Explain Why Counting Cards Works… Well, It Doesn’t… Never Did and Never Will!
Ion Saliu
You’ve heard of Norman
Wattenberger. He wrote a book on blackjack. He also sells blackjack
software dedicated to the fraudulent cult of card counting. He
administers also a forum dedicated to blackjack. Some people even pay a
subscription fee to access all areas of his forum.
One new member posted a question in Norm Wattenberger’s forum:
“Explain why
Counting Cards works
Can someone explain to me why card counting works? If I'm only ever winning
46% of my hands, how can I possibly win regardless of the count if on any given
bet I have a 53% chance of losing it?”
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?46147-Explain-why-Counting-Cards-works&p=316290&viewfull=1#post316290
I chipped in at some point:
Ape, you are to be commended. You raised an issue that is not welcomed in blackjack forums. Fact, I was banned in this forum because I had a run-in with an “immortal” of card counting, Don "Vito" Schlesinger. I found out the other day (a break from the Olympics) that my ban was lifted. No email or notice of banning or unbanning.
You saying “Im flatting the table minimum, regardless of the count.” You missed the whole point of card counting. The essence of counting: the player must increase the bet size in positive counts. Flatting is a must in negative or neutral counts.
That’s where the problem starts. No matter what, you must increase your bet in all positive counts. But you won't benefit in all such situations, not even 50-50. In other words, you still lose a majority of bets in positive counts. But because your bet is higher, overall, you lose more money than playing basic strategy flatting.
So, beware that a card counter can lose more money than a regular player. You heard of Ken Uston, the god of card counting. He writes in his bible, “Million Dollar Blackjack” –
“Two of the best counters I know played in Europe for 61 days, full time, and were down $30,000. The same two players dropped $156,000 in two weeks in Atlantic City in late 1979 in a highly favorable game.”
Good counting might help you when altering the basic strategy. A high positive count in hi-lo can help with insurance. It also gives a better chance at a natural 21. But don’t bet on a better chance of a blackjack in every situation of a positive count. Or else you might drop $156,000 in two weeks. And this you should never ignore Nobody in this community is a card counting pro; or a professional blackjack player. The days of professional bj players are long gone.
The original link of my now-defunct
post:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?46147-Explain-why-Counting-Cards-works&p=316328&viewfull=1#post316328
The forum admin, Norman Wattenberger,
himself an author of blackjack books and software, responded in his caustic
style. Now, he erased his own posts, as he usually does when something throws
him in muddy waters. This was the link to Norm’s now-defunct post in three
points:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?46147-Explain-why-Counting-Cards-works&p=316329&viewfull=1#post316329
I responded. If I may chip in without being backed-off, as it were! I would respond point to point.
1. C’mon! I was kidding! I played with words based on names. Who could believe I accused two notable members here as being “mafiosi”?!
2. That “someone lost money” is none other than the “god of card counting”, Kenny! He even created counting systems. And he referred to the year 1979 when blackjack was a really great game in AC! All games stand-17 and BJ paying 3-2. Spreads of at least 1-200! BTW – How much did you lose way back when? Kidding again… looks like one must always make that disclaimer here…
3. Name me just ONE pro. Just one with the simplest of evidence. I’m sure you are not one. You gotta take good care of the herders here. Day and night, all kinds of random herders! I’m also 100% sure no mafioso is a professional blackjack player… or roulette player for that matter.
“If you don’t break the box, you never get the content.” (An Anonymous 12. He was referring to boxes of whiskey. A sarcastic sig in response to Norman Wattenberger’s signature)
The original poster wrote another
message.
“Welcome Back, [toolyp… it was my handle there]. It's Apex not Ape. But I
digress ... I am not missing the point at all. I believe counting works. I
would like to see the percentage proof that it does. Let's reverse the
question. If on any random BJ hand I have a 46% chance of winning, if the count
is negative 15 - do my odds of winning (expressed in a percentage) go down?”
His post is still live:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?46147-Explain-why-Counting-Cards-works&p=316331&viewfull=1#post316331
I responded –Thanks, Ape! Kidding again as I did in that “Cosa nostra” thing. Humor does good to gamblers. Otherwise, all those losses would ruin a life.
I don’t think anybody anywhere can give you the percentages you are asking for. You can do it manually at home. Get 6 decks of cards and remove an amount of 10s to five you -15. Do first for heads-up. Notice the results. Gotta do it many, many times. Norm would suggest billions of times… kidding again!
But again, people here told you card counting doesn’t change the odds of winning hands. They say unanimously that your odds of winning money will increase. And that’s because you bet more money in favorable situations (positive counts).
And I say again, there is a flaw there. You won’t win necessarily in every favorable situation. Your best chance is in heads-up play. The more players at the table the lower your expectation is to “be hit” by the favorable situations. Think how many natural 21s could be possible even in a count like +15. It is impossible to see 7 players with 7 blackjacks!
The natural 21 is the real advantage in positive counts (I only speak of the hi-lo system). Other pundits here listed other advantages as well. Only one other thing makes sense to me: insurance. It's advantageous to take insurance if high counts (hi lo).
