 PM, Tom Goreau wrote:
The author’s response seems to be that even though we are fast approaching the point where there will be more plastic than fish in the ocean, it may stabilize ocean foam and increase albedo.
From: Peter Fischer <peter....@hest.ethz.ch>
Date: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 1:59 PM
To: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Subject: AlbedoHi Tom,
If at all a). b) and c) need much higher concentrations. And a) only if the particle are primarily hydrophobic and anisotropic in shape: Round, hydrophilic particles normally stabilize foams. With most plastic garbage being hydrophilic and milled down (maybe not into a spherical shape but at least having smooth surfaces), we propose that microplastic is stabilizing sea foam i.e. increase albedo.
Best, p
Dear Peter,
Thanks!
The first time we saw plastic while diving it was a shock, but no surprise because the mangroves were the garbage dumps.
Now we see more and more on every dive.
Boaters only see what floats on the top, but we divers see it all through the water column and all over the bottom as well!
Best wishes,
Tom
From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Date: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 12:22 PM
To: Sev Clarke <sevc...@icloud.com>, Ye Tao <t...@rowland.harvard.edu>, Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>, Stephen Salter <S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk>
Cc: Robert Tulip <rob...@rtulip.net>, healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, NOAC <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>, geoengineering <geoengi...@googlegroups.com>, Anton Keskinen <keskin...@gmail.com>, Ellen Haaslahti <el...@operaatioarktis.fi>, Cziczo, Daniel James <djcz...@purdue.edu>
Subject: Re: [geo] Recording of HPAC meeting with Anton Keskinen, Arctic Momentum ConferenceFor Albedo modification fans:
This paper just received says that plastic pollution in the sea acts to increase foam at the surface.
I’ve asked the author if he thinks it significantly decreases 1) Albedo and 2) CO2 Exchange, and 3) Temperature Transfer through the double boundary layers.
Tom
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