Arctic ice loss worse than IPCC predictions

[Sam Carana]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to release the
third of three reports into the causes, consequences and mitigation of
global warming in Thailand this week. It's position is that the Arctic
could be ice-free in summer by the latter part of the 21st century.

However, research conducted by the U.S.-based National Center for
Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado's National Snow
and Ice Data Center, demonstrates that the 18 models on which the IPCC
has based its current recommendations could already be out of date --
the retreat of the ice could already be 30 years ahead of the IPCC's
worst case scenario.

The IPCC simulated a loss in September ice cover of 2.5% per decade
from 1953 to 2006, with a worst case loss of 5.4%. The above
scientists discovered that the actual average September ice loss is
already 7.8%, while the rate of deterioration is accelerating, topping
9% per decade since 1979. It seems that the IPCC simulations have not
fully take into account the impact of increased levels of carbon
dioxide emissions in the atmosphere, the researchers believe.

The findings were released on April 30, at:
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070430_StroeveGRL.html
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

Cheers!
Sam Carana