Other presumed advantages seem illogical to me.
1) Dealer bust. In positive counts
dealer busts less. She has better chances at pat hands, so no need to hit.
2) More double-down hands. In high counts the player
gets more pat hands. You can’t double-down on 10+10. Actually, the chance to
get double-down hands is much better in negative counts: 6+4, 6+5, 7+3,4 8+2/3,
etc.
3) More split-pairs hands. Same as per above. You can’t
slit 10+10; the other players would jump all over you if you did! The best
spit-pair situations occur in negative counts.
All I’m saying is to take everything with a grain of salt. Even the Don “Vito” Schlesinger’s indices. Altering basic strategy occurs in very rare situations, when the true count is rarely that high.
Waterburger response was again caustic
and offending, as he usually behaves when his back is against the wall:
“False or irrelevant, and/or just plain silly.”
My response (you won’t see it, as it
was deleted by the coward):
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?46147-Explain-why-Counting-Cards-works&p=316338&viewfull=1#post316338
False or irrelevant, and/or just plain
silly? Point by point s’il vous plaît? (Watching the Paris Olympic
Games? Your “blow” made me feel like that woman boxer facing the “male” woman!)
1. ?
2. ?
3. ?
Btw-
Congrats for the nomination in the 2024
Blackjack Hall of Fame. (What a travesty! Blackjack Hall of Flame!)
“If you don’t break the box, you never get the content.” (An Anonymous 12. He was referring to boxes of whiskey. You made me drink straight again! Kidding, don’t feel guilty.)
No answer from Stormy Normy!
I came back with another post. It was
my last. Coward Norman Wattenberger deleted it in minutes. Soon thereafter, he
deleted all my posts and banned me.
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?46147-Explain-why-Counting-Cards-works&p=316342&viewfull=1#post316342
There is a lot more as per 2. The Internet is chockfull of facts. I add but a few card counting authors. Keep also in mind they referred to periods when blackjack was a game a lot more favorable to the plyer.
2.1. Lance Humble, “The World's
Greatest Blackjack Book”:
“Three first-rate counters playing the Hi-Opt II lost over $60,000 in less
than 3 weeks. There is new research going on concerning what happens when the
count is extremely positive. The player is actually at a disadvantage when the
count is a very high plus.”
2.2.1. Arnold Snyder, “Casino Player
Magazine, November 1997”:
“When I self-published my first book, ‘The Blackjack Formula’, in 1980, and
advertised it in Gambling Times magazine with the catchy, upbeat slogan: ‘Card
Counters Beware’ … stating in the ad that most of the blackjack games available
in the casinos of the world were unbeatable with any card counting system … It
is easier to make a living writing about this game than it is playing it. I
have tried both, and I much prefer the keyboard to the cold green felt.”
2.2.2. Undoubtedly Don Schlesinger and
Norm Wattenberger made significantly more money as blackjack publishers than
blackjack professional players! Virtually, they never played blackjack in a
real casino.
2.3. Bryce Carlson, “Blackjack For
Blood”:
“Bad runs of luck can, and will,
sometimes dominate your results for hours and hours on end. I have personally
experienced losing streaks that lasted for over 7,500 hands.”
2.4. Edwin Silberstang, “Winning
Blackjack For The Serious Player”:
“Every time the deck was favorable and I had a big bet out, I'd lose. When I
had a minimum bet with a super-negative deck, I'd get a blackjack.”
Lest we forget the topic of this thread. An honest blackjack player asked an honest question: “Explain why Counting Cards works”. A few members chipped in with honest answers. That includes me. I went in more detail. And I honestly advised the OP: “All I’m saying is to take everything with a grain of salt.”
Was it warranted for none other than a G Man to call me a troll? Is that fair, Norm? Is it fair for a lawman to be above the law?
…
“vBulletin Message
You have been banned for the following reason:
No reason was specified.
Date the ban will be lifted: Private”
Such despicable crooks and frauds these card-counting authors/developers/vendors are! They push unassuming players into the gambling abyss!
Read also:
- Blackjack Card Counting Systems: Reversed Count, ABCBest Cards-Count System
- Blackjack Probability, Odds for Natural 21 BJ, Formulas,Calculate
- Blackjack Strategy, System Test, High Roller Blackjack
Ion Saliu
Let’s summarize the reasons why the card counting strategy works — according to the cult-followers, say it the fanatics of counting cards. They invoke 6 reasons. I dissect the 6 reasons one by one. I already touched a few points above.
1) More blackjacks (Natural 21: A+Ten). You're paid 3:2 when you get one, the dealer is paid still 1:1.
2) More insurance opportunities. You can bet insurance when the dealer has an Ace up. The dealer can't do this.
- These two points make sense mathematically. There are more Ten-valued cards in the deck, therefore the probability of getting a BJ (natural-21) is higher.
- However, that probability is very low. It is some 5% at the beginning of the deck. It doesn’t increase above 8% in very high counts.
- The probability of insurance opportunities is even lower, much lower than getting a natural blackjack. It is a good bet, as it were, to establish the insurance occurrence to ¼ of bj natural. So, no better than 2% opportunities to take insurance.
- And here is the rub. The card-counting doctrine requires an increase in player’s bet in all situations with high (positive) counts. The expectation, however, is at best 8% to benefit from a positive count. That is, you win 1 of 12 hands of higher bets. Which means, you lose some 11 hands with high bets, while you hoped to win. That’s why the card counters arrive at situations when they lose severely more than basic strategy players.
- And this is also very important. The more players at the table, the lower the probability for an individual player to get natural 21. You, I mean you, have to share the probability to get A+T with the rest of the table. Maybe just one or two players at the table will get the benefit of that elusive bj 21 when the count is high enough!
- Read more:
- Blackjack Probability, Odds: Natural 21, Formulas, Calculate.
- Blackjack Insurance Bet Favorable to All Players.
3) The dealers bust more in high counts when he/she has a stiff hand. You the player do NOT have to hit these hands.
- Don “Vito” Schlesinger was the only one with a correct point in the “Norman Bates BJ Debacle” –
- “Actually, the dealer busts slightly less in high counts than in neutral ones. In high counts, when he shows a 2-6, he busts more, but, then, it's harder to show 2-6 in high counts, no? Actually, the dealer busts slightly less in high counts than in neutral ones. In high counts, when he shows a 2-6, he busts more, but, then, it's harder to show 2-6 in high counts, no?” EXACTOMUNDO!
- The worst part is you, the player, still lose your hand immediately when you bust. The dealer still plays the last hand in the round. She might bust, but it is pointless if the players at the table had already concluded their hands (including busting).
- Read more: Blackjack Dealer Bust: Odds, Probability.
4) Double downs. You can double your bet in advantageous situations. The dealer can't.
- This is absolutely the worst argument of the card-counting fanatics!
- A high count means a deck with more Tens. That’s the basis of counting cards. The player looks for situations with an excess of 10s.
- However, no double-down hand in blackjack has a Ten in its configuration. More 10s means fewer double-down hands.
- Since doubling-down hands have no Tens but small cards (2–6), it is undeniable mathematically that there are clearly more double-down hands in negative counts. 6+3, 6+4, 6+5, 5+5, 5+4, etc. Only a fool would double down on 10+3, 10+4, 10+7, etc.
- One reason why card-counters complain that they win more often in low (negative) counts. Nonetheless, they missed the opportunities to bet bigger because the counts were negative!
- Read more: Double Down: Best Blackjack Strategy Card, Chart.
5) Splits. You can split pairs (8,8 vs 4). The dealer can't.
- The argument goes as per 4). There are clearly fewer split-pair opportunities when the count is higher in 10-valued cards. You can’t split 10+10. If you do, other players at the table will get mad at you. I was in big trouble once. I split once 10+10 and I “saved” the dealer from busting! I’ll never do it again!
- Keep also in mind that split-pair occurrences are far less frequent than double-downs. And, again, there are more split-pairs chances in negative counts: from 2+2 to 6+6. They clearly outnumber the Ace+Ace situations (when you only get one more card on each split Ace).
- Read more: Split Pairs: Best Blackjack Strategy Card, Chart.
6) Surrender (when applicable). You can surrender bad hands in these situations (e.g., 16 vs 10). The dealer can't.
- The occurrence is far less frequent than even splitting pairs. And, again, you get a better chance at a pat hand when there are more Tens and fewer small cards in the deck.
- And, remember, not many casinos offer the surrender option.
Norman Wattenberger himself etched his “seal of approval” in that infamous “Norman Bates BJ Debacle”:
- “Betting is important and has been said, there are more splits, insurance, and doubling at higher counts increasing the amount won.”
No wonder Norman “Bates” Wattenberger and his buddy Don “Vito” Schlesinger never played blackjack seriously. They have known for decades the truths I exposed above. They and other blackjack developers continue to deceive people regarding the “benefits” of counting cards. And I must say it again: They push unassuming players into the gambling abyss!
· Read more: Norman Wattenberger, Gambling Formula, Randomness, Abuseof Laws, Narcissism of Bogus Complaints.
Ion Saliu
Axiomatic One:
As I said at the onset, Norman “Bates” Wattenberger is in the notorious habit of erasing his own posts. He usually does it when something throws him in muddy waters. Many visitors to his sites will bring to his attention my webpage dedicated to him, or this very thread.
There are people who laugh at him for the aberrations I presented here. He gets mad at me and other people who do the same thing. That is, exposing his limitless stupidity. As you read on my webpage, Stormy Normy fumes and files all kinds of legal complaints. (He once emailed 19 legally threatening messages to another forum administrator!) In the process, he wipes off some embarrassing materials. Such as the facts I exposed here.
And thusly, I took screenshots in his forum as evidence (he loves juridically-threatening terms!) For best viewing, click on the attachments in chronological order.
Beware of the extremely high counts!
Ion “Axiomatic Parpaluck” Saliu
Founder of Blackjack Justice-for-All
